Assertion Supported AI assessment confidence: 85% certainty 4/5 debate potential 3/5

Azhnyuk: FPV Drones Cause 70% to 80% of Frontline Casualties

Yaroslav Azhnyuk · FPV Drones -The Next War Is Already Here — Yaroslav Azhnyuk, The Fourth Law & Noah Smith, Noahpinion · May 18, 2026 · at 25:18

Yaroslav Azhnyuk (founder of defense startup The Fourth Law) explains how FPV drones have overtaken traditional artillery as the primary cause of frontline casualties.

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“Out of all the casualties on the frontline, between 70 and 80% are done by FPV drones.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

More from Yaroslav Azhnyuk

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Azhnyuk: In 5-10 years, using weapons without AI will be immoral
“I think, you know, to your point, I think five to 10 years from now, it will be immoral to use weapons without AI. Because weapons without AI will be more likely to cause collateral damage or unwanted damage.”
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Yaroslav Azhnyuk May 18, 2026 ▶ 1:32:12 FPV Drones -The Next War Is Already Here — Yaroslav Azhnyuk, The Fourth Law & Noah Smith, Noahpinion
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Yaroslav Azhnyuk May 18, 2026 ▶ 13:44 FPV Drones -The Next War Is Already Here — Yaroslav Azhnyuk, The Fourth Law & Noah Smith, Noahpinion
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Yaroslav Azhnyuk May 18, 2026 ▶ 15:22 FPV Drones -The Next War Is Already Here — Yaroslav Azhnyuk, The Fourth Law & Noah Smith, Noahpinion
Disclosure
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Yaroslav Azhnyuk May 18, 2026 ▶ 18:32 FPV Drones -The Next War Is Already Here — Yaroslav Azhnyuk, The Fourth Law & Noah Smith, Noahpinion
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Yaroslav Azhnyuk May 18, 2026 ▶ 32:24 FPV Drones -The Next War Is Already Here — Yaroslav Azhnyuk, The Fourth Law & Noah Smith, Noahpinion
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