The Calls

⏳ Open 📼 The record

Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.

2open predictions
0due for another look
1closed calls →
1634days to next prediction date
Everyone Shawn Wang (7)Diego Bachman (5)Nathan Lambert (4)Dylan Patel (4)Doug O'Laughlin (3)Anjney Midha (3)Thomas Sohmers (2)Soumith Chintala (2)Samuel Colvin (2)Priscilla Chan (2)Pratyush Maini (2)Michelle Pokrass (2)
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Next up (2)

1634 days left 2031-03-06
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2031
Chintala: Home robotics is five to seven years away from commercialization
“Home robotics being, like, five to seven years away into commercialization. I think, like, It's not, like, next year or two years from now, but, like, five to seven years from now, I think, like, a lot more robotics companies might pop out.”
Soumith Chintala Mar 6, 2024 ▶ 1:22:03 Open Source AI is AI we can Trust — with Soumith Chintala of Meta AI
17340 days left 2074-03-06
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2074
Chintala: In 50 years, remote smell will accompany digital media
“50 years from now, it would be pretty obvious to, like, kids of the generation to just, like, you know, I guess I was saying, I was gonna say roll a reel on their phone, maybe phones will be, they're just like, you know, on their glasses, they're watching some…”
Soumith Chintala Mar 6, 2024 ▶ 1:32:33 Open Source AI is AI we can Trust — with Soumith Chintala of Meta AI

Closed calls (1) the full record →

Prediction Held up
Chintala: Meta will have over 600k H100 GPU equivalents by end of 2024
“That is by the end of this year, and 600 K H-One hundred equivalents. With 250 K H-one hundreds and including all of the other GPU or accelerator stuff, it would be 600 and something K aggregate capacity.”
Soumith Chintala Mar 6, 2024 ▶ 46:07 Open Source AI is AI we can Trust — with Soumith Chintala of Meta AI
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