why aren't all 2,415 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 82 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Elon Musk scrapped Tesla's Model 2 on the spot for the robotaxi
“When he saw the robotaxi, he was so bowled over by whatever it was he saw in it, right, that he remarked to his to his team, wow, you know, this looks great. Let's just do this. He scrapped the Model Two on the spot, and he said, let's do the robotaxi. We're d…”
Assertion Supported
Cumulative US LNG emissions could exceed the footprint of 1,000 coal plants
“If you add up all the emissions from what's in operation, all the emissions from what's under construction, all the emissions from what is being proposed beyond that, we could be talking about the emission footprint of about a thousand, actually more than a th…”
Assertion Supported
Del Chiaro: California solar sales fell 80% after net metering changes
“California just announced, you know, just put in place major changes to the number one driver to that market, which was net metering, and we just got data today that shows that sales are down 80% across the state.”
Opinion
Abbott: 2021 Texas blackouts prove fossil fuels are necessary
“Sean, this shows how the Green New Deal would be a deadly deal for the United States of America. As a result it just shows that fossil fuel is necessary for the state of Texas as well as other states.”
Assertion Supported
Green: Local anti-solar groups receive payments from climate denial networks
“And then they're supported by groups online or in their state or in their community that have ulterior motives, which we found. They're getting payments from organizations that have connections to climate denial,”
Opinion
Niedermeyer: Tesla's self-driving pitch works by matching consumer mental models
“And the reason Tesla's been successful at that is not because it's technically plausible at all. It's because it fits exactly what's in the mental model of the American consumer when they hear the word self-driving cars. And Tesla's the only company that's sel…”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Utility union president directed extreme misogynistic slurs at female city council members
“At a city council meeting, after it was clear that things were not going to go in their direction, the president of the union himself said, I'm not resting till that fucking red flower, Corella de Vil cunt, and all those other fucking bitches are voted off tha…”
Opinion
Brophy: Fossil fuel assets are the new subprime mortgages
“The fact that fossil fuel assets are basically the new subprime mortgages. It's existential for them because some of these disclosures could expose that.”
Prediction Held up
Biden: The US Will Bring an End to Nord Stream 2
“There will be no longer a North Stream Two. We will bring an end to it.”
Disclosure
Manchin: I Cannot Vote to Continue with Build Back Better
“If I can't go home and explain it to the people of West Virginia, I can't vote for it. And I cannot vote to continue with this piece of legislation. I just can't. I've tried everything humanly possible. I can't get there.”
Opinion
Jurowicz: Gen-IV reactors solve problems the industry does not currently face
“The things, the problems that Gen-Fur reactors solve are not the problems we're faced right now, we're facing right now. We just need a lot of low-cost, affordable nuclear power. We don't have to reinvent the wheel.”
Assertion Contradicted
Hickenlooper: House reconciliation bill proposed taxing all wind and solar energy
“The House bill came over and it had a tax on all wind energy and solar energy. So no, no longer are we going to give them tax credits, but we're going to, you know, we're going to tax them.”
Opinion
Hickenlooper: Environmental nonprofits fund overhead by opposing and slowing development
“Part of it is we have to recognize that all these non, non-profit organizations, they are organisms. They have a life of their own, and like any organism, they're gonna, they don't wanna make themselves extinct. And so they've been raising money to pay for the…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Needham: CFS will demonstrate commercial net energy gain by 2027
“We're building a plant just about an hour west of here that in 2027 will show net energy gain in a commercially relevant architecture.”
Opinion
Garabedian: Siemens, ThyssenKrupp, and Cummins margin models will fail in hydrogen
“If you look at the incumbent electrolyzer producers they're the big industrials. I'm talking about companies like Siemens and ThyssenKrupp Cummins, who are not in the business of mercilessly driving cost out of their products, right? They're heavy industrial s…”
Opinion
Garabedian: Nel and Plug Power lack the technical innovation to cut costs
“Then there are kind of some pure plays, companies like Nell, like Plug Power's not quite a pure play, but you could put them in that category. And these are folks who Haven't shown the desire maybe, or the ability to be highly innovative technically to drive c…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Das: Most Congressional Republicans now acknowledge human-caused climate change
“By and large, the Republican Party is You know, full of members of Congress who very much believe climate change is happening and is happening. For reasons caused by humans, and now our set of discussions are around how do we solve the issue.”
Opinion
Shah: NRC is not currently the primary bottleneck for nuclear
“I would say that having done this nuclear stuff for the better part of three years, I don't know of a single project that was hurt in any material way by the NRC. Right? So I do see the NRC being a bottleneck where we're building 10 reactors a year, but we're …”
Assertion Contradicted
Shah: Wildfire costs account for only 3-5% of PG&E rate hikes
“You know, what amounts to, I think, 15% rate increases every year for the last four years for PG&E because of uncontrolled distribution grade investments, and it's not wildfire related. Let's just be crystal clear. People call it wildfire. Three to four percen…”
Opinion
Beebe: It is game over for hydrogen and internal combustion vehicles
“I, you know, I think it's game over for hydrogen based vehicles. It's game over for internal combustion engines.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Elon Musk canceled Tesla's affordable car to pursue a $10T AI pivot
“He's decided, I'm not a car company, I'm an AI and robotics company, and I'm about creating a 10 trillion dollar company that is based on first robotaxi, but then these humanoid robots, and he canceled, you know, the family car, the affordable car, the one tha…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tesla insiders doubt the robotaxi is ready to operate without pedals
“No one outside the company and no one inside the company who I spoke to anyway believes that the robotaxi is ready to be without a steering wheel, without pedals, and even if it were ready, that is ready for regulators are ready to say, yeah, go.”
Opinion
Firing the Supercharger team to bet on autonomous tech is irrational
“You get rid of the team responsible for your most valuable asset, and
You put all the bets of your company, you bet the company on a technology that isn't anywhere near ready for the market.
All of these things together, they're not rational.
They are not rati…”
What-if
Hurlbut: EV market would not exist without DOE loan to Tesla
“You know, we invested in Tesla, and that spurred the entire electrical vehicle market, and that wouldn't have happened without that government capital at a cheap rate.”
Opinion
O'Donnell: US developers are dangerously distracted by speculative hydrogen subsidies
“In the U.S., there's a developer community's attention, in my humble opinion, has been a bit attracted to the hydrogen subsidies, and that The place will get the next wave of growth for utility-scale solar. We'll be building hydrogen projects that sell hydroge…”
Opinion
Sussman warns refining industry may lock into blue hydrogen permanently
“It's really scary to me to think that the whole refining industry, which is one of the two largest users of gray hydrogen today, and is a prime candidate for switching to green, could go permanently in the direction of blue now, Sussman said.”
Opinion
St. John: Clean hydrogen incentives risk becoming a tax-credit mining scheme
“I fear some jockeying around from folks who see this as being either a tax credit mining or farming opportunity, or a chance to see their existing fossil fuel assets be repurposed for use in what is putatively a decarbonization strategy, but which runs the sig…”
Assertion Supported
Cornell research finds LNG lifecycle emissions are worse than coal
“It's been clear for years now that natural gas used domestically, because a lot of it leaks out, is pretty much akin to using coal, and now we have really interesting new data from Bob Howarth that Cornell, the kind of dean of methane scientists, who's done th…”
Prediction Partly held up
Planned US LNG expansion would surpass Europe's total greenhouse gas emissions
“If we let it go all the way that the LNG industry wants, Soon enough, American LNG exports will be producing more greenhouse gas emissions than everything that goes on in Europe.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
US emissions with LNG exports could surpass 2005 levels by 2030
“We could actually be looking at being above 2005 emission levels by 20 30 and beyond when you count in the export emissions that we're producing.”
Opinion
Wesoff: All advanced nuclear reactor designs are untested paper reactors
“All of the reactors in the advanced reactor population are paper reactors. We haven't built them. We haven't tested them.”
Opinion
Wesoff: SMRs are engineering solutions misapplied to financial and PR problems
“Small reactors, SMRs, are a nuclear engineering solution to a financial problem. We need a financial solution to this financial problem. Small modular reactors are a nuclear engineering, engineering solution to a PR problem. We need a PR solution to that, not …”
Opinion
Wesoff: Nuclear industry should build AP1000 reactors over novel designs
“We should be figuring out how to build AP 1000 instead of flailing around trying to find silver bullet designs that will rescue this industry.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wesoff: Ultra-cheap solar and storage may make advanced nuclear concepts obsolete
“We're gonna have amazingly cheap, abundant solar. Combined with storage, we may not need all of these advanced energy ideas.”
Opinion
Real-time electricity pricing is a terrible idea for retail consumers
“I also hear a lot of things about, we're magically gonna give everyone real-time rates. I think that's a terrible idea. I think that is a terrible idea. I think real-time rates are a, are an approach to trying to personalize, but actually passing the entirety …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kimber: US Grid Transmission Issues Will Not Get Fixed
“No one has the incentive to actually fix the problem, and that's why it won't get fixed.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Del Chiaro: PG&E's $55 monthly fixed charge will disincentivize solar
“PG&E now proposing 55 dollar a month fixed charge on all residential customers. Every single month, it will disincentivize efficiency and conservation and solar energy”
Assertion Supported
Del Chiaro: CPUC proposal forces multi-meter solar to repurchase generated power
“The Public Utilities Commission wants to apply the draconian changes to net metering and then some. They want to basically declare every electron that solar system generates on that apartment building and export and then force people to buy it back from PG&E a…”
Assertion Supported
Bowman: UN Draft Guidance Asserts Engineered Carbon Removal Is Unproven
“The Article VI supervisory body issued a guidance in May of this year, which by the way is not formally approved yet, and included a technical note that states that engineered carbon removal activities Do not contribute to sustainable development. The proposal…”
Opinion
Naam: Wilderness no longer exists; preserving ecosystems requires active human management
“There is no such thing as wilderness on planet Earth anymore. We have modified the climate such that if you're, if it's a forest, if it's a coral reef, if it's a wetlands, It doesn't exist in the same climactic band that that natural ecosystem evolved in. And …”
Opinion
Pichai: AI is more profound than fire or electricity
“You know, I've always thought of AI as the most profound technology humanity is working on. More profound than fire or electricity or anything that we have done in the past.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tomlinson: Bass Brothers and Dan Friedkin pushed SB 624 to preserve ranch views
“And we know where that comes from. It's a coalition of wealthy landowners it's the Bass Brothers from Fort Worth. It's Dan Friedkin, who's a Hollywood producer and banker. We know about the folks down in South Texas. These are people who own hobby ranches. Rea…”
Opinion
Shah: No EPC contractor will provide a guaranteed price on AP1000
“I don't think any EPC contractor wants to wrap that thing and provide you a guarantee price, but whatever, you know.”
Assertion Supported
O'Brien: Nearly 60% of US TV meteorologists denied climate change recently
“For a very long time in our country, TV meteorologists were Outright denialists when it came to climate change. 50 plus, I, it was close to 60% just a few years ago.”
Opinion
Steve Coll found reporting on Exxon scarier than covering the CIA
“I thought it was hard to report on the CIA, and I came to understand that Exxon was far more difficult and a little bit scarier even.”
Assertion Supported
Florida Power & Light paid Matrix millions to fund ghost candidates
“An investigation from the Miami Herald and Orlando Sentinel found that FPNL, Florida's biggest utility, sent millions of dollars to Matrix to prop up fake candidates in local races. Those so-called ghost candidates siphoned votes away from candidates who the u…”
Assertion Supported
Matrix used utility funds to secretly finance six local news sites
“The floodlight team found direct financial links between six local news outlets, Matrix, FPNL, and Alabama Power. Matrix used utility money to fund political websites with names like Alabama Today, Florida Politics, and The Capitalist, and buy favorable covera…”
Assertion Supported
Kra: Greg Becker told investors only a run could bring SVB down
“And then Greg said something peculiar on the call. He said, we're solvent. We're in great shape. And the only thing that can bring us down is if all of you tell all of your companies to start pulling out share money.”