Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kimber: US Grid Transmission Issues Will Not Get Fixed
“No one has the incentive to actually fix the problem, and that's why it won't get fixed.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kimber: Most projects in transmission queues will never be built
“Most of the stuff that's in the queue isn't even going to get built because there's no land that's even reasonable around those queue positions, right? There it's, you'd have to build something that costs twice as much as it should because the geotechnical con…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kimber: Energy load will move directly to power generation sites
“Load will come to generation, right? So load is going to move toward the generation because the grid isn't going to be able to deliver that generation. And that's, you'll see it most, in a most pronounced fashion in these new industries because they don't have…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2072
Kimber: Five clean energy sectors will become multi-hundred-billion industries
“So, you know, those five industries are what we've identified as, you know, the areas where we think there is inevitable growth in the sort of hundreds of billions of dollars. These are industries that could easily be some of the largest industries that our pl…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2027
Kimber: Direct air capture costs will drop to $100-$200 per ton
“There are plenty of them out there at industrial scales that will definitely get down into the, you know, 102 hundred dollar, you know, a ton kind of level, at which point capture becomes your backstop technology, if you will, and it will set the price point a…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kimber: Industrial energy clusters will concentrate in the Texas Panhandle
“We believe there will be large clusters around places like the Panhandle of Texas, where the wind and the sun are very, very advantageous, and the cost of power can not only be low, but Also, the capacity factor, even without battery storage, can be, you know,…”
Opinion
Kimber: Very Few Hydrogen Developers Have Built 500MW+ Renewable Facilities
“I challenge most people who call themselves hydrogen developers, you know, when you talk to them to ask them how many, 500 megawatt plus renewable facilities they built, because there aren't very many of those, but there's a lot of hydrogen developers.”
Insight
Kimber: Most corporate green energy buyers are quietly saving money on power
“The kind of dirty little secret is that most of those companies have been saving money too, right? So they've all been, you know, heroes for the climate, but they've also been kind of making money out the back door, buying really cheap energy from guys like me…”
Opinion
Kimber: Clean hydrogen and Bitcoin mining have viable models on cheap renewables
“There is very much a business model for making clean hydrogen or Bitcoin or whatever it is from low cost renewables.”
Insight
Kimber: Scaling hydrogen electrolyzers does not require radical scientific breakthroughs
“And so electrolyzers, for instance, while they're off, they're very clearly some great tech out there and there may be some breakthrough tech out there, it's not required, right? You can take technology that has been around for quite a while and with some incr…”
Assertion Contradicted
Kimber: Industrial steam generation accounts for 20% of global carbon emissions
“You've got 20% of global carbon emissions that come from essentially boiling water to do things like make, you know, everything from consumer packaged goods and, you know cardboard packaging to, you know, drying food.”
Insight
Kimber: Small distributed clean energy projects fail to scale profitably
“When you're trying to scale a development business, you oftentimes wind up chasing, like, the small but very profitable project. And the problem with those is even if, you know, you tell yourself, ah, but there's a scalable opportunity here because there are 1…”
Assertion Supported
Kimber: US Grid Must Grow 60% by 2030 and Triple by 2050
“If you look at what we need, the grid needs to grow by about 60% by 2030, right, according to some studies for us to meet our climate goals. It needs to triple in size by 20 50.”
Insight
Kimber: Renewable development has low entry barriers but high exit barriers
“There are really, really low barriers to entry in this business and really, really high barriers to actually successful exit.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kimber: Texas Panhandle Electrolysis Will Reach Tens of Gigawatts
“So, you know, over the longer term, I think that will be the very, very scalable output here, because the scale of what we're talking about, say, in the panhandle is, you know, ultimately probably in the tens of gigawatts of electrolysis by the time this is al…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kimber: Energy-intensive businesses will reprioritize energy availability over decarbonization alone
“I do think a reprioritization around not just clean energy, but energy availability is coming for very, very energy intensive businesses generally.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kimber: Utilities could build localized regional microgrids in constrained renewable zones
“So you could actually see kind of localized transmission networks even if it's not behind the meter serving as kind of almost like mini microgrid or, you know, maxi microgrids, if you will, you know larger versions of microgrids that are still public utilities…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kimber: Electrolyzers will follow the same cost drop curve as solar and batteries
“It happened in solar. It then happened in wind. It's happening in batteries. It'll happen in electrolyzers.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kimber: Low-heat industrial steam can be decarbonized using existing electrification technologies
“There's a lot of steel, and there's a lot of cement, but there's also an enormous amount of relatively low quality, low heat steam that is out there that could easily be addressed with even today's electrification technologies.”
Insight
Kimber: Large EV charging stations can operate as wholesale power plants
“Opportunities then for these charging stations to essentially participate as, you know, wholesale power plants, right? Providing storage services to the grid, that sort of thing.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kimber: Clean energy scaling ultimately depends on local community permitting acceptance
“Ironically, it is going to come down to people and neighbors and whether or not they allow these solutions to be built in their neighborhoods, in their counties, in their towns for us to scale as fast enough.”
