The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 659 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 59 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Yegge: Top engineers avoiding AI will operate like interns within a year
“Look, I have friends Who are much better engineers than I am, ok, I mean, world class, maybe some of the best in the whole world, ok, have built technologies that you've heard of, and they're not using AI yet, except the occasional, I'll ask Cursor a chat ques…”
Slack predicts CLI coding agents could be dead within two months
“And that's the kind of thing that means that this transition, I think, is going to go a lot faster than people think. Because if security and devs both benefit from it, then, you know, I don't know, in two months, we could be seeing CLI coding agents as basica…”
Swyx predicts coding SaaS will outlive all other SaaS
“Coding SAS will be the last SAS in the world because all the other SAS will just be buildable via coding SAS.”
Slack predicts traditional CI's days are numbered due to AI
“Every time someone has said, oh, I don't trust the model to do X or Y. That doesn't last for that long. So it just feels like the days of CI as we know it are numbered”
Lie: Groq will be forced to focus on significantly smaller models
“I think what's, what's going to end up happening is they're going to end up focusing on significantly smaller models. You know, if you have that limitation in your architecture, then I think that's what ends up happening.”
Hong: Informal math systems will not achieve math AGI
“I'm going to say on the record, we do not believe that an informal math system is going to be the math AGI solution.”
Burazin: SaaS revenue bumps from reselling LLM tokens will drop back down
“And I think that there will be a cold shower when people understand, like, no one's actually going to use and pay for these agents and tokens, and that wasn't actually real acceleration, but it'll drop back down.”
Swix: Pull requests and code reviews are dying, replaced by prompt requests
“The pull request is dying. Yeah. Right? It's going to be the prompt request. And then beyond that, code review is also kind of dying”
Azhnyuk: In 5-10 years, using weapons without AI will be immoral
“I think, you know, to your point, I think five to 10 years from now, it will be immoral to use weapons without AI. Because weapons without AI will be more likely to cause collateral damage or unwanted damage.”
Andreessen: Autonomous AI agents will inevitably hire humans for tasks
“The agent hiring the people, which of course is going to happen, right? It's obviously going to happen.”
Andreessen: Programming languages may not exist as a concept in 10 years
“Like I kind of think in 10 years, like I'm not sure, yeah, like I'm not sure there will even be a salient concept of a programming language in the way that we understand it today.”
Andreessen: AI will never transform existing US K-12 public classrooms
“How are we going to apply AI in education? The answer is we're not because it's a literal government monopoly. It is never going to change the end, and there is nothing to do. By the way, you can create an entirely new school system. Like that's the one thing …”
Sun: Neural rendering with world priors will replace rasterizers and DLSS
“We actually believe that this is going to be the next paradigm of rendering. So it's going to replace how rasterizers, it's going to replace DLSS today because it not only has these pixel prior that's learned from the world, such that you can literally play an…”
Rieseberg: Future of software will not be hyper-personalized individual apps
“I actually don't think that the future is going to be hyper personalized software down to the point where everyone is running their own version. Like, I actually think it's going to be quite hard for one of us to have our own internal chat tool.”
Dylan Patel: Political coup in Taiwan is more likely than full invasion
“What I think is most likely is that there is some sort of political coup or action. That destabilizes Taiwan in some way but doesn't actually, doesn't necessarily lead to an invasion, a full-scale invasion, and so sort of this is the best of the both worlds fo…”
Patel: Google will have zero free cash flow in 2027 due to AI CapEx
“There's no reason why Google will have any profit in 27 at all, right, in terms of cash flow. They will just spend every dollar they make On, on AI infrastructure.”
Patel: AI backlash will be the top issue in the next election
“And I think that's gonna be, like, the hottest button issue of, like, the next election, right? If not the midterms, right? And it seems obvious to me that, like, any party that wants to win should just become the anti-AI party.”
O'Laughlin: Google and Meta will see free cash flow drop to zero
“Google, I would argue, is going to free cash with zero. I think Meta will go to free cash with zero.”
Ravisankar: Developer workforce will expand significantly in the future
“I actually think you're going to see a proliferation of developers. I think you're going to see Way more developers in, in the future. I think the job role will change for sure. I think it's not going to stay the same, but I think you're going to see way more.”
Swix: OpenAI will issue a cryptocurrency token to fund compute
“There is still one more shoe to drop, which is the non sovereign wealth funding that open AI needs to get, which they've promised to drop by the end of this year.
And my money is on, they have to do a coin.
Like it's, I'm not a crypto guy at all, but like, y…”
Slack: AI tools like Cursor and Claude Code will peak and decline
“A lot of these other tools that are great, like cloud code and codex and cursor and so on that they've forgotten what made them great and what made them grow so fast, which is building the very best product. And they built it in a way that's too overfit on the…”
Slack: Top AI labs face a major customer stampede within two months
“I think we are one or two months away from a possible news cycle. That is the foundation model companies have spent billions of dollars in capex and hired like crazy. And now, you know, they're no longer the best in this realm and there's a huge stampede away …”
Ball: Complex sub-agent workflows will result in user hangovers
“A lot of the features what we see, you know, where people build like elaborate workflows, like I have my custom slash commands and they trigger custom Custom sub-agents and they in turn trigger custom MCP tool calls behind which again another model is doing in…”
Ermon: Diffusion models could become the dominant architecture over autoregressive models
“I'm pretty optimistic about a future where diffusion models
Can become the dominant solution. I've seen it happen before with GANs a few years ago, so I wouldn't be surprised if that's the case also here.”
Hou: 99% of AI editor rules file contents will be automatically inferred
“We strongly believe that having a rules file, you know, we do allow users to add a rules file, we strongly believe that a rules file is a crutch. You know, by the end of twenty-twenty-five, 99% of the things that you're gonna put in a rules file will be interp…”
Kamradt Predicts ARC-AGI-3 Benchmark Will Remain Unbeaten For 3 Years
“And then V three, our durability estimate for that is three years. And that's what we're aiming for is 36 months for V three.”
Bergum: Pinecone will not endure like MongoDB because it is too narrow
“So there's always like this convergence, but MongoDB kind of, it sticks, but I don't think that for Pinecoin that was originally leading that movement, it won't like stick in the same way.
It's too narrow.
It's too, too narrow.”
Conrad: Hyperscalers will probably lose significant money reselling Nvidia GPUs
“My intuition is that the hyperscalers are probably going to lose a lot of money, and they know they're going to lose a lot of money on reselling NVIDIA GPUs at least.”
Conrad: Decentralized compute networks will never beat co-located InfiniBand clusters
“I just don't really think this is gonna ever be more efficient than a fully interconnected cluster with Infiniband, or, you know, whatever sort of next spec might be. Like, I could be completely wrong, but Speedolite is really hard to beat. And regardless of w…”
Conrad: The AI VC bubble will pop and fail to return capital
“So what you've done by not having a future is you've inflated the venture capital market. And that is a bubble that's totally going to pop at some point. Like a lot of the companies are not going to work. And the valuations are not going to work. And what's go…”
Beauchamp: Timeline for AGI has certainly been pushed out
“I think the odds, the timeline for AGI has certainly been pushed out, right?”
Swyx: AI models hit a 2T parameter wall, won't reach 10T
“As far as everyone is concerned, Claude, you know, Opus 3.5 is not coming out. GPT 4.5 is not coming out. And Gemini two, like we don't have pro whatever we've hit that wall, whatever that wall is. Maybe I'll call it like the two trillion parameter wall. Like …”
Specialized open-source expert models will outperform one-size-fits-all closed-source models
“And that's our prediction is With specialization, there will be a lot of expert models, really, really good, and even better than, like, one size fits all open source closed source model.”
Goyal: Agent control flow and graph routing will move into models
“It feels very clear to me that this type of logic is going to be built into the model. Anytime there is control flow complexity or uncertainty complexity, I think the history of AI has been to push more and more into the model.”
Goyal: OpenAI o1 will make agentic frameworks obsolete
“And I think O-one is going to do that to agentic frameworks as well. Hey, I think To me, it seems very unlikely that the, you know, you and me sort of like sipping an espresso and thinking about how, like, different personified roles of people should interact …”
Shunyu Yao predicts training models on human computer trajectories achieves AGI
“The simplest way to achieve AGI is literally just record the re-actuatory of every human being and just put them together, you know, like what do you have thought about? What do you have done? Let's say on the computer, right? Imagine like solid experiment. Li…”
Chintala: George Hotz's TinyGrad requires major breakthroughs to match PyTorch
“There's no, like, I don't think, like, unless we have, like, great breakthroughs, like, George's vision is achievable, like, or, like, he should be thinking about a narrower problem, such as, I'm only gonna make this for, like, work for self-driving car con ne…”
Chintala: Apple's MLX will fail server-side due to lack of differentiation
“If they end up expanding onto the server side, and they'll probably build something like PyTorch as well, right? Like, eventually, that'll where it will land. And I think there, they will kind of fail on the, like, lack of differentiation. Like, it wouldn't be…”
Patel: OpenAI and Microsoft partnership will likely collapse within years
“Yeah, I expect in the next few years that the OpenAI and Microsoft probably falls apart too.”
Royzen: Fine-tuned open source models will beat proprietary in 2024
“So I think that even if a delta exists, in twenty-twenty-four, the delta between proprietary and open source won't be large enough that a startup like us, with a lot of data that we've collected, can take the data that we have, fine-tune an open source model, …”
Hotz: Tinybox will be 5x faster than H100 systems per dollar
“For 90% of most companies model training use cases, the tiny box will be five X faster for the same price.”
Hotz: Machines will replace all human labor in about 20 years
“I'm a believer that machines are gonna replace everything in about 20 years.”
Sean Lie: Next Cerebras Chip Will Run Frontier AI at 5,000 TPS
“And in particular, we designed it together with our next generation wafer chip that will be coming next year. And with that chip, We'll be pushing the performance even further. So we just saw a two X improvement this year with CS four. We're going to push it e…”
Transformers will never scale to high-resolution 4D physics simulations
“So forget ever having a transformer for anything of this scale. All of the world's compute will not be enough. And first of all, they all have to be co-located to be able to ever do this. So that's why we need other architectures.”
Park: Future simulations will cost as much to run as training models
“My hunch here is I do think in the next Some number of years, we will start creating simulations that will actually cost as much as training a foundation model.”
Krentsel: AI takeoff flywheel will emerge from agents iterating on harness code
“There's a moment like that happening now, and this is the moment that's going to be a flywheel, I feel like, because this takeoff moment will come from being iterating in the same layer that you are producing, I think.”
Patil: Biomolecular AI models will be as massive and impactful as LLMs
“And, you know, I think this class of models is going to be like just as big, just as impactful as LLMs, but it's almost like the compute market, like kind of doesn't realize that yet, both in the capacity sense, but also in like the software stack sense.”
NVIDIA's Vera Rubin GPU architecture effectively renders mega kernel research obsolete
“The GPU is, is It's designed in such a way that it basically kills megakernels. You don't need to use megakernels that much anymore. So it seems like that entire research field goes into, like, won't be continued, but yeah.”