Opinion
Private credit funds under $10B in AUM will struggle to succeed today
“I think it'd be really tough today to be a player in private credit that's a billion or a five billion or even a ten billion dollar player. It's tough to make it work. So you need to be a player of scale.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
PE sponsors have not exploited looser private credit loan documentation against Antares
“The documents are certainly a little looser than they were 10 years ago, but we have not seen sponsors really take advantage of those.”
Opinion
$100M EBITDA deals are now likely financed through private credit, not syndicated
“If a deal comes in our shop today, a hundred million dollar EBITDA company, there's a very good chance that's going to go private credit, not syndicated.”
Insight
Asset managers benefit managing 10–15 large SMAs over 80 small ones
“So it probably is going to be better to have, in example, 10 to 15 really, really significant separately managed accounts versus trying to manage 80 small ones. To me, a small separately managed account is anything under three hundred million dollars.”
Insight
Antares gains a diligence edge by evaluating deals alongside multiple PE sponsors
“What we may gain is if we're going to be seeing the deal from more sponsors, so maybe some of our competitors are seeing it from four or five, and we're seeing it from eight. And a couple of the ones that we're seeing it from have operating partners that bring…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2028
The direct lending market will grow roughly 15% annually through 2028
“So I think the private credit market's going to grow direct lending by, let's say, 15% a year for the next five years.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Antares portfolio revenue and EBITDA continue growing despite higher interest rates
“If you look across the portfolio, revenue in EBITDA is still growing organically.”
Insight
US private credit firms must enter Europe via acquisition, not organic builds
“I wouldn't start a European lending business from scratch and grow it organically because I just think there's so many different countries. Each country's different. It's not like doing business in the U S so you need to have critical mass. And to me, you ente…”
Assertion Partly supported
MassMutual initially backed Antares Capital with $1 billion
“He set up a meeting, and within a month, we started Antares Capital. So it was a very, very quick process with MassMutual in terms of getting it approved, and they initially backed us with a billion dollars, and we owned the company with them.”
Assertion Supported
Antares Capital grew from $12B balance sheet to $64B AUM under CPPIB
“So CPP bought, let's say, 12, thirteen billion dollar balance sheet. Today we manage sixty four billion.”
Assertion Supported
Unitranche deal sizes grew from $300M in 2016 to multi-billion today
“In 2000, let's say, 16, a three or a four hundred million dollar unit tranche was a pretty decent sized deal. By 2019, that was six hundred million dollars, and as you know today, it's multi-billion dollar unit tranches.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Up to 20 PE sponsors contact Antares on a single auction deal
“If a deal is an auction deal, we may be seeing that from as little as two or three sponsors to as much as 20 sponsors. Maybe contacting us on that one deal.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Competing private credit lenders differ by just 25–50 bps on terms
“We're not underwriting really tough credits. We're not a distress shop, so we're underwriting really solid market-leading businesses. So maybe on the spread, there could be a 25 basis point difference, and maybe on the fee, 25 to 50 basis point difference betw…”
Disclosure
Healthcare, software, and business services make up 50% of Antares' portfolio
“Our largest industries are healthcare software and business services. They're about 50% of our portfolio.”
Disclosure
Antares Capital currently finances approximately 480 companies
“So today, that portfolio, if you take all the companies that we finance today, it's about 480 companies.”
Disclosure
Antares plans fundraising expansion in Europe, Asia, and wealth channels
“We're going to expand our fundraising, adding people in Europe, adding folks down the road in Asia, entering the high net worth sector.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
NAV lending is established in Europe and just emerging in the US
“That's pretty big today in Europe, and it's just catching on here in the U.S.”
