Assertion Supported
Eremenko: Lithium-ion batteries will never power planes larger than 10 passengers
“And lithium ion batteries, even if you take them to their absolute theoretical maximum, You are never going to fly an airplane that's bigger than about 10 people and a couple hundred kilometers distance.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Universal Hydrogen expects to retrofit half the target fleet by early 2030s
“We would expect to be able to get through at least half that fleet by the early 20 thirties.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2029
Eremenko: Boeing and Airbus must choose hydrogen over hydrocarbons by late 2020s
“In the late 20 twenties, I think it will be absolutely impossible for either of those two companies to say, we're going to launch a brand new airplane that will burn hydrocarbons, right?”
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2032
Eremenko: Commercial hydrogen flights will operate globally before 2032
“Long before a decade from now, guy, you will be able to fly on hydrogen with a major regional airline, both in the U S or in Europe or in other parts of the world. For a ticket price that will be equivalent or lower, with the comfort knowing that the airplane …”
Assertion Supported
Eremenko: Global aviation produces more carbon emissions than Germany
“Aviation is a relatively small fraction but that few percent is still more than the country of Germany.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2027
Eremenko: The ATR 72 will be the first commercial hydrogen airliner
“The airplane we are specifically targeting as the first hydrogen airplane, and which will be the largest hydrogen airplane to enter service, will be the ATR 72, which is about a 50 to 60 passenger airplane, and flies about a thousand kilometers.”
Opinion
Eremenko: Hydrogen narrow-body aircraft do not need blended-wing airframes
“The volume necessary to power the kinds of flights that these airplanes fly is quite manageable within the confines of an existing sort of tube and wing airplane configuration. You got to lengthen the tube a little bit. You have to add a few meters of length i…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Eremenko: Second-generation electric air taxis will use hydrogen fuel cells
“I'm willing to bet as a second generation, after the first generation is battery powered, the second generation will be hydrogen fuel cell powered.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Eremenko: Universal Hydrogen will fly first retrofit ATR by 2025
“Yes, we are. The long lead item for that is FAA certification, and we have been quite conscientious about bringing the FAA on the journey with us, right? Making sure that we don't just design it and throw it over the wall and say, please certify this, right?”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Eremenko: Without hydrogen, cutting flight traffic will become only decarbonization option
“Today. It's a few percent of global CO two emissions very quickly. I think aviation will start to stick out as a sore thumb, right? As an industry that is incredibly difficult to decarbonize and doesn't have a credible decarbonization roadmap, at which point t…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Eremenko: Paris Agreement drove exponential cost decrease in green hydrogen
“And one of the effects that the Paris Agreement has had is a massively catalytic effect on the production of renewable electricity capacity globally. And that's what's been driving a massive, Exponential decrease in the cost of green hydrogen over the past yea…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Eremenko: Building global airport hydrogen infrastructure would cost trillions
“You can't repurpose existing gasoline or kerosene jet fuel infrastructure. You got to recreate it from scratch, and hydrogen molecules are very small. So this is a fairly expensive proposition, and if you multiply it out by the scale of the commercial air tran…”
Disclosure
Universal Hydrogen plans to load modular hydrogen capsules like Amazon packages
“So our idea was let's turn hydrogen into cargo instead of jet fuel, right? So let's put hydrogen in these modular capsules and move these modular capsules the same way we move Amazon packages, right? So let's move hydrogen through intermodal freight. And when …”
Insight
Eremenko: Long-haul hydrogen flight requires blended-wing airframes or ammonia storage
“It can. It absolutely can. The issue is volume, right? So those airplanes fly routes that are, you know, half the globe in range. And as a result, you need a lot of volume of hydrogen. And so in that case, you can move to a different airplane configuration alt…”
Insight
Eremenko: Electric propulsion lagged in aviation due to strict weight and reliability demands
“Electric propulsion was just coming into its own for aviation. And it took longer than for cars, because everything for airplanes has to be lighter and more reliable. But batteries were becoming good enough, and motors were becoming lightweight enough, where y…”
Assertion Supported
Eremenko: Aviation traffic volumes double roughly every 15 years
“Aviation traffic volumes double about every 15 years.”
Assertion Supported
Eremenko: Soviets flew the hydrogen-powered Tupolev 155 airliner in 1988
“The Soviets actually flew an airliner called the Tupolev one 55 on hydrogen and in 1988.”
Disclosure
Universal Hydrogen has raised just under $100M in capital
“That's about right. Yeah, just south of a hundred.”
Assertion Supported
Eremenko: Most aviation emissions come from narrow-body A320 and 737 fleets
“Most aviation emissions come from what's called single aisle or narrow body. And this is the A-three-twenty and the Boeing seven 37 family of aircraft. I was actually surprised, right? Because these are not the biggest airplanes and they're not the longest fly…”
Disclosure
Universal Hydrogen is backed by Fortescue Future Industries and Plug Power
“Two of the leading green hydrogen producers in the world are investors in our company, Fortescue Future Industries out of Australia and Plug Power out of New York.”
Disclosure
Eremenko: Airbus is an investor in Universal Hydrogen
“And I'm pleased to say that Airbus is an investor in universal hydrogen.”
Disclosure
Eremenko: GE is an investor in Universal Hydrogen
“Similarly, GE is an investor in us.”
Paul Eremenko