The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone Shawn Wang (7)Diego Bachman (5)Nathan Lambert (4)Dylan Patel (4)Doug O'Laughlin (3)Anjney Midha (3)Thomas Sohmers (2)Soumith Chintala (2)Samuel Colvin (2)Priscilla Chan (2)Pratyush Maini (2)Michelle Pokrass (2)
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Next up (23)
10 days left 2026-09-23
83 days left 2026-12-05
106 days left 2026-12-28
Regulated MCP clients may require formal certification and signatures within a year
“You might end up in a world really a year from now. There might be clients that have like certifications that they are in Amplik and get like a signature that they are like financial services, MCP clients, and they can prove it for the server. And only then th…”
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
O'Laughlin: AI Agents Will Write 25% to 50% of Public Code by Year-End
“I sandbagged the ever-living share of that. I just believe 25 is, Very, like, I, like, it's like a, the rate it's on is like, whatever, 50 or something like that, but I think, I feel, I wanted to give a 95 confidence interval. I think 25 is within the 95 confi…”
109 days left 2026-12-31
312 days left 2027-07-22
474 days left 2027-12-31
474 days left 2027-12-31
Patel: Google will buy tons of GPUs through 2027 due to TPU limits
“When we look in 26, Google would buy a lot more TPUs, but they can't ramp production fast enough, right? And so they have to buy tons of GPUs. And we go to 27, it applies again, right? Google simply cannot buy enough TPUs, and they have to buy tons of GPUs.”
474 days left 2027-12-31
474 days left 2027-12-31
Sean Lie: Next Cerebras Chip Will Run Frontier AI at 5,000 TPS
“And in particular, we designed it together with our next generation wafer chip that will be coming next year. And with that chip, We'll be pushing the performance even further. So we just saw a two X improvement this year with CS four. We're going to push it e…”
529 days left 2028-02-24
619 days left 2028-05-24
680 days left 2028-07-24
Formalizing Fermat's Last Theorem in Lean is doable in 2-3 years
“It's I think definitely possible. Yeah. Like he, so the professor is Kevin buzzard and he got like a grant and now he just like focused on writing the proof for Ling. Like he's hoping to finish that in like two or three years. And then basically like if Ling i…”
1205 days left 2029-12-31
1264 days left 2030-02-28
1298 days left 2030-04-03
Andreessen: AI hardware supply chain faces chronic shortages for next 3-4 years
“In the next three or four years, it's like somewhere between three or four years out, basically everything is selling out. So like the entire supply chain is, is, is, is sold out or selling out. And so there, there's no, like, we're just gonna have like chroni…”
1625 days left 2031-02-24
1635 days left 2031-03-06
Chintala: Home robotics is five to seven years away from commercialization
“Home robotics being, like, five to seven years away into commercialization. I think, like, It's not, like, next year or two years from now, but, like, five to seven years from now, I think, like, a lot more robotics companies might pop out.”
3341 days left 2035-11-06
Zuckerberg: Specialized virtual cell models will merge into a biological Omni model
“I would imagine you're taking these different types of virtual cell models and eventually merging them into the equivalent of like a biological Omni model, kind of like how on the language model side, you had people that did language and then, you know, people…”
7174 days left 2046-05-05
Interactive LLMs Will Replace Static Scientific Papers Within 20 Years
“If you ask me, would I be confident that in 20 years we'll have these sort of like static documents in which we publish our results as papers? I would think not. Like that doesn't seem like the best thing we could be doing. Maybe some kind of interactive paper…”
17341 days left 2074-03-06
Chintala: In 50 years, remote smell will accompany digital media
“50 years from now, it would be pretty obvious to, like, kids of the generation to just, like, you know, I guess I was saying, I was gonna say roll a reel on their phone, maybe phones will be, they're just like, you know, on their glasses, they're watching some…”
Closed calls (54) the full record →
Andreessen: AI will never transform existing US K-12 public classrooms
“How are we going to apply AI in education? The answer is we're not because it's a literal government monopoly. It is never going to change the end, and there is nothing to do. By the way, you can create an entirely new school system. Like that's the one thing …”
Andreessen: Autonomous AI agents will inevitably hire humans for tasks
“The agent hiring the people, which of course is going to happen, right? It's obviously going to happen.”
Nelle: Developers will spend thousands to tens of thousands monthly on agents
“I think as we think about these highly parallel kind of agents running off for a long time in their own VM system, We are already at that point where people will be spending thousands of dollars a month per, per human, and I think potentially tens of thousands…”
Nair: LLM agents will hit $1T before robotics hits $10B
“It feels like LLM agents are going to be like a trillion dollar market before robotics is maybe even like a ten billion dollar market.”
Brockman: Most AI compute will shift from training to inference
“We're going to move from a world where most of the compute is training the model as we've deployed these models more, you know, more of the compute goes to inferencing them and actually using them.”
Mohan: Automated PR generation will require specialized models trained on diffs
“A lot of things people are excited about right now are I write a comment and it generates a PR for me. And that's like really awesome in theory. I think that's like a really cool thing. And I'm sure at some point we will be able to get there. That will probabl…”
McCloy: ChatGPT Search Bans for Prompt Injection Are Coming
“I think it works until it stops working.
Right.
And I would say like, there's not a lot of stories of people getting banned for like Chatsby D search so far, but it's coming.”
Ameisen: Deceptive Backward Reasoning Exists in Base Pre-Trained Models
“I bet, I don't know how much I bet a hundred bucks. So somebody can like, they would get a hundred bucks from me if they prove that I'm wrong, that this behavior for a model that does a drink fine tuning, it also does it post pre-training.”
Swix: Overcast will basically never have searchable transcripts
“I should have a podcast that has transcripts that I can search. Very, very basic thing. Overcast will basically never have it.”
Ben-Smith: AI will enable natural language steering of recommendation algorithms
“I think what actually AI will enable is not that you bring your own algorithm, but you will be able to talk. You will be able to communicate with the algorithm.”
Klein: Authentication providers will offer dedicated login features for AI agents
“I think there'll be agent off in the future. I don't know if it's going to happen from an individual company, but actually authentication providers that have a You know, hidden login as agent feature, which will then you put in your email. You'll get a push no…”
Bach: Smaller, more powerful models will ensure unconstrained AI remains accessible
“Yes, but there will also be better jailbroken models or models that have never been jailed before, because we find out how to make smaller models that are more powerful.”
Multimodal models will completely supplant text-only large language models
“I actually think like it's really clear today. Multimodal models are the default foundation model, right? It's just going to supplant LLMs. Like why did you just train a giant multimodal model?”
Patel: Google and Amazon will borrow debt to fund AI infrastructure
“Google and Amazon haven't taken on debt yet for AI infrastructure, but they will, right?”
O'Laughlin: CXL will take off as operators pool old DDR4 memory
“This CXL technology that kind of never really took off is going to take off just because what they're going to do is they're going to take DDR four. They're going to take the oldest, every bit of spare memory they can find, and they're going to put them into r…”
Swyx: OpenAI will always release both general and Codex model variants
“I'm pretty, like, have pretty high confidence that basically OpenAI will always release a GPT-V and a GPT-V codex.”
Yegge: AI coding will fragment into many specialized, fine-tuned models
“And that, that fragmentation of models actually, we expected to continue and proliferate, right? Because we are fundamentally, we're a recommender engine right now. We're recommending code to the LLM. We're saying, may I interest you in this code right here so…”
Cheah: Standard Transformers Will Never Scale to Ten Million Tokens
“I think what was quick, I think it was rather quick after I concluded that transformer as it is will not scale to ten million tokens.”
Swyx: Windsurf will stick around as an active product post-acquisition
“I think Windsurf as a product is going to stick around, and people who really like Windsurf, I mean, I was a Windsurf user for a long time we are going to keep using it because it fills a need, and like, obviously, Cognition bought it for a reason.”
Lambert: Labs will surely use parallel-compute models to generate synthetic data
“Well, I bet people, I mean, they surely will use these for synthetic data. It's just like the marginal gain on synthetic data is always very high.”
Packer: ChatGPT will likely use sleep-time compute to learn offline
“Like if you activate sleep time compute on a chatbot like ChatGPT, it can like learn about you as you're not on ChatGPT.com. I think that's, you know, kind of what they're probably going to try to do. That's the direction they're going in.”
Conrad: Test-time inference will significantly expand inference compute demand
“The thing I do feel reasonably confident about saying is that the test time inference is probably going to quite significantly expand the amount of compute that was used for inference.”
Colvin: Pydantic AI will be first framework implementing OpenTelemetry GenAI attributes
“I suspect Pedantic AI will be the first agent framework that implements those semantic attributes properly, because again, we control Pedantic AI, and we can say this is important for observability, whereas most of the other agent frameworks are not maintained…”
Biggio: Real-time video/vision is likely the next Realtime API feature
“To use ChatGPT's voice mode as an example, like we've demoed the video, right? Like real-time image, right? So I'm not actually sure what timelines are, but I would expect, if I had to guess, that like that is probably the next thing that we're going to be mak…”