The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone Ramez Naam (5)Dacia Leone (5)Stephen Lacey (4)Rick Needham (4)John O'Donnell (4)Jigar Shah (4)Tadeu Carneiro (3)Steve Cotton (3)Saritha Paruri (3)Katherine Hamilton (3)Yayoi Sekine (2)Will Hazlip (2)
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Next up (42)
109 days left 2026-12-31
305 days left 2027-07-15
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560 days left 2028-03-26
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1216 days left 2030-01-11
1570 days left 2030-12-31
1570 days left 2030-12-31
1570 days left 2030-12-31
O'Donnell: Intermittent renewable power will economically eclipse fossil fuels globally by 2030
“By 20 30 in most of the industrialized world, the conditions that exist in the six European countries where we're developing projects now in Australia and the half dozen US states, those market conditions exist in most of the industrialized world that you can …”
1570 days left 2030-12-31
1570 days left 2030-12-31
Cotton: Global Battery Recycling Market Will Reach $25 Billion by 2030
“And if you look at the global lithium battery recycling market, it's already today roughly a five billion dollar industry, And we expect it to grow by about five-fold just in the coming few years to the end of the decade to nearly twenty-five billion dollars.”
1570 days left 2030-12-31
1570 days left 2030-12-31
1570 days left 2030-12-31
Sekine: Gigawatt-hour scale battery projects will likely become standard by 2030
“I think the fully formed ones are probably around gigawatt hour scale projects. We see a couple of examples of those today, but I think expecting them to be the norm of how company, like a lot of large scale projects might go forward. I imagine that's going to…”
1570 days left 2030-12-31
Green hydrogen will become cheaper than blue hydrogen by 2030
“If we scaled it up to potentially hundreds of gigawatts by the end of the decade and going further, we expect the cost of that equipment to decline by 50, 60, or 70% or so, which really drives cost reductions of Green or renewable hydrogen below the cost of pr…”
1570 days left 2030-12-31
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2301 days left 2032-12-31
Naam: IRA spending will reach trillions due to uncapped subsidies
“It's not four and fifty billion dollars of federal spending a year. It's like trillions. Because the IRA is not a pool of money. It's a per unit subsidy. And forecasters always do what? On unit forecasts, they always underestimate it, right? So the actual size…”
2354 days left 2033-02-22
Boyle: Inflation Reduction Act incentives guarantee renewable cost advantages through 2033
“You know, I don't know where things are gonna go, but I think the fact that the Inflation Reduction Act incentives are durable for the next 10 years mean that the trend we've observed is, is not going anywhere fast.”
2403 days left 2033-04-12
Morris: Edge assets will reach 30-50% of grid capacity within 10 years
“And if you look at all of those assets, so all of these small scale assets, Those are really going to be the future of how we balance the grid in the next 10 years. They're going to account for anywhere between, like, 30 and 50% of total system capacity.”
3031 days left 2034-12-31
3032 days left 2035-01-01
Kra: Commercial grid fusion will not arrive before 2035 to 2040
“In twenty-thirty-five and twenty-forty, we're probably going to see some there in that range. We might see a first commercial reactor producing electrons onto the grid, but I think before that, it's all going to be, if we do well, it's going to be pilots and d…”
3396 days left 2035-12-31
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4492 days left 2038-12-31
Orthofer: Green hydrogen cost parity delayed 5 to 8 years past 2030
“If I look back at our forecast from 20 20, for when we would achieve cost parity between green hydrogen and grey hydrogen, we said this would be by the end of this decade. I think by now we've moved that out by five to eight years, depending on geography, just…”
4689 days left 2039-07-16
4857 days left 2039-12-31
Orthofer: Max 30% of abatement needs commercially viable by late 2030s
“Despite sort of huge cost down historically and projected, we will not get to more than 20 or 30% of all abatement needs being sort of fully in the money or fully sort of commercially mature by the end of the 20 thirties, which I guess is a rather, was for me …”
6074 days left 2043-05-01
6383 days left 2044-03-05
Cotton: Recycled lithium content will reach 80% to 90% in decades
“More and more recycling infrastructure gets built. We get closer and closer and migrate from that less than one percent to 80 to 90%, just like what lead has shown us. And it's really only a couple decades of recycling, so it'll happen fairly quickly.”
8875 days left 2050-12-31
8875 days left 2050-12-31
Hydrogen electrolyzers could consume one-third of global power by 2050
“By twenty-fifty, under a net zero scenario, electrolyzers producing hydrogen take up a third of all electricity demand almost, just to power power themselves to produce hydrogen. So all of global, a third of all global electricity demand.”
8875 days left 2050-12-31
8875 days left 2050-12-31
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9322 days left 2052-03-22
Harris: Miami must spend $6B on climate adaptation over 30 years
“The city of Miami specifically is going to have to spend around six billion dollars in the next 20 or 30 years installing stormwater pumps, raising roads, making the pipes underneath the road big enough to handle all the extra water, and fixing seawalls.”
16634 days left 2072-03-29
Kimber: Five clean energy sectors will become multi-hundred-billion industries
“So, you know, those five industries are what we've identified as, you know, the areas where we think there is inevitable growth in the sort of hundreds of billions of dollars. These are industries that could easily be some of the largest industries that our pl…”
Closed calls (56) the full record →
Natale: Permafrost thaw will reach 30% to 70% by 2100
“There's a, there's an Kind of a range of possibilities for how much permafrost will thaw, say, by 2100, and number of different, based on a number of different models, but the range always stays somewhere between 30 to 70%, something like that, and I think abo…”
Lott: Up to 17 states tied to California rules may ban gas cars
“New York is also banning gas-powered car sales by twenty-thirty-five, and soon, as many as 17 other states, like Washington and Massachusetts, which currently have vehicle emissions standards tied to California's, may follow suit.”
Gard-Murray: Heat pump incentives will save consumers $27 billion over a decade
“Over the next decade, we project that a conversion incentive like the one we wrote about would save consumers twenty seven billion dollars.”
Paruri: All-perovskite tandems could achieve 60% to 70% efficiency
“And over time, you can engineer out the silicon, and you're just doing perovskite on perovskite on perovskite tandems, You can get to 60 or 70% efficiency.”
Lacey: Solar and wind will constitute ~92% of 2030 renewable additions
“So solar is probably going to make up about two-thirds of the target here, and solar is just the least cost resource in many areas of the world, so it will continue to dominate. Solar and wind together will make up about 92% of this tripling target, but solar …”
2030 green hydrogen goals would consume 16% of new renewables
“If about a 20 millimetric tons or so of clean hydrogen are produced globally by the end of the decade, And we got to about 16% of all the renewables we expect to deploy this decade will just go to the production of hydrogen.”
Proposed manufacturing can meet hundreds of gigawatts of demand by 2030
“In terms of, if you look at the supply chain we think there's enough proposed electrolyzer manufacturing capacity and proposals to do, build more electrolyzers that you could supply all those few hundred gigawatts of electrolyzers by the end of the decade if a…”
Shah: Trump administration will roll back wind and solar pauses to avoid blackouts
“I think they're going to be forced to pull it back too, just because it's 90% of everything that gets deployed in the grid, right? And so at some point, if none of that stuff gets deployed in the grid, we're going to have rolling blackouts.”
Janus: Advanced nuclear and fusion will not solve grid problems this decade
“They're not solving any problems this decade, right? That is a 20 thirties and probably a late 20 thirties. Opportunity.”
Lovins: Russia's war will push global fossil fuel use into steep decline
“Putin's war really puts the last nails in that coffin, turning what was usually forecast as a bumpy plateau of fossil fuel use for most of the rest of this decade into a steep decline.”
Bhargava: Individual AI data centers will add 1.5 gigawatts of load
“Data centers are going to get real hairy. It is going to be a lot of load coming on very, very, very quickly, and the power sector has not dealt with that much load that quickly when you've got a gigawatt and a half, you know data center coming online, and tha…”
Munster: Foreign Electrolyzers Will Reach Half the Cost of Western Units
“At some point, those foreign electrolyzers are going to cost, installed, half the price that ours do, because we're not moving down the cost curve while they are.”
Davis: Only 50 GW of 120 GW announced US capacity will materialize
“Again, like I said, we don't anticipate all of that. 120 gigawatts of module manufacturing is going to get built. We expect it'll be more like, you know, 50 or so over the next you know, four or five years.”
Planned US LNG expansion would surpass Europe's total greenhouse gas emissions
“If we let it go all the way that the LNG industry wants, Soon enough, American LNG exports will be producing more greenhouse gas emissions than everything that goes on in Europe.”
Pending project approvals could quadruple US LNG export capacity
“There's a whole wave of new proposals Coming after that that, if this administration approves, could even quadruple LNG from where we are today.”
Graphitic Energy's single pilot will provide all required commercial scale-up data
“We feel really confident that that will give us all the scale-up data we need. It isn't a, well, we built this pilot because this is what we could kind of get done, and then we kind of have to go build a second one that goes and de-risks these other things. It…”
Naam: Odds of limiting global warming to 1.5°C are minuscule
“But the bad news is we have missed 1.5 degrees C, and I don't know how to say this anymore clearly, because there are people that will tell you that we might hit it. The odds of that are minuscule.”
Hazlip: Upstate New York will host an early large-scale green hydrogen facility
“We think upstate New York is already gonna be home to the, one of the first large-scale clean, green hydrogen production facilities in the country, and that's because of the abundance of the clean energy in that area.”
Francetic: Mandatory climate disclosure regulation is still coming to the US
“We knew these disclosures and this regulation was coming, because we could see what was happening in Europe, and we could see that this pressure that was being placed globally on big investors to try to disclose this was gaining momentum in the U.S., even thou…”
Davis: Solar manufacturing will shift predominantly to N-type modules by 2028
“So we're going to witness over the course of the next three, four years A pretty big shift from mostly P-type modules, which is just, you know, a cell technology that's mostly the older technology, to predominantly N-type modules, and particularly technologies…”
Grunwald: Ocean wild fish catches cannot expand beyond current levels
“There's no way we're gonna get more fish from the ocean than we're getting now. You know, at best, we can sustain it.”
Eggers predicts climate VCs will back core AI companies within three years
“I'd be surprised if we and EIP and others like us don't have in two or three years at least a couple of companies who have, you know, an AI co-pilot or something where AI is the core offering of what they're doing.”
Noel: Weaning off Russian gas will accelerate European decarbonization
“So, whatever is done to win ourselves off Russian natural gas will be leveraged to accelerate our decarbonization objectives. In that sense, it's positive. Governments in Europe will be empowered, potentially dramatically so, to accelerate the transformation o…”
Hamilton: Treasury Will Likely Retain 45V Three Pillars Hydrogen Framework
“I suspect they will. I suspect that they will simply come up with ways in which you can use existing resources at certain times to be able to qualify so that you really are getting clean, green hydrogen and you're not leaving plants that are, that aren't reall…”