The Calls

“How are we going to apply AI in education? The answer is we're not because it's a literal government monopoly. It is never going to change the end, and there is nothing to do. By the way, you can create an entirely new school system. Like that's the one thing …”

“The agent hiring the people, which of course is going to happen, right? It's obviously going to happen.”

“I think as we think about these highly parallel kind of agents running off for a long time in their own VM system, We are already at that point where people will be spending thousands of dollars a month per, per human, and I think potentially tens of thousands…”

“It feels like LLM agents are going to be like a trillion dollar market before robotics is maybe even like a ten billion dollar market.”

“We're going to move from a world where most of the compute is training the model as we've deployed these models more, you know, more of the compute goes to inferencing them and actually using them.”

“A lot of things people are excited about right now are I write a comment and it generates a PR for me. And that's like really awesome in theory. I think that's like a really cool thing. And I'm sure at some point we will be able to get there. That will probabl…”

“I think it works until it stops working. Right. And I would say like, there's not a lot of stories of people getting banned for like Chatsby D search so far, but it's coming.”

“I bet, I don't know how much I bet a hundred bucks. So somebody can like, they would get a hundred bucks from me if they prove that I'm wrong, that this behavior for a model that does a drink fine tuning, it also does it post pre-training.”

“I should have a podcast that has transcripts that I can search. Very, very basic thing. Overcast will basically never have it.”

“I think what actually AI will enable is not that you bring your own algorithm, but you will be able to talk. You will be able to communicate with the algorithm.”

“I think there'll be agent off in the future. I don't know if it's going to happen from an individual company, but actually authentication providers that have a You know, hidden login as agent feature, which will then you put in your email. You'll get a push no…”

“Yes, but there will also be better jailbroken models or models that have never been jailed before, because we find out how to make smaller models that are more powerful.”

“I actually think like it's really clear today. Multimodal models are the default foundation model, right? It's just going to supplant LLMs. Like why did you just train a giant multimodal model?”

“Google and Amazon haven't taken on debt yet for AI infrastructure, but they will, right?”

“This CXL technology that kind of never really took off is going to take off just because what they're going to do is they're going to take DDR four. They're going to take the oldest, every bit of spare memory they can find, and they're going to put them into r…”

“I'm pretty, like, have pretty high confidence that basically OpenAI will always release a GPT-V and a GPT-V codex.”

“And that, that fragmentation of models actually, we expected to continue and proliferate, right? Because we are fundamentally, we're a recommender engine right now. We're recommending code to the LLM. We're saying, may I interest you in this code right here so…”

“I think what was quick, I think it was rather quick after I concluded that transformer as it is will not scale to ten million tokens.”

“I think Windsurf as a product is going to stick around, and people who really like Windsurf, I mean, I was a Windsurf user for a long time we are going to keep using it because it fills a need, and like, obviously, Cognition bought it for a reason.”

“Well, I bet people, I mean, they surely will use these for synthetic data. It's just like the marginal gain on synthetic data is always very high.”

“Like if you activate sleep time compute on a chatbot like ChatGPT, it can like learn about you as you're not on ChatGPT.com. I think that's, you know, kind of what they're probably going to try to do. That's the direction they're going in.”

“The thing I do feel reasonably confident about saying is that the test time inference is probably going to quite significantly expand the amount of compute that was used for inference.”

“I suspect Pedantic AI will be the first agent framework that implements those semantic attributes properly, because again, we control Pedantic AI, and we can say this is important for observability, whereas most of the other agent frameworks are not maintained…”

“To use ChatGPT's voice mode as an example, like we've demoed the video, right? Like real-time image, right? So I'm not actually sure what timelines are, but I would expect, if I had to guess, that like that is probably the next thing that we're going to be mak…”

“I guess by the end of this year is this is going to be a big hit. So the inflection point will be there and the videos generated by video agents can get to like production great quality. So it can be presented and it can be distributed in, in ads.”

“And I can continue just by sort of like saying that that's definitely going to be something I think is going to be something that we'll be capable of in 20, 26.”

“So I think if we solve Gaia, that's like 90% score. That means mostly we double productivity of every task done in front of a computer. And if you take the trend line of the scores so far this should be crossed in 2026 or something.”

“I don't think Google is going to deploy a model that I can run on my laptop to help me with code or help me with, you know, XYZ. They're always going to want to run it on the cloud for control.”

“The vision we have is, fast forward a couple of years, I think, like, most developers will essentially, like, have an automated, continuous, fine-tuned model. The more, like, you use the model, the more data you pass to the mobile provider, like, the model is …”

“Like right now, like if you look, if you want to train a Sota image model, I don't think it's going to cost more than a million dollars. It's extremely cheap. It's like a matter of data engineering effort, cleaning. It's, I think it's a function of data set.”

“From what I've heard, they, they're seven months behind, and that, that gap is gradually narrowing. The frontier models, which means OSS models will be as good as Gemini three next summer.”

“I believe that getting to a frontier model should cost a million dollars or less for most organizations, at least in a specialized domain, right? And when you think about what enterprises need, that's generally what they need. They don't need a model that can …”

“All indications are, even though they, you know, more than doubled the theoretical memory bandwidth going from Hopper to Blackwell, the actual percentage of theoretical that you can achieve is, again, going to be less than the previous generation”

“My guess is it's not going to be beat for the next 12 months.”

“Basically, state of the art on SweetBench, I think we will, again, I don't want to be quoted here, we can maybe edit this later, but like, we'll probably be number one or close to it on TBench also, which is the terminal benchmark, which really we should be th…”

“There is still one more shoe to drop, which is the non sovereign wealth funding that open AI needs to get, which they've promised to drop by the end of this year. And my money is on, they have to do a coin. Like it's, I'm not a crypto guy at all, but like, y…”

“It's not, you cannot actually do it today, but it feels like a tractable problem, you know, that probably by the end of the year we should be able to do it.”

“My general prediction is that like by the winter we will be back towards shortage, but then also this very much depends on The rollout of future chips.”

“I think that Oh, three is not where the technology will be in six months.”

“Even getting to the, like, Ten million tokens of very fast and accurate context, which I expect to measure in, like, months, something like that.”

“Like, I'm pretty sure soon we'll see like an on-device SAM-II or, you know, maybe even running in the browser or something. So I think that could definitely unlock some of these edge use cases.”

“Maybe in a year or two, we'll, we'll have compilers that are able to do a lot of these optimizations for you, and you don't have to, for example, spend a couple months writing CUDA to get this stuff to work.”

“One thing to warn about pricing is that you're going to see a lot of providers jumping in, and everyone's just trying to get the piece of the pie. So, so, so like with some of the previous model launches, you see some people coming in at lower and lower price,…”

“I think we have a little ways before we can beat the game in 16 days. I do not have a lot of faith that the current stream is gonna, gonna be standing in Victory Road in 13 days.”

“LLM inference will be bigger than training, or multimodal, whatever, blah, blah, blah inference will be bigger than training, you know, probably next year, in fact at least in terms of GPUs deployed,”

“There is four to five million GPUs that will be sold this year. NVIDIA and others.”

“That is by the end of this year, and 600 K H-One hundred equivalents. With 250 K H-one hundreds and including all of the other GPU or accelerator stuff, it would be 600 and something K aggregate capacity.”

“I think in twenty-twenty-four at some point people will start doing things like constitutional AI for preferences.”

“NVIDIA is going to sell well over three million, you know, total GPUs next year. You know, over a million H 100 this year alone, right?”

“Nvidia's releasing a new chip, you know, in, you know, they're gonna announce it in March, and they're gonna release it, you know, and ship it, you know, Q-two, Q-three next year anyways, right? And that chip will probably be three or four times as good. Right…”

“The second thing is, frankly, I don't think it's up to you, whether you tell them or not. Very, very soon, like, Google is just gonna mark things as AI generated.”

“I expect to see more DPO models than anything else in the next six months.”

“Intel bought that company from him, and then shut it down, and bought this other AI company, and now that company is kind of, ah, you know, got new chips. They're gonna release a better chip than the H 100, ah, within the next quarter or so, right?”

“AMD. They have a GPU. MI 300. That will be better than the H 100 in a quarter or so. Now, that says nothing about how hard it is to program it, but at least hardware-wise, on paper, it's better.”