Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dylan Patel: Political coup in Taiwan is more likely than full invasion
“What I think is most likely is that there is some sort of political coup or action. That destabilizes Taiwan in some way but doesn't actually, doesn't necessarily lead to an invasion, a full-scale invasion, and so sort of this is the best of the both worlds fo…”
Opinion
Patel: China Has World's Most Advanced Standalone Chip Supply Chain
“China, China has by far the most advanced supply chain in semiconductors if you just look at China itself, right?”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Patel: Anthropic added $2B in monthly revenue at positive margins
“Anthropic doesn't just add two billion dollars of revenue in one month. You know, with, without having, you know, huge demand and they're doing it at positive margins, right?”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Patel: Google will have zero free cash flow in 2027 due to AI CapEx
“There's no reason why Google will have any profit in 27 at all, right, in terms of cash flow. They will just spend every dollar they make On, on AI infrastructure.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Patel: AI backlash will be the top issue in the next election
“And I think that's gonna be, like, the hottest button issue of, like, the next election, right? If not the midterms, right? And it seems obvious to me that, like, any party that wants to win should just become the anti-AI party.”
Opinion
Patel: Frontier AI model training costs are effectively irrelevant
“In my opinion, I think that's a little bit spicy, but yeah, it's like training costs are irrelevant, right? Like GPT-IV, right? Like 20,000 A-one hundreds. That's like, I know it sounds like a lot of money.”
Opinion
Patel: Fine-tuning existing small models for cloud use is useless
“Unless, unless you're fine tuning for on device use, I think fine tuning current existing models, especially the smaller ones is a useless waste of time, right?”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Patel: OpenAI and Microsoft partnership will likely collapse within years
“Yeah, I expect in the next few years that the OpenAI and Microsoft probably falls apart too.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2031
Dylan Patel: TSMC will obey US export controls even under KMT
“Even if the KMT wins, it's not like TSMC starts disobeying American export restrictions because The way American export restrictions are upheld is that Taiwan utilizes American banking systems, American equipment industries, and so they'll still have to uphold…”
Assertion Supported
Patel: Claude Code's share of GitHub commits doubled to 4% in January
“Just in January, it went from four percent of or two percent of commits on GitHub to four percent of GitHub commits were done by Cloud Code, right?”
Prediction Held up
Patel: Google and Amazon will borrow debt to fund AI infrastructure
“Google and Amazon haven't taken on debt yet for AI infrastructure, but they will, right?”
Insight
Patel: Nvidia must vastly outperform rivals to overcome vertical integration
“Google, Amazon, they get to vertically integrate, integrate, and vertical integration always saves tons of money. So he has to be better than everyone. By, not just like a little bit, by a ton. To justify his margins. Otherwise, the vertical integration of his…”
Insight
Patel: Tech moats are shallower than ever due to massive capex
“I think moats are as shallow as they've ever been, right? Because how fast things are moving, the size of the numbers that are being thrown around now, right? It's hundreds of billions of dollars for each major hyperscaler. The size of the numbers are so large…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Patel: Google will buy tons of GPUs through 2027 due to TPU limits
“When we look in 26, Google would buy a lot more TPUs, but they can't ramp production fast enough, right? And so they have to buy tons of GPUs. And we go to 27, it applies again, right? Google simply cannot buy enough TPUs, and they have to buy tons of GPUs.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Patel: Semiconductor fab shortages will bottleneck AI through the end of the decade
“What's the bottleneck to building more fabs or to building more chips is more fabs, and people just have not built these fabs yet, right? And that's, I think, the big bottleneck now. And that's gonna persist through the end of the decade. Or until AI, you know…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Patel: AI software will have lower human R&D costs but higher COGS than SaaS
“An AI software looks like it's going to be very different in my opinion, right? Like the R&D cost is much lower in terms of people but the cost of goods sold in terms of actually operating the service, I think will be much higher, right?”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Patel: Google will have more compute than any company by far
“Google is gonna have more compute than any other company in the world, period, by, like, a large, large factor.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Patel: AI inference will deploy more GPUs than training by 2024
“LLM inference will be bigger than training, or multimodal, whatever, blah, blah, blah inference will be bigger than training, you know, probably next year, in fact at least in terms of GPUs deployed,”
Assertion Supported
Patel: Hugging Face libraries achieve only 15% MBU for inference
“Hugging Face's libraries are actually very inefficient, like incredibly inefficient for inference. You get like, 15% MBU on, on, on, on some configurations, like eight, eight, eight, eight, eight, eight, 100, and LLAMA-seventy-beat, you get like, 15%, which is…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Patel: Google targets 2027 to exit Broadcom partnership after 2025 attempt failed
“Their latest target to get away from Broadcom is twenty-twenty-seven, right? But like, you know, that's four years from now. Chip design cycle is four years. So they already tried to get away in twenty-twenty-five, and that failed.”
Insight
Patel: AI chip bottlenecks lie in interconnects and memory, not matrix multiplication
“Multiplying tensors is kind of, you know, anyone can, there's a lot of people who've made good matrix multiply units, right? But it's about, like, getting good utilization out of those, and interfacing with the memory, and interfacing with other chips really e…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Patel: Roughly 10 companies have compute to beat GPT-4 within six months
“There's, like, 10 companies that have enough compute in one single data center to be able to beat GPT-IV, right? Like, straight up, like, if not today, within the next six months, right?”
Prediction Partly held up
Patel: Intel will release a chip surpassing Nvidia H100 within a quarter
“Intel bought that company from him, and then shut it down, and bought this other AI company, and now that company is kind of, ah, you know, got new chips. They're gonna release a better chip than the H 100, ah, within the next quarter or so, right?”
Prediction Held up
Patel: AMD MI300 will beat Nvidia H100 on paper within a quarter
“AMD. They have a GPU. MI 300. That will be better than the H 100 in a quarter or so. Now, that says nothing about how hard it is to program it, but at least hardware-wise, on paper, it's better.”
Dylan Patel