Prediction Held up AI assessment confidence: 95% certainty 4/5 debate potential 2/5

Natale: Permafrost thaw will reach 30% to 70% by 2100

Dr. Sue Natale · The climate wild card: permafrost · Jul 13, 2022 · at 17:44

Dr. Sue Natale discusses global permafrost thaw projections under ambitious climate action versus business-as-usual scenarios.

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“There's a, there's an Kind of a range of possibilities for how much permafrost will thaw, say, by 2100, and number of different, based on a number of different models, but the range always stays somewhere between 30 to 70%, something like that, and I think about that number a lot because that doesn't mean, like, we don't know what the number is. It could be 30, it could be 70. It's the 30% is actually if we take really ambitious, ambitious climate action, right? So some is going to thaw, it's going to be 30%. If we do nothing and continue as we are now, that's 70%.”

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More from Dr. Sue Natale

Assertion Supported
Natale: Most climate models omit permafrost or ignore abrupt thaw and wildfires
“Many of the models either don't include permafrost at all. The very few that do don't account for these abrupt ground collapses that are happening. They don't account for the impact of wildfire and permafrost, which can greatly accelerate thaw.”
Dr. Sue Natale Jul 13, 2022 ▶ 12:04 The climate wild card: permafrost
Assertion Supported
Natale: Permafrost stores 1.5 trillion tons of carbon, double atmospheric levels
“It's about 1.5 trillion tons of carbon. So every tree and every forest on the planet, it's three times more carbon than that that's stored in permafrost. And almost twice as much carbon stored in permafrost than is in the atmosphere.”
Dr. Sue Natale Jul 13, 2022 ▶ 1:19 The climate wild card: permafrost
Assertion Supported
Natale: 15% of Northern Hemisphere Land Area Underlain by Permafrost
“15% of the northern hemisphere land areas underlain by permafrost.”
Dr. Sue Natale Jul 13, 2022 ▶ 3:55 The climate wild card: permafrost
Assertion Partly supported
Natale: Viable Seeds Thousands of Years Old Discovered in Permafrost
“They found seeds from permafrost that are still viable, that are thousands of years old.”
Dr. Sue Natale Jul 13, 2022 ▶ 5:05 The climate wild card: permafrost
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Natale: Arctic Communities First Noticed Permafrost Thaw Through Collapsing Ice Cellars
“People who live on permafrost were, you know, the first ones really noticing what's happening because their ice cellars were, weren't functioning, right? And they were starting to collapse and the food, food was going bad and just, you know, meat that the peop…”
Dr. Sue Natale Jul 13, 2022 ▶ 5:16 The climate wild card: permafrost
Assertion Supported
Natale: The Arctic is warming at least three times faster than global average
“It's, you know, warming at least three times faster than the rest of the planet in the Arctic”
Dr. Sue Natale Jul 13, 2022 ▶ 6:14 The climate wild card: permafrost
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