The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone Carlos Araque (6)Gene Berdachevsky (4)Blake Scholl (4)Steve Fambro (3)Paul Eremenko (3)Kim Vaccarella (3)Troy Carter (2)Tai Sade (2)Shara Ticku (2)Ramses Alcaide (2)Kyle Clark (2)John Zimmer (2)
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Next up (30)
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
Berdichevsky: First consumer cars with Sila technology expected in 2026
“And right now we're planning to be complete with the Current phase of the factory, what we call phase one at the end of this year, and we'll spend the first half of next year bringing that online very carefully to make very high quality product, and we'll begi…”
175 days left 2027-03-07
Berdichevsky: Sila will achieve a 40 percent energy density improvement over graphite
“And so that's where the technology is today, and then over the next few years, we'll get that to a 30% improvement. Eventually, we think we can get that to a 40% improvement over state-of-the-art graphite chemistries.”
474 days left 2027-12-31
669 days left 2028-07-13
Cliffton: Zipline will serve hundreds of millions of homes within five years
“And so I think that, you know, the question of how long is it going to take to expand from the, You know, thousands of homes that are served today to the hundreds of millions of homes that we ultimately need to serve. I think that that process will probably ta…”
795 days left 2028-11-16
1001 days left 2029-06-10
1076 days left 2029-08-24
Electric cargo planes will bypass standard airports within four to six years
“In the near future, the next few years, they'll go to the airport only because of regulatory challenges of putting off airport landing sites. But in the next four to six years, what'll happen is these aircraft will actually go to the distribution center, which…”
1205 days left 2029-12-31
1205 days left 2029-12-31
1205 days left 2029-12-31
Wurzbacher: Direct air capture will reach million-ton scale by 2030
“This industry is set up to scaling up to the million tons per year scale in the next couple of Years towards the end of this decade. So that's what will happen. We are doing that like a handful of other companies are working towards that.”
1206 days left 2030-01-01
1570 days left 2030-12-31
1570 days left 2030-12-31
1647 days left 2031-03-18
Baird predicts women's soccer will reach media parity within 10 years
“I do, and I know that's kind of a bold, brave statement to say when we're only four percent of the coverage today, and we're certainly not anywhere near the massive audience or revenues that some of our men's leagues have, but I think we and other women's spor…”
2229 days left 2032-10-20
Eremenko: Commercial hydrogen flights will operate globally before 2032
“Long before a decade from now, guy, you will be able to fly on hydrogen with a major regional airline, both in the U S or in Europe or in other parts of the world. For a ticket price that will be equivalent or lower, with the comfort knowing that the airplane …”
2502 days left 2033-07-20
2572 days left 2033-09-28
2614 days left 2033-11-09
2628 days left 2033-11-23
4027 days left 2037-09-22
4460 days left 2038-11-29
6123 days left 2043-06-19
6385 days left 2044-03-07
7669 days left 2047-09-12
Scaringe: Gas cars will be rare antiques within 25 years
“So call it the next 15 to 20 years, we'll see the fleet of vehicles in the world
Essentially shift almost entirely towards electric, but you know, within, I'd say, 25 years, it would be fairly rare to see a gasoline powered car on the road.
It would be like se…”
7994 days left 2048-08-02
8875 days left 2050-12-31
8875 days left 2050-12-31
9772 days left 2053-06-15
The Palm Oil Market Will Continue to Grow Over the Next 30 Years
“It's efficient, it's productive, so we can make a lot of it, but the reason that it has grown so explosively and will continue to grow over the next 30 years really comes down to the performance of palm oil as compared to other vegetable oils.”
Closed calls (43) the full record →
Vogt: Within 50 years, human driving will be seen as reckless
“The first is, is that I have very little doubt that self-driving cars will be Many, many, many, many times safer than human drivers to the point where it starts to look a little reckless to let humans drive cars in places where there might be pedestrians and c…”
Universal Hydrogen expects to retrofit half the target fleet by early 2030s
“We would expect to be able to get through at least half that fleet by the early 20 thirties.”
Guy Raz predicts AI podcasts will be profitable within five years
“In, in, within five years, AI generated podcasts will be, they already are pretty good. They will be so good that people will make money out for them, and my value will probably be going, doing things live.”
Quaise will start field drilling in 2024, repower plant by 2028
“So, twenty-twenty-four is what we say we're going to do, and after that, you start the journey towards repairing a power plant, and that takes us the better part of the rest of the decade. So, twenty-twenty-seven, 28 is when we intend to repair the first power…”
Blumenthal: AI ocular imaging will eventually diagnose primary health conditions
“And then we can use AIs to make diagnoses eventually and, you know, help better triage. Customers, not just within sort of eye care, but for primary health care and beyond.”
Khan: Immersive AI 'holodeck' simulations are 3 to 5 years away
“You know, there's a world now where you can talk to historical characters, and we're probably three to five years away where you could share a room with Benjamin Franklin or Julius Caesar or Cleopatra and immerse yourself. It'll, it'll be literally the holodec…”
Scholl: Boom will produce first Overture by 2026, test in 2027
“We're breaking ground on the plant to build it, and we will be in production by the end of 24. We'll have the first airplane in 26, and we'll start flight testing it in 27.”
Altman: AI is automating creative jobs before blue-collar labor
“You know, the strong consensus Five, 10 years ago, was that first of all the AI was going to come for the blue-collar jobs. Second of all would be the less sophisticated white-collar jobs. Third of all would be the very high cognitive load white-collar jobs li…”
Home Defense Is Becoming the Primary Driver of Firearm Purchases
“People are going to continue to buy firearms for home defense, right? And that is something that I is only increasing rapidly year over year. In fact, it is rapidly becoming the primary reason why people buy firearms.”
Walker: Sweet Paws by Five Dot Post will launch in every Petco
“We won three golden tickets at Walmart's open call, and in a few weeks, we're gonna be launched at every Petco nationwide, so.”
Ku predicts ghost kitchens will capture larger restaurant industry market share
“I think ghost kitchens were already part of the industry before this happened, and I think will be a bigger part of the industry.”
BETA plans to operate commercially in the United States by 2025
“And yes, by 20, 25, they're doing commercial operations here in the U S and then we just basically build them as fast as we can.”
Eremenko: Universal Hydrogen will fly first retrofit ATR by 2025
“Yes, we are. The long lead item for that is FAA certification, and we have been quite conscientious about bringing the FAA on the journey with us, right? Making sure that we don't just design it and throw it over the wall and say, please certify this, right?”
Simon Cowell predicts his new boyband will launch by late 2025.
“I think round about maybe the end of the year, I'm thinking.”
Hedrick: Tecovas Will Exceed $300 Million in Net Sales in 2025
“We'll, we'll definitely exceed three hundred million in net sales this year.”
Ben-Shitrit: Redefine Meat will reach profitability in two years
“So it's not 10 years, it's two years from now.”
Neurable will launch a silent, thought-controlled device interface by 2025
“So, you know, it's not like a vision video of a hundred years from now. At least V-one is going to be available within the next two years.”
C16's Palmless Oil Will Enter Food Products Within Two Years
“By the end of this year, we'll be in a handful of other personal care products, so think skin care and body care products, and other brands featuring Palmless as the sort of innovator, and within two years or so, we will be able to be in food products.”
Hyman: Retail will not return to majority offline purchases
“I don't think that we're going back into a world where the majority of what we buy is done offline.”
Brown: State bans on plant-based meat labeling will fail constitutional tests
“The smart money is that they're not going to pass a constitutional test.”
Meeker Projects Bark Will Achieve Net Profitability This Fiscal Year
“This year, we should make four or five million dollars. And up from there.”
Aurora expects fully driverless freight operations by late 2024 starting in Texas
“And so, yes, our expectation is by the end of next year, there will be no human. Yeah. And, you know, the way we're going to launch this is initially it'll be on one lane, Which is what you call kind of a trucking route, and that'll be between Dallas and Houst…”