Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2029
Kamradt Predicts ARC-AGI-3 Benchmark Will Remain Unbeaten For 3 Years
“And then V three, our durability estimate for that is three years. And that's what we're aiming for is 36 months for V three.”
Opinion
Kamradt: Any AGI Definition Involving Profit Has Ulterior Motives
“Any AGI definition that involves money has ulterior motives. I mean, simple as that. Money has nothing to do with intelligence, right?”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kamradt Predicts AGI Will Be Declared Via An Interactive Benchmark
“My hypothesis is that when AGI is declared, it will happen via an interactive benchmark. We're not going to know that AGI is here just via a static benchmark.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kamradt Predicts AGI Will Require Heavy Scaffolding and Cooperating Components
“Now I know that sounds kind of like a weird question, but my current hypothesis that AGI will be heavily scaffolded. And why do you have that? Well, my hypothesis is that you're going to need different components that are working together in order to get the e…”
Insight
Kamradt: Human-Built Benchmarks Prevent AI From Reverse-Engineering Generation Code
“And the problem with that is that we don't want to incentivize AI to derive the program that made the game. Right? And so if we continue to have humans make the game, then the AI is incentivized to try to reverse engineer the G inside of humans, and that's kin…”
Insight
Kamradt Defines AGI as When AI Can Solve All Human-Created Tasks
“Because our hypothesis and our definition of AGI is as long as we can come up with problems that humans can do and AI cannot, then we do not have AGI. And then the flip side of that is also true, which is When us as ArcPrize, we're like, we consider ourselves,…”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Kamradt Predicts ARC-AGI-2 Will Not Be Beaten For 12 Months
“My guess is it's not going to be beat for the next 12 months.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kamradt: xAI Delaying Coder Model Release To Beat Specific Rival
“I heard rumors that, that Grok doesn't want to release the coding model until it's better than one specific other lab out there. So they're going to wait and see when it's actually better for the, to, they can have that marketing point.”
Insight
Kamradt: Synthetic RL Transfers Developer Intelligence Rather Than Creating True Intelligence
“Often what happens is the human or developer intelligence is often injected into that environment itself, and so the model isn't actually Intelligent. You're just almost like taking the intelligence from the developer, injecting it into the environment, and th…”
Assertion Supported
Kamradt: No AI Has Beaten Any ARC-AGI-3 Game Level Yet
“It's still true. We have yet to have an AI successfully beat any level on any of these games. So it hasn't happened yet.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Kamradt Predicts OpenAI Will Delay o5 Release Until 2026
“O five is not coming out this year is my guess, you know, it's going to be coming out next year.”
Disclosure
Kamradt: ARC Prize Measures Intelligence via Energy and Data Efficiency
“So humans, they do not have an internet's worth of training data in their training data, but yet they can still do generally intelligent things. Whereas we're not seeing that with AI right now. So energy and training data are the two denominators that we use f…”
Disclosure
Kamradt Announces ARC-AGI-3 Will Feature 100 Novel Game Environments
“We're coming out with RKGI three. And what this is gonna be is it's gonna be a series of a hundred different novel environments, or you could simply call them a hundred different novel games that we're making ourselves.”
Insight
Kamradt: Action Step Count is Core Metric for AI Learning Efficiency
“When we report learning efficiency for this, especially with AI versus humans, it's all going to be around how many actions do you take in order to complete the goal of the environment, which not only does that encompass learning what the environment entails, …”
Assertion Supported
Kamradt: ARC Prize Validated Grok 4 Benchmark Scores Privately
“We ran it on semi-private. It worked out, looked great, validated.”
Assertion Supported
Kamradt: Mike Knoop Put Up $1M for ARC Prize Bounty
“Mike actually put he put up a million dollars of his own money and said, Hey, I'm going to put a bounty. So for anybody who can beat this benchmark, they're going to get a million dollars.”
Disclosure
Kamradt: ARC-AGI-3 Preview Launches Five Games
“So as a part of the preview, we're launching five games. Now, three of them are going to be public on day one, and two of them are going to be private.”
Disclosure
Kamradt: ARC-AGI-3 Provides AI Agents With a 64x64 JSON Grid
“So we'll show the same thing to AI, except that AI is gonna get a JSON grid list of lists. So those get a bunch of numbers, 64 by 64, and they can choose to turn that into an image if they want to, or agnostic, do whatever you want with it if they want to do m…”
Disclosure
Kamradt: ARC-AGI-3 Agents Interact via 64x64 Frames and Integer Actions
“What agents will get is agents will get a series of frames and those frames will be 64 by 64. Now generally it's just going to be one frame, but you might be able to get like maybe two in a row or three in a row, and that would show an animation. And so beginn…”
Assertion Supported
Kamradt: Random Brute Force Agent Fails ARC-AGI-3 Locksmith Game
“One of the quality checks that we do is we run a random agent at a million steps to see if it beats it or not. And no, it doesn't beat lockstep at all or locksmith.”
Disclosure
Kamradt: ARC-AGI-3 Features Large Percentage of Non-Agent Puzzle Games
“We have a requirement that games must be novel from each other. We have
A large percentage of games that are non-agent based. So think of it as like solitaire or connect four or like Simon or memory or something like that. Those are non-agent based games.”
Disclosure
Kamradt: ARC-AGI-3 Targets 120 Benchmark Games by Q1 2026
“Our goal is to come out with a 120 by Q one of next year.”
Disclosure
Kamradt: ARC-AGI-4 Will Expand Beyond 2D 64x64 Grids
“So without knowing what the exact answer is, I do know that RKGI four or five or whatever it may be, will need to allow us to have more axes of freedom that are above a two D 64 by 64 type of grid that comes from there.”
Assertion Supported
Kamradt: xAI Increased RL Compute on Grok 4 Tenfold
“They tend X the RL that they put on top of Grok for that.”
