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Chris Urmson

1 appearance on the record.

computed by AI from the episodes · how this works → · full disclaimer →

13statements → 8claims → 5claims resolved → 40%fully supported → 3.69/5average certainty → 2/5average debate potential → ≈4.5/5argument clarity, estimated → 3said about them ↓

2 supported 1 partly supported 2 contradicted 1 not yet assessed 2 not checkable as stated how the 8 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

3 predictions · 5 assertions · 3 insights · 2 disclosures · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 8 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 5 are resolved, 1 is not yet assessed, and 2 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Chris argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported
The 2005 DARPA Challenge united the first modern self-driving tech stack
“I think this was the first time where you saw the whole conglomeration of what is now a self-driving vehicle. We had LIDAR radar camera, we had machine learning, we had high definition maps all this stuff that is now making vehicles kind of come together in a …”
Chris Urmson Jul 20, 2023 ▶ 6:10 When trucks drive themselves with Chris Urmson of Aurora

Their most notable contradicted claim

Prediction Didn’t hold up
Aurora expects fully driverless freight operations by late 2024 starting in Texas
“And so, yes, our expectation is by the end of next year, there will be no human. Yeah. And, you know, the way we're going to launch this is initially it'll be on one lane, Which is what you call kind of a trucking route, and that'll be between Dallas and Houst…”
Chris Urmson Jul 20, 2023 ▶ 33:17 When trucks drive themselves with Chris Urmson of Aurora

Expressed certainty vs assessment result

none yet certainty 1
none yet certainty 2
50% certainty 3
50% certainty 4
none yet certainty 5

weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet

How they sound: not measured why? →

We measure speaking style by listening to the audio itself, and a fair number needs at least 2,000 words from one person on tape we have measured. There is too little of Chris Urmson on measured tape to publish a rate. This says nothing about how they speak.

Everything Chris Urmson said on How I Built This that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Urmson: Anyone driving a commercial truck today can still retire as one
“Now, my expectation is that if you're driving a truck today and you would like to retire as a truck driver, you're going to be able to. The shortage is that dire and the opportunity to kind of grow the freight market is, is real. And so I expect that, again, y…”
Chris Urmson Jul 20, 2023 ▶ 29:38 When trucks drive themselves with Chris Urmson of Aurora
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Aurora expects fully driverless freight operations by late 2024 starting in Texas
“And so, yes, our expectation is by the end of next year, there will be no human. Yeah. And, you know, the way we're going to launch this is initially it'll be on one lane, Which is what you call kind of a trucking route, and that'll be between Dallas and Houst…”
Chris Urmson Jul 20, 2023 ▶ 33:17 When trucks drive themselves with Chris Urmson of Aurora
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2033
Urmson predicts tens of percent of U.S. trucking becomes autonomous by 2033
“I think that's probably high for 10 years from now, but it's gonna be tens of percent is my expectation in, in a decade.”
Chris Urmson Jul 20, 2023 ▶ 34:34 When trucks drive themselves with Chris Urmson of Aurora
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Aurora's proprietary First Light LiDAR measures vehicle velocity instantly
“One of the core technologies we have at the company is we call it First Light, which is the special LiDAR technology. So LiDAR is using light like radar, and it allows us to see farther than other people can and see how fast things are moving instantly.”
Chris Urmson Jul 20, 2023 ▶ 18:25 When trucks drive themselves with Chris Urmson of Aurora
Insight
Academic robotics values one-off video demos over repeatable operational reliability
“Unlike most academic work where, you know, the idea is to kind of have the concept and you get the robot to do the thing once and you shoot the video and then it doesn't matter if it ever does it again or if it ever did it before, you've kind of made the point…”
Chris Urmson Jul 20, 2023 ▶ 5:40 When trucks drive themselves with Chris Urmson of Aurora
Assertion Supported
The 2005 DARPA Challenge united the first modern self-driving tech stack
“I think this was the first time where you saw the whole conglomeration of what is now a self-driving vehicle. We had LIDAR radar camera, we had machine learning, we had high definition maps all this stuff that is now making vehicles kind of come together in a …”
Chris Urmson Jul 20, 2023 ▶ 6:10 When trucks drive themselves with Chris Urmson of Aurora
Assertion Contradicted
U.S. military lost more personnel on Iraq supply lines than front lines
“We lost more people on the supply line than we did on the front line in, in Iraq.”
Chris Urmson Jul 20, 2023 ▶ 8:30 When trucks drive themselves with Chris Urmson of Aurora
Assertion Partly supported
Long-haul truck drivers are 10x more likely to die at work
“Long haul truck drivers, they're 10 times more likely to die at work than an average American”
Chris Urmson Jul 20, 2023 ▶ 17:53 When trucks drive themselves with Chris Urmson of Aurora
Disclosure
Aurora partners with legacy automakers instead of manufacturing its own vehicles
“The thing we can do best in world is build that driving capability, and there's companies out there that have been at it for a hundred years that build vehicles, and they've got a whole lot of battle scars learning how to do that well. Let's work with them rat…”
Chris Urmson Jul 20, 2023 ▶ 20:52 When trucks drive themselves with Chris Urmson of Aurora
Insight
Media attention on autonomous vehicle crashes rapidly diminishes as incidents recur
“So I remember back when I was at Google, you know, the first time we had a crash, it made national news. The second time we had a crash, it made national news, the third time it made local news, and, you know, the fourth time people stopped reporting on it, ri…”
Chris Urmson Jul 20, 2023 ▶ 37:11 When trucks drive themselves with Chris Urmson of Aurora
Disclosure
Aurora is initially focusing its autonomous vehicle technology on trucking
“And so for us, we're focused initially on trucking. We see that as a gigantic, exciting market”
Chris Urmson Jul 20, 2023 ▶ 17:50 When trucks drive themselves with Chris Urmson of Aurora
Insight
Autonomous trucks at highway speeds require over 400 meters of sensor range
“If you're driving a truck down the freeway at 65 miles an hour, you have to be looking out 404 hundred plus meters to see what's happening because there's so much momentum and inertia with that, that thing.”
Chris Urmson Jul 20, 2023 ▶ 19:48 When trucks drive themselves with Chris Urmson of Aurora
Assertion Supported
Aurora already hauls commercial freight using autonomous tractors with safety drivers
“So today we haul goods for a number of our partners. And so there's an Aurora tractor with a FedEx trailer or a Hirschback trailer or a Warner or Schneider trailer. And, you know, we do this with a person in the cab monitoring the driver, but we're being paid …”
Chris Urmson Jul 20, 2023 ▶ 32:57 When trucks drive themselves with Chris Urmson of Aurora

The other half of the tape: Chris Urmson's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 3 times in 1 episode on How I Built This. every mention, with the transcript →

Who brings them up most Guy Raz 3

Every mention by year

tap a year for its mentions
0021312023episodesmentions
0112023episodes it came up in
001.50.5312023episodesmentions per episode
2023 3 mentions in 1 episode

Appearances (1)

EpisodeDateSpeaking time
When trucks drive themselves with Chris Urmson of Aurora Jul 20, 2023 24m
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