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Venture capital, startups and investing, on tape.

Every prediction, opinion and bold claim from Latent Space: extracted from the transcript, verified against the tape, checked against cited public sources, playable at the exact moment it was said.

5,957 statements on the ledger →
1,046assessments with sources → 283episodes (so far) →

1,824 insights1,786 assertions877 disclosures790 opinions659 predictions21 what-ifs

predictions → 34 held up 14 didn’t hold up 6 partly held up
assertions → 817 supported 79 contradicted 96 partly supported
Star Treatment Does prominence change the questions? Every guest, plotted. prominence vs. host pushback Supercuts Didn’t hold up · Held up · Said with certainty exact-quote reels The Argument Index Debate potential by speaker, and the companies with the most bearish calls. debate potential, ranked The Numbers Museum Every figure ever claimed, checked where possible. 828 figures Entities Every company, fund and idea the show has opinions about, sources attached. 9,544 on the record The Calls Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. 23 open The Pulse What the Valley talks about, year by year, since 2023. who said it first Straight Answers Who answers the question asked, measured. Every moment timestamped and playable. 31 questions not answered directly The Wisdom Wall The lessons worth keeping. No fortune cookies. 1,824 insights The Graph Four years of people, companies and ideas as one map. explore connections Changed Positions Same person, opposite position. Both tapes, side by side. 0 on record Speaking Style Measured from raw, unedited recordings only. 0 speakers scored

Recently on the ledger full ledger →

Assertion Not checkable as stated
Yegge: OpenAI sees a 10x productivity gap between AI adopters and non-adopters
“Anecdotally, they're sharing that performance, the performance differences like 10 X By any way that you measure it. So lines of code, commits, business impact, whatever. And it's so stark and pronounced that the people who aren't adopting it are now 10 times …”
Steve Yegge Dec 26, 2025 ▶ 3:02 Steve Yegge's Vibe Coding Manifesto: Why Claude Code Isn't It & What Comes After the IDE
Opinion
Yegge: Engineers still using an IDE by January 1st are bad engineers
“If you're still using an IDE to develop code by January first. You're a bad engineer.”
Steve Yegge Dec 26, 2025 ▶ 3:36 Steve Yegge's Vibe Coding Manifesto: Why Claude Code Isn't It & What Comes After the IDE
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Abraham: CloudChef robot outperforms expert chefs on 40-50% of commercial cuisines
“Our robot is able to do line cooking for about 40 to 50% of the world's commercially valuable cuisine to a point that if we put our robot against an expert chef in that cuisine, our robot is able to consistently make the food better than even the chef whose so…”
Nikhil Abraham May 31, 2025 ▶ 4:27 [AIEWF Preview] CloudChef: Your Robot Chef - Michellin-Star food at $12/hr (w/ Kitchen tour!)
Opinion
Crivello: WordPress is a commercial failure despite powering 60% of the web
“WordPress is a commercial failure. They run 60% of the internet, and they're, like, a fraction of the size of even Substack, right?”
Florent Crivello Nov 15, 2024 ▶ 49:58 Agents @ Work: Lindy.ai (with live demo!)
Opinion
Crivello: Tech workers outside SF lack judgment or ambition
“I think at this point, if you are in tech, especially in AI, but if you're in tech and you're not in San Francisco, you either lack judgment or you lack ambition. It's one of the two.”
Florent Crivello Nov 15, 2024 ▶ 53:34 Agents @ Work: Lindy.ai (with live demo!)
Opinion
Wikimedia has become an apparatus producing political statements
“Wikipedia became such an important brand, and people are willing to pay for it, that it created enormous, ah, apparatus of functionaries that were, ah, then mostly producing political statements, and had a political mission.”
Joscha Bach Apr 27, 2024 ▶ 1:53:36 This World Does Not Exist — Joscha Bach, Karan Malhotra, Rob Haisfield (WorldSim, WebSim, Liquid AI)

How the calls resolved the full record →

Assertion Supported
Carlini published a paper proving C's printf function is Turing-complete
“A while ago as part of a research paper, I was able to show that in C, if you call into print def. It's Turing complete, like printf, you know, like which, like, you know, you can print numbers or whatever, right?”
Nicholas Carlini Aug 28, 2024 ▶ 3:28 Personal benchmarks vs HumanEval - with Nicholas Carlini of DeepMind
Assertion Contradicted
All modern AI models requiring multi-GPU parallelization are Mixture-of-Experts
“Effectively, all models today are MOE models that are, you know, at least all models large enough that you would care to parallelize them across multiple GPUs.”
Philip Kiely Aug 3, 2026 ▶ 52:42 Next 100x in AI: Inference, Networking, & Self-Optimizing Models — Philip Kiely & Ali Taha, Baseten
Assertion Supported
Bubna: Speculative decoding has zero impact on model output quality
“So there's no drop in quality performance, because you're always, you're never accepting a token that's a big model.”
Akshat Bubna Jul 8, 2026 ▶ 19:14 The Future of AI Infra: from Kubernetes to Agent Sandboxes — Akshat Bubna, Modal CTO
Assertion Contradicted
Neural operators are the only AI architecture that works for climate emulation
“This is where the Allen AI Institute has now built climate models based on our neural operator architecture. And that's the only one that works As an AI emulator, right? None of the other architectures work for climate because climate requires us to assume the…”
Anima Anandkumar Aug 26, 2026 ▶ 37:44 🔬 Why Transformers Hit a Wall the Moment Physics Shows Up — Anima Anandkumar, Caltech

Open predictions the full timeline →

10days Bachman: Big Foundation Models Will Train on Power Retention Within a Year Diego Bachman · prediction date: 2026-09-23 83days Patel: OpenAI and Microsoft partnership will likely collapse within years Dylan Patel · prediction date: 2026-12-05 106days Regulated MCP clients may require formal certification and signatures within a year David Soria Parra · prediction date: 2026-12-28 109days D'Amico: Impulse will ship globally with major appliance OEMs this year Sam D'Amico · prediction date: 2026-12-31

Track records all people →

Ordered by full support rate, then by supported count. Minimum three resolved. Partly supported claims count as resolved but not as fully supported, same as everywhere on the ledger.

PersonEpsStatementsSupportedPartly supportedContradictedFull support rate
Michelle Pokrass 3 58 13 0 0 100%
Alex Rives 1 22 11 0 0 100%
Jesse Hu 1 21 10 0 0 100%
Nicholas Carlini 1 31 8 0 0 100%
Joseph Krause 1 36 7 0 0 100%
David Soria Parra 1 33 7 0 0 100%
Akshay Agrawal 1 9 7 0 0 100%
Kyle Kranen 1 13 6 0 0 100%

From the Wisdom Wall all quotes →

“On the other hand, if you think about using transformer architectures that have worked so well for language, that just wouldn't be able to support a five trillion context length. No matter all the…”

“And the difference there is compared to language where self-improvement needs something like human feedback or other reward signals that are very sparse. They just tell you yes or no, thumbs up or…”

“if we were to use transformers and we require a very high resolution, it would become untenable because of the quadratic complexity and all to all connections. On the other hand, if you did that with…”
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