The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 5,957 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 100 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Yegge: OpenAI sees a 10x productivity gap between AI adopters and non-adopters
“Anecdotally, they're sharing that performance, the performance differences like 10 X By any way that you measure it. So lines of code, commits, business impact, whatever. And it's so stark and pronounced that the people who aren't adopting it are now 10 times …”
Yegge: Engineers still using an IDE by January 1st are bad engineers
“If you're still using an IDE to develop code by January first. You're a bad engineer.”
Yegge: Top engineers avoiding AI will operate like interns within a year
“Look, I have friends Who are much better engineers than I am, ok, I mean, world class, maybe some of the best in the whole world, ok, have built technologies that you've heard of, and they're not using AI yet, except the occasional, I'll ask Cursor a chat ques…”
Abraham: CloudChef robot outperforms expert chefs on 40-50% of commercial cuisines
“Our robot is able to do line cooking for about 40 to 50% of the world's commercially valuable cuisine to a point that if we put our robot against an expert chef in that cuisine, our robot is able to consistently make the food better than even the chef whose so…”
Crivello: WordPress is a commercial failure despite powering 60% of the web
“WordPress is a commercial failure. They run 60% of the internet, and they're, like, a fraction of the size of even Substack, right?”
Crivello: Tech workers outside SF lack judgment or ambition
“I think at this point, if you are in tech, especially in AI, but if you're in tech and you're not in San Francisco, you either lack judgment or you lack ambition. It's one of the two.”
Wikimedia has become an apparatus producing political statements
“Wikipedia became such an important brand, and people are willing to pay for it, that it created enormous, ah, apparatus of functionaries that were, ah, then mostly producing
political statements, and had a political mission.”
Google would have crushed OpenAI by giving Noam Shazeer half its TPUs
“That muscle did not exist during my time at Google. And I think had they had it, what they would have done would be say, hey, Noam Shazir, you're a brilliant guy. You know how to scale these things up? Like, here's half of all of our TPUs. And then I think the…”
Hotz: GPT-4 is an 8-way mixture model with 220B parameters per head
“GPT-IV is two hundred twenty billion in each head, and then it's an eight-way mixture model.”
Hotz: Meta attracts researchers who want to publish while OpenAI keeps ideologues
“OpenAI can keep ideologues who, you know, believe ideological stuff, and Facebook can keep every researcher who's like, dude, I just want to build AI and publish it.”
Slack: Local software development is dead
“So, you know, local dev, in our opinion, is dead, and that's been a huge change to, you know, how we all build.”
Slack says Amp eliminated mandatory pre-merge code reviews since day one
“Mandatory code review before it gets to main. Yeah, it's dead. It's been dead ever since we started working on AMP.”
Slack predicts CLI coding agents could be dead within two months
“And that's the kind of thing that means that this transition, I think, is going to go a lot faster than people think. Because if security and devs both benefit from it, then, you know, I don't know, in two months, we could be seeing CLI coding agents as basica…”
Swyx predicts coding SaaS will outlive all other SaaS
“Coding SAS will be the last SAS in the world because all the other SAS will just be buildable via coding SAS.”
Slack predicts traditional CI's days are numbered due to AI
“Every time someone has said, oh, I don't trust the model to do X or Y. That doesn't last for that long. So it just feels like the days of CI as we know it are numbered”
Slack: AI agents eliminate the need to hire low-agency staff
“And compared to a few years ago, You do not have the need to go and hire people that you do not trust, that you do not trust to have high agency or the right skills, because you can use an agent to do those things.”
Slack says hiring early PMs or marketers is an outdated practice
“And I see some other companies that are around our size starting to go hire a PM or a marketer or something like that. And that just feels like the old way of building a software business. And ultimately that's gonna lead to something where 10% of the people a…”
OpenAI built a significantly better GPU than Nvidia with Jalapeno chip
“I think that, like, they, you know, they pushed a lot on the performance and the fact that they're significantly better than, you know, better performance than the GPU than NVIDIA. But what I see is that they've built a significantly better GPU. And that in it…”
Lie: Groq will be forced to focus on significantly smaller models
“I think what's, what's going to end up happening is they're going to end up focusing on significantly smaller models. You know, if you have that limitation in your architecture, then I think that's what ends up happening.”
Sean Lie: Etched is not building anything better than a traditional GPU
“I think my reaction when I see pictures like this is that it's very impressive graphics design. But I also don't see them building anything beyond just, or trying to build something better than just, you know, a traditional GPU, right? You know, they've made c…”
Sean Lie: 95% of High-Quality Open Models Come From Chinese Labs
“The open source model market is a hundred percent Chinese, right? . A hundred percent, but. Almost. Okay. 95%, right? Most of the big models, most of the big open models that are, you know, high quality are coming from the Chinese labs.”
AI ASIC startups are doomed as NVIDIA GPUs become domain-specialized
“How can you look at this trend and then still be bullish on companies that are coming up with Asics for AI.”
GLM-5.2 autonomously wrote and guided production GPU kernels for Baseten's inference engine
“Some of the GPU kernels that were on GLM-Five-two within our inference engine is written by GLM-Five-two. And the trace and the kernels were guided by GLM-Five-two as the driver.”
Kant: Solving knowledge work does not require 2-3 orders of magnitude scaling
“I'm no longer thinking that we need two or three orders of magnitude on the largest models to be able to You know, solve knowledge work the accounting, the legal, the code that we write.”
Kant: Anthropic's MCP and explicit tool calling abstractions are stupid
“I think MCP and tools are stupid.”
Kant: Restricting open-weight AI models at current capability levels will hurt innovation
“We are not at a level of capability right now. That we should start restricting, you know, open models in any way, shape or form. I think it will hurt innovation if we do so.”
Edunov: LLM architectures are boring and fundamentally unchanged since 2017
“And honestly, LLM architectures are relatively boring. I don't know, probably alienate half of your audience. But it's like, it's a transforming layer in the end, like paper was published in 2017, and you go to any LLM lab today, you will see very, very simila…”
Chen: OpenAI's three-year goal is models conducting end-to-end research
“When we look at our kind of three-year roadmap, right the end goal that we want to reach is one where You know, the models are just doing end-to-end research, and I think a part of that problem is just being able to have the model come up with good taste.”
Xin: Vector databases should never have been a separate category
“Vector database should have never been a separate category.”
Midha: The 'NeoCloud' concept is mostly marketing speak
“I think this whole idea of NeoCloud being somehow this new category is a lot of marketing speak. There are really good, reliable, trusted data center providers in America who've been around 20 plus years.”
Google's internal compute credit market caused it to miss GPT
“This is a thing that has been tried internally within Google, and it led to Google missing GPT.”
Google DeepMind's six-month internal embargo shelves commercially valuable research papers
“I mean, what's worse is the paper is actually not even being Published anymore because there's a six month embargo inside of DeepMind, right? Like we've heard about this where a paper comes out and then I think there's a six month embargo window where if anybo…”
Awais: Claude Code hides 50+ tool-call failures per session on DeepSeek
“In CloudCode you know, they hide a lot of the errors behind control O, right? So you don't even know that, you know, you have like 50 plus tool call failures plus per session. You're just sitting there and you're like, oh, why is DeepSeq so slow?”
Petersson: Anthropic's Claude models uniquely exhibit emergent deceptive and cartel behaviors
“So every single model from Anthropic since have been going in this direction. And I think one interesting thing is that like, OpenAI models don't. They, Quite plainly, they don't, they behave really well. And you know, you don't know if this is like, good, lik…”
Hong: Competitor's AI demo can be solved entirely by Lean's grind tactic
“We're talking about, for example, the grind tactic in Lean. It can currently handle a lot of mass proofs, like, at a very low level. And this is pretty shocking because I have seen, you know, actually another company working in the same space, like, you know, …”
Hong: Informal math systems will not achieve math AGI
“I'm going to say on the record, we do not believe that an informal math system is going to be the math AGI solution.”
Burazin: SaaS revenue bumps from reselling LLM tokens will drop back down
“And I think that there will be a cold shower when people understand, like, no one's actually going to use and pay for these agents and tokens, and that wasn't actually real acceleration, but it'll drop back down.”
Cooper: Developers writing code by hand instead of reviewing AI are wrong
“If you're writing code by hand, you are doing this wrong, right? Like, they're code, the tools are good enough at this point, like, that you move extremely, extremely quickly, and like, yes, there are issues and pain points and all these other things but, You …”
Swix: Pull requests and code reviews are dying, replaced by prompt requests
“The pull request is dying. Yeah. Right? It's going to be the prompt request. And then beyond that, code review is also kind of dying”
Azhnyuk: FPV Drones Cause 70% to 80% of Frontline Casualties
“Out of all the casualties on the frontline, between 70 and 80% are done by FPV drones.”
Azhnyuk: In 5-10 years, using weapons without AI will be immoral
“I think, you know, to your point, I think five to 10 years from now, it will be immoral to use weapons without AI. Because weapons without AI will be more likely to cause collateral damage or unwanted damage.”
Azhnyuk: Nuclear Weapons Are Now the Only Credible Deterrence
“Someone, someone someone could argue that if a country currently doesn't work on their own nuclear program, They're doing a disservice to their country and the government should be fired. Like, because it seems like from the recent world history that, that, th…”
GPT-5 Reproduced Lupsasca's Best Physics Paper in 30 Minutes
“Then when GPT-V came out. It was able to reproduce one of my best papers that took me a very long time to come up with, in like, 30 minutes.”
AI Resolved Theoretical Physics Problem That Puzzled Experts for a Year
“AI has become superhuman, at least on certain tasks. And that's what led to these recent papers which maybe we should talk about that resolve a problem that was puzzling physicists for experts in the field for over a year, and they weren't able to resolve it a…”
ChatGPT Solved Open Physics Problem Before Collaborator's Flight Landed
“We decided to start working on it using AI a little bit before Andy was scheduled to come, like the week before. And in fact, using ChatGPT, we solved the problem before he even got off the plane.”
Internal OpenAI Model Proved Gluon Amplitude Formula in 12 Hours
“We had this Internal model that could think for a very long time and was extra strong in physics. So we gave it the whole problem from scratch without actually giving it this. We just formulated the problem in a very sharp way and asked the model to solve, to …”