Evan Conrad, co-founder of compute marketplace SF Compute, discusses shifting GPU supply and demand cycles driven by test-time inference and hardware rollouts.
“My general prediction is that like by the winter we will be back towards shortage, but then also this very much depends on
The rollout of future chips.”
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More from Evan Conrad
PredictionNot checkable as stated
Conrad: Hyperscalers will probably lose significant money reselling Nvidia GPUs
“My intuition is that the hyperscalers are probably going to lose a lot of money, and they know they're going to lose a lot of money on reselling NVIDIA GPUs at least.”
Conrad: Decentralized compute networks will never beat co-located InfiniBand clusters
“I just don't really think this is gonna ever be more efficient than a fully interconnected cluster with Infiniband, or, you know, whatever sort of next spec might be. Like, I could be completely wrong, but Speedolite is really hard to beat. And regardless of w…”
Conrad: The AI VC bubble will pop and fail to return capital
“So what you've done by not having a future is you've inflated the venture capital market. And that is a bubble that's totally going to pop at some point. Like a lot of the companies are not going to work. And the valuations are not going to work. And what's go…”
Conrad: Software margins on GPU clusters drive customers to build in-house
“So if you have a 10% margin increase because you have great software on your billion dollars, the customers are that price sensitive. They will immediately switch off if they can, because why wouldn't you? You would just take that hundred million dollars, you'…”
Conrad: CoreWeave's debt-financed long-term contract model is optimal for GPUs
“So that means that the best way to make money in GPUs was to do basically exactly what CoreWeave did which is go out and sign only long-term contracts, pretty much ignore the bottom end of the market completely, and then maximize your long-term contracts with …”
Conrad: GPU businesses succeed as pure real estate or pure software, not both
“The GPU clouds are fantastic real estate businesses. If you treat them like real estate businesses, you will make a lot of money. The, Cloud services you can make on that, all the software you want to make on that, you can do that fantastically. If you don't o…”
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