Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Electric planes will outnumber gas-powered planes in the air by 2030
“By 2030, you'll see more electric airplanes in the air than gas powered airplanes.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
BETA plans to operate commercially in the United States by 2025
“And yes, by 20, 25, they're doing commercial operations here in the U S and then we just basically build them as fast as we can.”
Assertion Supported
Electric flights cost one-sixth to one-half as much as gas-powered planes
“A six to half the cost of flying gas-powered airplanes, and you're doing it sustainably.”
Disclosure
Clark promised Rothblatt a cross-country electric aircraft flight in 10 months
“And I told her that in 10 months we would create this electric aircraft and fly it across the country.”
Disclosure
Clark set aside 70% of BETA's equity for employees on day one
“So day one, I took 70% of the business and usually people take eight or 10 or seven or five percent of the business and say, that's going to be the employee pool. I took 70% of the business and I said, this is what I'm going to use to attract people to be real…”
Assertion Partly supported
Rothblatt pulled $48 million from BETA's competitors to fund Clark instead
“Yeah, forty eight million dollars she had out in contracts elsewhere. And she brought those back in because they were behind schedule, not keeping promises. And she redirected that at us and said, go build a commercial version that I can move organs with.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Point-to-point mesh networks will soon replace hub-and-spoke express air cargo
“So the hub and spoke network of yesterday will be replaced by a mesh network of the future where We have already saturated, as you pointed out, Memphis and Louisville. You can't put any more jets in there every night.”
Insight
An electric airplane experiences its worst performance on its very first day
“It's an entire new paradigm in aviation, because when you buy an airplane, it's worst performance will be on its first day. And every year when you put new batteries into that, you get better performance.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Physics initially capped electric aircraft range at 250 nautical miles
“All of those things together said the theoretical maximum of an electric airplane was to fly about 250 nautical miles within the context of flying at a hundred knots and carrying 600 pounds and having less than a 50 foot wingspan.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2029
Electric cargo planes will bypass standard airports within four to six years
“In the near future, the next few years, they'll go to the airport only because of regulatory challenges of putting off airport landing sites. But in the next four to six years, what'll happen is these aircraft will actually go to the distribution center, which…”
Disclosure
BETA received UAE regulatory approval for commercial, for-hire flights
“We just got regulatory approval to do this over in the Middle East for hire, for commercial, making money... The first regulatory letter we have is from the UAE between Abu Dhabi and Dubai.”
Disclosure
BETA Technologies has a 600-unit aircraft order backlog
“I mean, we have a 600 unit backlog right now, right?”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Aviation will become transportation's top carbon emitter by 2035 without intervention
“So, so with that as a foundation and the fact that new technology isn't being adopted by 2035, if we don't do anything about aviation, it will be the biggest producer of carbon emissions and transportation.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Developing a new aircraft costs hundreds of millions of dollars
“No, not independently. And I was aware of that, you know, this is hundreds of millions of dollars, even, you know, optimistically.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rothblatt set a 10-point organ-transport spec regardless of aircraft form
“She had written this 10 point spec of what she thought was realistic. And aspirational at the same time to move organs. And actually, she didn't care what it looked like, whether it was a helicopter, a drone, a fixed wing plane, a balloon, as long as it met th…”
Assertion Supported
Rothblatt funded BETA entirely via customer advances rather than taking equity
“Yeah, she, and interestingly enough, it wasn't actually in seed capital. She Proposed to be a customer. So she did not take an equity position in the company. She just said I believe in what you're doing. Let me fund this as a customer.”
Assertion Supported
BETA built and flew a 4,000-pound prototype in just 10 months
“We designed built and flew a 4000 pound version of this with me in it after 10 months and we kept our promise.”
Assertion Contradicted
BETA completed a clean-sheet aircraft design and test flight within 18 months
“It took us from August of 2018 and our first round the pattern flight was January first, 20 20. So it took us under 18 months with a fresh, you know, clean sheet design where we had to build the molds and the structure, design a flight controller, write the co…”
Assertion Supported
BETA retained non-medical commercial rights in Rothblatt's $46 million development deal
“What we agreed to was that even though she was funding to, like you said before, this forty six million dollar contract to develop the aircraft. She knew that that wasn't enough to develop an aircraft. So she took a license to be able to use this in organ and …”
Disclosure
BETA generates revenue flying its aircraft for the U.S. military
“We received what they call a military flight release to get paid to fly for the military. So we're doing that. We've been doing that for more than a year. We've had air force and army pilots flying our planes.”
Disclosure
Clark plans to eventually commercialize a hybrid motorcycle-plane concept
“It is, and it was really, it still is a very elegant design, and someday I'm going to go and bring it to the market.”
