Opinion
Shah: NRC is not currently the primary bottleneck for nuclear
“I would say that having done this nuclear stuff for the better part of three years, I don't know of a single project that was hurt in any material way by the NRC. Right? So I do see the NRC being a bottleneck where we're building 10 reactors a year, but we're …”
Assertion Contradicted
Shah: Wildfire costs account for only 3-5% of PG&E rate hikes
“You know, what amounts to, I think, 15% rate increases every year for the last four years for PG&E because of uncontrolled distribution grade investments, and it's not wildfire related. Let's just be crystal clear. People call it wildfire. Three to four percen…”
Opinion
Shah: No EPC contractor will provide a guaranteed price on AP1000
“I don't think any EPC contractor wants to wrap that thing and provide you a guarantee price, but whatever, you know.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Shah: Solar and wind generated 36% annualized returns since 2007
“Most of us who've been in the solar and wind industry have generated 36% annualized returns every single year since we were in there from 2007.”
Opinion
Shah: US transformer backlog stems from avoiding VPPs, not actual shortages
“This is why we have a three-year backlog on distribution transformers. It's not because we have a shortage of distribution transformers in this country. It's because everybody wants to fix the problem using 19 eighties approaches instead of virtual power plant…”
Assertion Partly supported
Shah: Oil and Gas Outspends Clean Energy 20 to 1 on Influence
“I think where we are today is that the clean energy industry in the United States, in all of its forms, invests roughly five hundred billion dollars a year but pays about two hundred million dollars a year in influence. The oil and gas industry invests about t…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Shah: Trump payment freezes will increase energy costs and private uncertainty
“But yet, I think that the actions that they're taking around freezing payments and some of the other things are going to lead to higher costs and a lot more uncertainty in the private sector, right?”
Opinion
Shah: Trump wind and solar pauses are retribution for Biden oil policies
“I think turnaround is fair play. Like, I mean, I really do think that the wind and solar pauses at the Army Corps Engineers and Fish and Wildlife are, you know, retribution for a lot of the stuff that the Biden administration did, the oil and gas industry”
Prediction Partly held up
Shah: Trump administration will roll back wind and solar pauses to avoid blackouts
“I think they're going to be forced to pull it back too, just because it's 90% of everything that gets deployed in the grid, right? And so at some point, if none of that stuff gets deployed in the grid, we're going to have rolling blackouts.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Shah: Clean energy platforms are selling out over cash and policy uncertainty
“There are platforms, for instance, that are for sale now. Yeah, that we don't have cash to make, make it through October, and we don't know what's going to happen, and we can't wait for certainty, and so we're selling out, right? So I think you're seeing the v…”
Assertion Supported
Shah: IRS scrutiny of renewable tax equity is continuing under Trump
“During the Biden administration, there was a big crackdown by the IRS on the renewable energy sector for tax credit and tax equity policies. Around step up in basis and some of that stuff, and I think the Trump administration is continuing all of that work, an…”
Assertion Supported
Shah: Solar Costs $30-$50/MWh Compared to $95/MWh for New Natural Gas
“Today, you know, solar power installed is, you know, 30 dollars a megawatt hour. Without the tax credits, it's 50 dollars a megawatt hour. That's more expensive than 30 dollars a megawatt hour. I get that. But that's not out of the money. Right? New natural ga…”
Assertion Partly supported
Shah: EVgo Is Basically Profitable Due to Higher DC Fast Charger Utilization
“EVgo is now basically profitable because of, like, they've got huge increases in the use of their DC fast chargers”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2029
Shah: Trump's DOE will honor all closed and obligated LPO loans
“But like, for closed loans and loans that have obligated funds, I think they'll honor all those loans.”
Assertion Supported
Shah: DOGE cannot reach $2T cuts without defense, Social Security, or healthcare
“The only places that matter if you're going to get to two trillion is defense, social security, and Medicaid, and Medicare. That's the only places that matter. Like, the discretionary part of the budget is so small that it just doesn't matter. You could zero i…”
Opinion
Shah: Chris Wright is a fantastic pick for Secretary of Energy
“I thought his memo was great. I thought it was well-balanced. I thought it was, you know, like, what you would have expected from a George W. Bush appointee. So, like, I think Chris Wright's a fantastic pick as the Secretary of Energy, and so I'm glad to see h…”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Jigar Shah: Battery storage additions will be tenfold natural gas deployments
“Battery storage will be heralded as the savior of the grid a year from now, and we will deploy 10 times as much battery storage as we deploy natural gas.”
Insight
Shah: Clean energy must act like the dominant industry it is
“It's important for this sector to stop acting like it's alternative. When you're 80% of everything being deployed every year, sometimes 90%, politics is part of this. So are regulations, so are lots of other things. Like, people have to make sure that they und…”
Opinion
Shah: Clean energy companies must stop hiding their DOE loan applications
“People are so afraid of having anyone hate them that they're like, oh, I don't want to mention that we're a, we're an applicant to the loan programs office. I don't want to mention that we're, you know, applying for this grant or whatever else, right? That's n…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2029
Shah: Annual electricity load growth will likely be around 2.5%, not 7%
“I don't think we're going to have seven percent load growth every year. I think it's probably more like two and a half percent, but it's still something that we don't have the tools to deal with right now.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Shah: Traditional utility expansion formula causes 10% annual rate hikes
“When you think about the normal course of business for most utilities is to build more natural gas plants,
Build more transmission and build more distribution.
Today, that formula results in 10% rate increases every year.
That is not workable.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Shah: New nuclear, geothermal, and hybrid storage all cost ~$100/MWh
“And now, with all of the additional incentives, you can build a new nuclear reactor, as long as, you know, get some of the bonus credits, like energy communities, etc., at a hundred dollars a megawatt hour. Guess what else is a hundred dollars a megawatt hour?…”
Insight
Shah: Virtual power plants must be opt-out and fully automated to scale
“One, Everything needs to be opt out. This notion that we need to spend 700 dollars to, like, talk to people and beg them to opt into something is looney tunes. Like, when you hook up something, it's automatically opted into a VPP, and then we should give you a…”
Insight
Shah: Green banks must standardize loan docs and enable securitization
“In order for this to be successful long-term though, they have to figure it out securitization. And that, I think, is the biggest challenge, because a lot of these folks like doing weird stuff, and if you do too much weird stuff, then that loan will sit on you…”