Insight
Park: Training is required for new world physics, while prompting suffices for reactions
“My intuition behind the actual, when do you train or even post train a model versus just prompt a model is if the model has to learn the underlying physics of the world that it's operating in. So it has to learn new social physics. The places where it doesn't …”
Opinion
Park: Public LLMs lack real human social physics due to web data bias
“I don't think the model has yet, at least the models that are out in the open, has yet learned the complete mapping of social physics of humanity. This actually is one of the core thesis of simile, right? And one of the core reason why that is the case is if y…”
Assertion Supported
Park: Generative agent digital twins replicate human behavior at 85% accuracy
“And this is where we basically could replicate people's behaviors and attitudes, 85% as accurately as people would replicate their own. So that actually was the first really paper that gave this validated results that we can actually model individuals in an ac…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Park: Frontier models hit only 20-30% accuracy predicting niche human behavior
“Where in some cases, the model performance of frontier models go all the way down to 20, 30%. Especially if you go into that more niche population on topics that our customers will actually care about. On more gen pop, it might be around 50 to 60%.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Park: Future simulations will cost as much to run as training models
“My hunch here is I do think in the next Some number of years, we will start creating simulations that will actually cost as much as training a foundation model.”
Insight
Park: Agent simulations beat multi-year field trials via instant repeated execution
“This is the reason why you want to run a simulation. You spend five years, forty million dollars on this one study and have one finding. But if you can run simulation many, many times instantly, then that's the value.”
Insight
Park: Accurate human simulation models must precede complex automation agents
“This technology around simulation, creating accurate representation of people ought to precede the more complex agents that would automate the world that we live in.”
Opinion
Park: No true AI personal assistant exists today despite industry ambitions
“My hot take actually here though, is I don't think we've actually seen a true personal assistant that's actually useful in ways that actually meets the ambition of that particular line of work.”
Insight
Park: Advanced simulation discovers multi-step paths to achieve a target outcome
“So really what simulation allows you to do in its highest form is you give it not a problem or question, like what would people answer to the survey? That's not what we do. What we tell it is Here is a goal that we have. In the context of foundation, we want t…”
Assertion Supported
Park: Training on randomized controlled trials improves AI human-behavior prediction
“That by collecting a lot of these randomized control trials that are really well designed, we can make significant improvement in models capability to predict human behaviors.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Park: Simile observes empirical scaling laws when modeling human behavior
“What we are seeing is at Simile, so we do post-train our own model. The thing that we're actually seeing is the early glimpse of scaling law in simulations. The more data about humans and more compute you ingest, you actually start to get predictive and predic…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Park: A Nobel Prize in economics will be won from societal simulations
“And, you know, I also think, yes, I mean, I think there's a Nobel Prize to be won there, which wouldn't be surprising.”
Insight
Park: LLMs Trained on Web Data Can Accurately Simulate Human Behavior
“These models are actually trained on this very broad data from the web, right? So these are human behavioral data. It's the, it's social media, Wikipedia, all these kind of data. So if you poke At the right angle, then you could see human behavior that would j…”
Insight
Park: Childhood memories and trauma inform behavioral foundation models
“Even understanding their childhood memory or Even their trauma, their first love, these kind of things, quite informative in ways that's really hard to predict.”
Insight
Park: Decision-makers want simulation to shape the future, not predict it
“The reason why people are interested in simulation actually isn't because they want to predict the future. If you're winning against, if you're trying to win against a stock market, predicting the future is interesting, but most people, most decision makers, w…”
Insight
Park: Real decision stakes distinguish behavioral data from attitudinal data
“What makes the difference between what is attitudinal versus behavioral is if the stake in your decision is real. That's ultimately what makes it behavioral.”
Disclosure
Park: Simile aims to build models that replicate human errors
“The models that we're talking about here, what we're trying to create are models that are as dumb as I am, right? So if I make some mistakes, the model has to make the same kind of mistake.”
Opinion
Park: Facebook data better captures human baseline state than LinkedIn or Twitter
“If we were to look at purely social media, like if you really, you know, if I were, you know, if I had to really pick, Facebook likely is interesting because I actually do think it is most sort of a default version of people because you go to LinkedIn, it's ve…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Park: Agent simulations are replacing traditional human panel research
“Today, a lot of the demand does come from basically, like, the places where people have historically used human panels, we can basically now replace with agents. And these synthetic populations.”
Insight
Park: AGI and simulation are the twin pillar technologies of advanced civilizations
“You look at any advanced civilization in science fiction, there's two twin pillar technology. One's AGI in some form, and the other is simulation.”
Disclosure
Park: Simile uses life story interviews for behavioral models
“We think about data in three buckets. So one bucket is actually, we interview data, for instance. It's quite interesting. A qualitative, rich qualitative data is interesting. It's not behavioral, but we would literally ask people, hey, tell me the story of you…”
Disclosure
Park: Simile AI has a strategic partnership with Gallup
“We do have a strategic partnership with Gallup, and of course, Gallup is deep into policy space and so forth.”
Disclosure
Park: Simile always trains separate population-level and individual-level models
“And this is actually what we end up doing at Simile II. We always train two distinct models. One is what we call the population level model. The other is what we call the individual level model.”
Disclosure
Park: Simile collects weekly data on tens of thousands and accesses tens of millions
“Today what we do is every week we are collecting data on the scale of tens of thousands people's data. And we actually have panel partnerships that gets us to tens of millions of people globally.”
