The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 963 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 102 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Grantham: The AI bubble will break, led down by Nvidia
“This is exactly where you'd expect the bubble to break, and you would expect, other things being even, that it will be let down by NVIDIA, followed closely by the other giants.”
The private capital secondary market will reach $1 trillion by 2031
“I'm on the record for saying that the secondary market is going to get to a trillion dollars by 2031. Whenever I say that, the first reaction is, you're crazy. And I've heard that a few times, I guess, in my career. But I have a deep conviction around this pre…”
Grantham: The market bubble will likely break in weeks or months
“So I think this is an indicator, not a certainty, but a strong possibility that we are quite close to the bubble breaking in terms of psychology. Perhaps a matter of weeks or months, not years.”
Fisher (2020): At 5% interest rates, every real estate investor goes bankrupt
“No, not a chance. They go to five to six percent. Every real estate investor that we know is bankrupt. They're not hanging on. They're broke and dead. And every home builder in America has no customers. That's a fact.”
Peters: Private equity is done and managers will emerge looking terrible
“This is the kind of thing that may make me look foolish. I think private equity is done. I think that it will always be an investment style like it has for over the course of my career. It was just LBO investing when I started, I guess now it's private equity,…”
Grantham: South Korea Will Cease Being a Viable State Within 50 Years
“That South Korea cannot be a viable political entity in as little as 4050 years. Cannot.”
Grantham: Capitalism Must Change or Humanity Ceases as Successful Species
“Capitalism will either change, or we will cease to exist as a successful species.”
Kleinman: Semi-liquid PE will fail to deliver a good client experience
“It's not going to give the client, i.e. The wealth client, a good experience in the long run.”
Wolfe: AI infrastructure buildout will destroy hundreds of billions in capital
“On the capital market side, you see hundreds of billions of dollars destroyed of people that play the same game that you did back in 2000 with fiber optic cables.”
Gave: US supply disruptions from tariffs will be as bad as COVID-19
“We saw this kind of discrepancy during COVID, and it took the economies a year to get back on their footing. This time, it's going to be just as bad. I don't see how the economy doesn't grind to a standstill. These strict discrepancies are going to be very uni…”
Papic: Trump will likely moderate tariffs to 5-10% rather than 40%
“I think the response is going to be President Trump saying, I was actually going for five to 10% across the board of tariffs, not 40%. Once the market sniffs that out, I think it's very dangerous to be overly bearish on risk assets.”
Gave: US-China negotiations will result in China leaving the Americas and US leaving Asia
“This, I think, will end up being the negotiations with China. China, you get out of the Americas, and we'll get out of Asia. That is a trade that Xi Jinping will be very happy to make.”
Gave: Chinese competition will eliminate profitability across the AI sector
“We also know that when China enters the room, profits walk out, so there's not going to be any profit in AI forever.”
Papic: Europe Will See a Tsunami of LNG Supply Disproving Deindustrialization
“Europe is going to be absolutely drowned in its tsunami wave of LNG supply that will crash on its shores over the next two years. This whole deindustrialization debate is wrong.”
Bessent: Marine Le Pen will become president of France in 18-24 months
“I would predict that in the next 18 or 24 months, Marine Le Pen
The bête noire of European politics is going to be president of France, and she's going to be president of France because the alternative on the left is worse than she is.”
Miller: Overcapitalized renewables will likely destroy multiples of shale capital losses
“I see renewables as just a massively overcapitalized space. It will likely torch capital on multiples of what happened to shale.”
India, not the US, will be the dominant market in the 2020s
“And I don't think the U S is going to be the dominant market in this decade. At this point, it's probably going to be India.”
Assaf: S&P 500 passive funds will likely lag good active managers over 5-10 years
“It probably won't do as well, relatively speaking, over the next five to 10 years as it did over the last five to 10 years relative to good active managers. We believe that. We'll see.”
Giannini: A Broad Distressed Debt Cycle Will Not Materialize
“There's not going to be a distress cycle. Sorry, there'll be some distress deals that are interesting, I'm sure, but you sort of had this period where, oh my gosh, things are going bad, let's raise a distress debt fund, and they still are trying, but just tell…”
Geremia: ESG will cease to be an investment term within three years
“The most exciting to me is that ESG will go away. It will not be an investment term in three years, and it has nothing to do with it not being super important.”
China Will Become Uninvestable If Xi Retains His Current Advisors
“If he stays in power, which it looks like he's going to, and he's got the same people around him, the same advisors, I think China is going to ultimately become an uninvestable market.”
Distressed Russian Assets Will Return 50x Rapidly Upon Any Regime Change
“Just a small amount of investment in those stocks, and some people can retire on it because you're going to make 50 times your money on any regime change in a very quick period of time, so.”
Argentina Might Be the World's Best Performing Market in 2023
“Next year might be the best performing market in the world on the back of that election.”
Dixon: Google and Facebook will become low-growth legacy giants like IBM
“I think they're very likely going to become like IBM and HP and just chugging along and not really doing much new innovative stuff. They'll still be around and they'll still have their services, but I think that their relevance and growth are limited.”
Dixon: Web3 payouts will pass Web2 payouts in next couple years
“I believe we'll see in the next couple of years, web three payouts past web two payouts.”
Layer-2 scaling systems will eventually decouple from Ethereum and become independent
“So yes, these systems are tightly coupled to Ethereum today, but once they get substantial use and substantial capital inside them and all sorts of app developers deploying straight to them, at some point they're going to say, wow, why don't we integrate to a …”
Olaf Carlson-Wee: Every global financial transaction will eventually occur on DeFi
“I really do view it as where every financial transaction in the world will take place.”
Drogen: Bitcoin will not become a global reserve currency or inflation hedge
“The techno libertarians who felt that this could be a new global reserve currency, that it was an inflation hedge, that you could extricate yourself from holding fiat government currency and things like that. I think a lot of people drank that Kool-Aid, and it…”
Libby: Lower-cost ETF equivalents will disrupt traditional venture capital fee structures
“I think that that's going to come to the venture world too. It's been a momentum trade. And so if you're Sequoia or Forerunner or Bessemer, you have services and tools. I think it's going to be hard to prove that you should be getting two in 20 versus an ETF e…”
Gave: As Energy Prices Rise, Europe Will Go Bust
“As the energy price goes up, Europe will go bust.
The only question is at what price?”
Sethi: Startups like Terra and FTX could reach hundreds of billions
“These companies will probably at some point, if they continue to grow at the pace they're growing, could be worth hundreds of billions of dollars.”
Papic: China has peaked as a geopolitical power for the next decade
“So I think that China has peaked as a geopolitical power for the next decade.”
Papic: China will fail to transition away from export dependence
“I'm in a camp that says they're going to fail. They're not going to be able to do it, and they're going to remain as export dependent, if not more.”
Papic: China will run a current account deficit over the next decade
“Which means that over the next decade, China will also be in a current account deficit.”
Papic: The Ukraine war will cleave the Western alliance further, not unite NATO
“There's a view out there that this will help NATO unity. And I really don't think so, Ted. I think that this will actually cleave the Western alliance further.”
Wolfe: The Sahel and Maghreb Will Become Europe's Next Afghanistan
“I believe that that will be the next Afghanistan, particularly for Europe. I think that you will have Mali pulling France in. You will have Belgium being pulled in, you will have the UK and other EU countries adjacently being pulled in, the US being pulled in,…”
Hamed predicts Instagram risks obsolescence due to poor creator monetization
“And we think Instagram is really at risk of going away because the creators on Instagram aren't making enough money to actually make good content.”
Samani: Long-term technical and social gravity trends toward one single chain
“Given both the explicit technical costs and then the softer, squishier social developer experience costs, I think gravity trends towards one chain.”
Visser: Interest rates will remain lower forever, pressuring allocators
“My belief has always been that rates would be stuck at low levels. We're still at that space, and I continue to believe that they'll be not only lower for longer, but lower forever, and that's putting more pressure than ever on allocators”
Visser: There will be no bond market in 30 years
“Well, for governments carrying the interest cost for years, I joked behind closed doors and occasionally on stage where it wasn't being videotaped that there'd be no bonds in 30 years. I still believe that.”
Sternlicht: Amazon Prime will hit $500 once competing retail is gone
“They charge us 75 dollars, and now I think it's a hundred. They'll go to 500 when there's nothing left but Amazon in this country.”
Jensen: Very high chance humanity fails at superhuman AI development
“We only get one chance to develop an intelligence greater than us, and if you do it wrong, it's the end of things, and there's a very, very good chance we're going to do it wrong, just judging by how rarely we as a species get things right the first time.”
Grantham: African migration to Europe will be society's primary political risk
“So I think it will be stress on those areas, and immigration, and the pressure on Europe of millions of Africans attempting to migrate will be the main political risk that we face, and a real threat to the well-being of society.”
Garcia: Bitcoin will drop to its underlying tech value without government backing
“If governments are not going to embrace it honestly, it should go down to just the technology value of it.”
Paul: 10% Chance Bitcoin Suffers Disabling Attack By 2026
“I put it at maybe 10% over the next five years that there is a successful attack on Bitcoin that effectively renders the network temporarily unusable, but unusable in a way where we don't know when the next attack will be.”
Dixon: Decentralized blockchain communities will build tomorrow's social networks
“A lot of the thesis we have with crypto blockchain is that a similar thing will happen with internet services in the same way that almost all software today is made by a group, a community of people who get together and build something. We think the same thing…”