commodities

14 statements across 10 episodes · 7 bullish · 5 bearish · 8 people on the record · first statement Apr 13, 2020 by Sandra Robertson · across every show →

Everything said about commodities, oldest first

Apr 13, 2020 bearish
Opinion
Robertson dismisses commodities as an inflation hedge, calling the concept "nonsense"
“We had again a little flurry with this whole idea that Commodities were good inflation hedge, but we just figured out that was nonsense. So we got rid of those.”
Sandra Robertson Apr 13, 2020 ▶ 38:54 Sandra Robertson – Oxford's Queen of Endowment Management (Capital Allocators, EP.130)
Oct 26, 2020 bullish
Prediction Partly held up
Papic: Dollar will fall, yields rise, and global equities beat US
“Because if Biden or Trump wins from a macro perspective, I think dollars going down, I think ten-year yields are going up. I think U.S. Equities are going to do well, but I think global equities are going to do better. Commodities are also going to do extremel…”
Marko Papic Oct 26, 2020 ▶ 21:30 Marko Papic – Geopolitical Alpha at Clocktower Group (Capital Allocators, EP.161)
Oct 26, 2020 bullish
Insight
Papic: Rewiring global supply chains is growth- and commodity-positive
“I think the rewiring of supply chains is growth positive. It's positive for commodities. You have to build new factories. You have to move stuff around.”
Marko Papic Oct 26, 2020 ▶ 43:15 Marko Papic – Geopolitical Alpha at Clocktower Group (Capital Allocators, EP.161)
Feb 28, 2022 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Papic: Global markets are entering a resilient commodity super cycle
“We are at a cusp of a commodity super cycle, and a recession could obviously curtail that. It would waylay it, but not for a significant period of time.”
Marko Papic Feb 28, 2022 ▶ 39:08 Marko Papic – Geopolitical Shock in a Multi-Polar World (Capital Allocators, EP.237)
Feb 28, 2022 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Papic: Escalation will trigger 1973-style commodity embargoes and stagflation
“And then you're going to start talking about embargoes of commodities, both self-imposed by Russia and perhaps imposed by the West. And then you're talking about inflationary impacts of this conflict being something akin to the 1973 Yom Kippur War, which is de…”
Marko Papic Feb 28, 2022 ▶ 9:05 Marko Papic – Geopolitical Shock in a Multi-Polar World (Capital Allocators, EP.237)
Feb 28, 2022 bullish
Opinion
Papic: Commodities offer the best downside portfolio protection in stagflation
“And ironically, I think the best downside risk protection is commodities, which is weird because commodities should be correlated to growth. So when growth suffers, commodities should suffer with them. That's not really a good hedge the way bonds were. But I t…”
Marko Papic Feb 28, 2022 ▶ 16:52 Marko Papic – Geopolitical Shock in a Multi-Polar World (Capital Allocators, EP.237)
Mar 24, 2022 positive
Insight
Heller: Whiskey barrel pricing predictably appreciates compared to traditional commodities
“You never know how steep or how flat that aging curve might be, but it is typically positively sloped. Whereas some other commodities can be up, can be down, you know, if you didn't sell your corn or your wheat or your timber this year, next year you might be …”
Chris Heller Mar 24, 2022 ▶ 20:20 Chris Heller - Weird Alternatives at Cordillera Investment Partners (Manager Meetings, EP.28)
Jun 20, 2022 positive
Insight
Forman: Tokens represent the fifth global asset class
“Tokens are really interesting because they're very much a new asset class. They're the fifth asset class in the world. Pre-tokens, there were equities, fixed income, currencies, and commodities, and really every asset could be put into one of those four catego…”
Ben Forman Jun 20, 2022 ▶ 55:09 Ben Forman – Opportunities in DeFi (EP.256, Crypto for Institutions 2, EP.03)
Nov 7, 2022 negative
Disclosure
Miah: We explicitly avoid commodities to focus on other African macro themes
“Commodities is the only one where we explicitly avoid and everything else is game. Everything else is open to investments, but we do maybe have a bias towards areas or sectors which are exposed to the big themes in Africa.”
Farouk Miah Nov 7, 2022 ▶ 51:50 Colin Smith and Farouk Miah - Empty Rooms: Investing in Africa (Capital Allocators, EP. 279)
Aug 21, 2023 bearish
Disclosure
Miranda: Partners Capital does not invest in commodities
“That was a big learning, so we don't do commodities today.”
Stan Miranda Aug 21, 2023 ▶ 20:28 Stan Miranda – Modern Endowment Model at Partners Capital (EP.334)
Aug 21, 2023 bearish
Insight
Commodities trend downward over time due to economies of scale
“Because you learn about commodities, there's no yield, there's no income. So over time, they actually go down because of economies of scale.”
Stan Miranda Aug 21, 2023 ▶ 19:59 Stan Miranda – Modern Endowment Model at Partners Capital (EP.334)
Oct 2, 2023 neutral
Disclosure
BAM avoided physical commodity trading initially because it takes years to build
“For example, you know, physical trading takes a long time to build out. We didn't want to start with that.”
Dmitry Balyasny Oct 2, 2023 ▶ 20:53 Dmitry Balyasny – Multi-Strategy Platform at BAM (EP.341)
Jan 29, 2024 bullish
Disclosure
Future Fund Added Rare Earths and Metals to Hedge Stagflation
“We think commodities are one of the few things that have worked through stagflationary periods and inflationary periods, and we see no reason to think the future will be different, but you've got an added tailwind now that in the decarbonized economy, a lot of…”
Raphael Arndt Jan 29, 2024 ▶ 18:28 Raphael Arndt – The Death of Traditional Portfolio Construction? (EP.365)
Apr 14, 2025 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Papic: Only Two Emerging Market Macro Hedge Funds Exist Today
“There are two macro hedge funds dedicated to emerging markets today. Two of them. There's none doing commodities.”
Marko Papic Apr 14, 2025 ▶ 42:48 Geopolitical Uncertainty – James Aitken, Louis-Vincent Gave, and Marko Papic (EP.440)
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