Commodities

topic on 6 shows · 20 statements across 16 episodes

Masters of Scale BigDeal Lenny's Podcast Capital Allocators Catalyst All-In

20 statements about Commodities, every show

AI foundation models are not fungible commodities
“I think for people who believe the models are commodities or totally fungible, you just haven't actually used the models.”
Anish Acharya Sep 6, 2026 ▶ 26:52 Why companies are becoming a series of loops | Anish Acharya (a16z)
MASTERS OF SCALE Prediction Not checkable as stated
Krishna: Foundation AI models will become commodities within one to three years
“I think foundation models are going to become commodities. By the way, not that far out. Is it a year? Is it two years? Is it three years? Commodities doesn't mean that they don't have value. Gold is a commodity. So is iron. So commodities means that there is …”
Arvind Krishna Jun 23, 2026 ▶ 6:44 IBM's $10 billion bet on what comes after AI (with CEO Arvind Krishna) | Masters of Scale
CATALYST Insight
Rountree: Selling low-cost commodities offsets deep tech technical risk
“Why I love commodities is because It offsets the technical risk we're taking with less market risk, because I know if I'm selling a commodity, i.e., my product is molecularly identical to the competitors, but I have a cost advantage, I know you can sell that.”
Ian Rountree Jan 8, 2026 ▶ 39:39 The VC case for 'full stack deeptech'
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Contradicted
Papic: Only Two Emerging Market Macro Hedge Funds Exist Today
“There are two macro hedge funds dedicated to emerging markets today. Two of them. There's none doing commodities.”
Marko Papic Apr 14, 2025 ▶ 42:48 Geopolitical Uncertainty – James Aitken, Louis-Vincent Gave, and Marko Papic (EP.440)
ALL-IN Assertion Partly supported
Dalio: All commodities decline in real terms over long periods
“Commodities, by the way, in real terms, all commodities, every single commodity, in real terms over long decline, long periods of time have declined because of productivity.”
Ray Dalio Jan 28, 2025 ▶ 30:24 Ray Dalio: US Debt Spiral, How to Avoid Disaster | The All-In Interview
ALL-IN Disclosure
Paul Tudor Jones is long gold, Bitcoin, commodities, and the NASDAQ
“I'm long gold. I'm long Bitcoin. I think commodities are so ridiculously under owned. So I'm long commodities. I think most young people find their inflation hedges via the NASDAQ. That's also been great. It's probably some combination. I probably have some ba…”
Paul Tudor Jones Oct 25, 2024 ▶ 14:16 Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks
BIGDEAL Assertion Supported
Lyon: US Commodity Whole Food Marketing Budget Is $750 Million
“All of the farmers, all of the producers pool their money together. Their collective marketing budget is seven hundred fifty million. All commodities. This includes beef, this includes chicken, this includes dairy, this includes corn, soy, etc.”
Dr. Gabrielle Lyon Jul 23, 2024 ▶ 42:35 How to Burn Fat, Build Muscle, and Live Longer | Dr. Gabrielle Lyon & Navy Seal Chris Petkas
Future Fund Added Rare Earths and Metals to Hedge Stagflation
“We think commodities are one of the few things that have worked through stagflationary periods and inflationary periods, and we see no reason to think the future will be different, but you've got an added tailwind now that in the decarbonized economy, a lot of…”
Raphael Arndt Jan 29, 2024 ▶ 18:28 Raphael Arndt – The Death of Traditional Portfolio Construction? (EP.365)
BAM avoided physical commodity trading initially because it takes years to build
“For example, you know, physical trading takes a long time to build out. We didn't want to start with that.”
Dmitry Balyasny Oct 2, 2023 ▶ 20:53 Dmitry Balyasny – Multi-Strategy Platform at BAM (EP.341)
Commodities trend downward over time due to economies of scale
“Because you learn about commodities, there's no yield, there's no income. So over time, they actually go down because of economies of scale.”
Stan Miranda Aug 21, 2023 ▶ 19:59 Stan Miranda – Modern Endowment Model at Partners Capital (EP.334)
Miranda: Partners Capital does not invest in commodities
“That was a big learning, so we don't do commodities today.”
Stan Miranda Aug 21, 2023 ▶ 20:28 Stan Miranda – Modern Endowment Model at Partners Capital (EP.334)
Miah: We explicitly avoid commodities to focus on other African macro themes
“Commodities is the only one where we explicitly avoid and everything else is game. Everything else is open to investments, but we do maybe have a bias towards areas or sectors which are exposed to the big themes in Africa.”
Farouk Miah Nov 7, 2022 ▶ 51:50 Colin Smith and Farouk Miah - Empty Rooms: Investing in Africa (Capital Allocators, EP. 279)
Forman: Tokens represent the fifth global asset class
“Tokens are really interesting because they're very much a new asset class. They're the fifth asset class in the world. Pre-tokens, there were equities, fixed income, currencies, and commodities, and really every asset could be put into one of those four catego…”
Ben Forman Jun 20, 2022 ▶ 55:09 Ben Forman – Opportunities in DeFi (EP.256, Crypto for Institutions 2, EP.03)
Heller: Whiskey barrel pricing predictably appreciates compared to traditional commodities
“You never know how steep or how flat that aging curve might be, but it is typically positively sloped. Whereas some other commodities can be up, can be down, you know, if you didn't sell your corn or your wheat or your timber this year, next year you might be …”
Chris Heller Mar 24, 2022 ▶ 20:20 Chris Heller - Weird Alternatives at Cordillera Investment Partners (Manager Meetings, EP.28)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Prediction Not checkable as stated
Papic: Escalation will trigger 1973-style commodity embargoes and stagflation
“And then you're going to start talking about embargoes of commodities, both self-imposed by Russia and perhaps imposed by the West. And then you're talking about inflationary impacts of this conflict being something akin to the 1973 Yom Kippur War, which is de…”
Marko Papic Feb 28, 2022 ▶ 9:05 Marko Papic – Geopolitical Shock in a Multi-Polar World (Capital Allocators, EP.237)
Papic: Commodities offer the best downside portfolio protection in stagflation
“And ironically, I think the best downside risk protection is commodities, which is weird because commodities should be correlated to growth. So when growth suffers, commodities should suffer with them. That's not really a good hedge the way bonds were. But I t…”
Marko Papic Feb 28, 2022 ▶ 16:52 Marko Papic – Geopolitical Shock in a Multi-Polar World (Capital Allocators, EP.237)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Prediction Not checkable as stated
Papic: Global markets are entering a resilient commodity super cycle
“We are at a cusp of a commodity super cycle, and a recession could obviously curtail that. It would waylay it, but not for a significant period of time.”
Marko Papic Feb 28, 2022 ▶ 39:08 Marko Papic – Geopolitical Shock in a Multi-Polar World (Capital Allocators, EP.237)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Prediction Partly held up
Papic: Dollar will fall, yields rise, and global equities beat US
“Because if Biden or Trump wins from a macro perspective, I think dollars going down, I think ten-year yields are going up. I think U.S. Equities are going to do well, but I think global equities are going to do better. Commodities are also going to do extremel…”
Marko Papic Oct 26, 2020 ▶ 21:30 Marko Papic – Geopolitical Alpha at Clocktower Group (Capital Allocators, EP.161)
Papic: Rewiring global supply chains is growth- and commodity-positive
“I think the rewiring of supply chains is growth positive. It's positive for commodities. You have to build new factories. You have to move stuff around.”
Marko Papic Oct 26, 2020 ▶ 43:15 Marko Papic – Geopolitical Alpha at Clocktower Group (Capital Allocators, EP.161)
Robertson dismisses commodities as an inflation hedge, calling the concept "nonsense"
“We had again a little flurry with this whole idea that Commodities were good inflation hedge, but we just figured out that was nonsense. So we got rid of those.”
Sandra Robertson Apr 13, 2020 ▶ 38:54 Sandra Robertson – Oxford's Queen of Endowment Management (Capital Allocators, EP.130)

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