Mar 8, 2023 · 48m · green-blueprint
Are oil & gas majors abandoning clean energy?
Jigar Shah · 21m spoken Stephen Lacey · 11m spoken Katherine Hamilton · 11m spoken Joe Biden · 19s spoken
0:00 / 0:00
gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In this episode of The Carbon Copy, host Stephen Lacey and co-hosts Jigar Shah and Katherine Hamilton analyze why oil and gas supermajors are scaling back climate targets to operate as cash cows, while pure-play developers, federal policy, and technological innovation drive the broader clean energy transition.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 3.8 Guest teaching 4.8 Guest disagreement 2.6 The hosts pushing back 1.6
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 23:50 Jigar shuts down residential hydrogen pipe narrative
Jigar dismisses oil company PR about piping hydrogen into homes for heating, calling it an absurdity that DOE will never support.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 18:28 Lacey presses on oil windfall policy mechanismsLacey directly cites IEA data showing massive oil windfall profits and pushes on whether immediate policy is required to redirect that capital to renewables.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 15:03 Jigar separates press releases from LPO deal truthJigar educates the host by using LPO deal data to demonstrate that oil majors represent less than 20 percent of hydrogen capital despite heavy media buzz.
The host holds their own ▶ 41:08 Lacey cites CPUC rejection of microgridsLacey demonstrates deep domain knowledge of regulatory barriers by citing CPUC's recent formal rejection of Sunnova's microgrid developer application.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Live Event Announcement at Greentown Labs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Segment 1 is an introductory monologue and event promo by host Stephen Lacey, along with archival news clips and framing on oil company profits. Because there is no active guest dialogue, all interaction scores are 0. | |
| Guest Check-ins on Policy and Market Velocity | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | Lacey sets up the discussion on oil supermajors scaling back transition pledges after record profits. Jigar reframes the mainstream narrative, arguing that oil majors cutting R&D proves they are transitioning to low-valuation, mature cash cows rather than growth engines. | |
| Policy Divergence and Clean Technology Synergies | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | Lacey quotes the IEA's four-trillion-dollar windfall figure to question whether policy can direct capital into renewables. Katherine explains regional divergence between Europe's high fuel costs and the US's IRA-driven incentive approach. | |
| Debunking Supermajor Dominance in Clean Hydrogen | 4 | 8 | 6 | 2 | Lacey asks how DOE engages oil majors planning billions in hydrogen investment. Jigar bluntly rejects the premise, explaining that LPO deal flow shows supermajors make up under 20% of capital and don't understand project finance compared to pure-play renewables. | |
| Hydrogen Standards, Economics, and Industrial Decarbonization | 5 | 7 | 5 | 3 | Lacey brings up concerns regarding blue hydrogen and greenwashing fossil fuel infrastructure. Jigar dismisses the color labels as irrelevant to DOE's emissions standards and forcefully refutes the idea of heating homes with hydrogen as an industry fantasy. | |
| Macroeconomic Shifts and American Clean Energy Leadership | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | Lacey prompts reflection on the macroeconomic disruptions from the war in Ukraine. Jigar and Katherine enthusiastically outline the geopolitical flex of American manufacturing, innovation, and export capacity under recent federal legislation. | |
| Critical Minerals Supply Chains and Battery Recycling | 4 | 6 | 2 | 1 | Lacey asks about critical mineral supply chains and LPO's conditional loans for battery recycling. Jigar provides concrete data illustrating how recycling outpaces domestic mining in the near term, while Katherine details European battery passport models. | |
| Grid Modernization and Virtual Power Plants (VPPs) | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | Lacey introduces virtual power plants (VPPs) and California regulatory roadblocks. Jigar forcefully critiques traditional utility planning and transformer shortages, while Katherine details the resistance of state commissions to including distributed energy resources. | |
| Previewing CERAWeek and the Agora Innovation Stage | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | Lacey asks for closing thoughts on CERAWeek. Both guests share optimistic views about the Agora Innovation Stage bridging non-traditional energy startups and legacy energy capital. |
Statements from this episode (24)
Top Five Western Oil Supermajors Lost $76 Billion in 2020
“In 2020, the top five Western oil and gas supermajors, that's Exxon Mobil, BP, Shell, Chevron and Total, saw combined losses of seventy six billion dollars.”
Top Oil Majors Made Nearly $200 Billion in 2022 Profits
“Combined, the top oil majors brought in nearly two hundred billion dollars in profits last year.”
Biden: The World Will Need Oil for at Least Another Decade
“I said, we're going to need oil for at least another decade, and that's going to exceed... And beyond that, we're gonna need it.”
Lacey: Clean Energy Is Only 5% of Global Oil Capex
“And even with windfall profits, clean energy only accounts for five percent of oil company capital expenditures globally.”
Shah: Automakers are eliminating internal combustion engine R&D budgets
“Mercedes-Benz and others have announced that they're basically eliminating all R&D budgets for internal combustion engines, right?”
Shah: Oil majors are cutting R&D to operate as cash cows
“The sign of the long decline is when these large corporations say investing in, in really expensive R&D that takes 10 years to come To real fruition is no longer worth doing is, is really that sign you're looking for, and I think all of the majors, as well as …”
IEA: Global Oil & Gas Sector Income Reached $4T in 2022
“Global oil and gas sector income is set to jump forward to four trillion dollars in twenty-twenty-two, more than twice its five-year average, with the bulk of it going to major oil and gas exporting states.”
Hamilton: Norway Achieved 90% EV Adoption While Expanding Oil Production
“Norway is at 90% EVs. They've done this massive transition, and yet they're one of the biggest oil producers. They're not going to stop producing oil. They're not going to stop selling it. They're going to increase it. They have 50 more years of oil, and yet t…”
Hamilton: European Heat Pump Market Has Grown by 40%
“The heat pump market has gone up 40%. The heat pump, people cannot install them fast enough because of the price of oil and gas over there.”
Shah: US will produce 10 million tons of clean hydrogen by 2030
“So I believe that by 2030, we will have ten million tons of clean hydrogen in this country.”
Shah: Oil and gas represents under 20% of clean tech capital stacks
“I would say they are less than 20% of the total capital that we're seeing going into each one of these sectors, which I don't know that I care about.”
Shah: Solar and wind generated 36% annualized returns since 2007
“Most of us who've been in the solar and wind industry have generated 36% annualized returns every single year since we were in there from 2007.”
Shah: US Solar and Wind Have Not Yet Saved a Gigaton of Carbon
“Even the solar and wind industry in the United States today hasn't saved a gigaton of carbon. Right? For all of the, like, you know, this is amazing, it's fully mature, it has not saved a gigaton of carbon.”
Shah: Almost No Hydrogen Investment in Past Year Came From Oil and Gas
“When you look at the investment that's been made over the last 12 months in hydrogen, almost none of it is from the oil and gas industry.”
Shah: Heating Homes With Piped Hydrogen Will Never Happen
“The notion that we're going to be heating our homes with hydrogen coming through pipes, like, I mean, I think that is, that's never going to happen”
Shah: 12 Additional Clean Energy Sectors Will Commercialize by 2030
“We are putting in motion today because of the bipartisan infrastructure law, chips and science, and the IRA, the ability to make sure that 12 additional sectors will reach full cost effectiveness and commercialization by 2030.”
Shah: US Will Need 500,000 More Tradespeople for Clean Energy Buildout
“We are going to have to hire probably an extra 500,000 tradespeople over the next five to seven years to be able to do that here.”
Shah: Li-Cycle Rochester plant will produce 8,500 tons of lithium carbonate
“Life cycle in Rochester, New York will produce 8500 tons of lithium carbonate once it's fully scaled up. To put that in perspective, the United States as a whole produces 5000 tons per year. It'll be the single, single largest producer of lithium carbonate in …”
Shah: The US is on track to meet its domestic lithium needs
“You know, look, I think lithium, we're clearly on track, whether it's the Salton Sea, or whether it's Nevada, or whether it's, you know, some of the other mines that we've already identified in the processing facilities that the Loan Programs Office will fund.…”
Shah: US Grid Capacity Utilization Peaked in 1979 and Continues Falling
“It is very clear to everybody that in 1979, we hit our peak in terms of capacity utilization of our grid.
Right.
And every single year since then, we have gone down in capacity utilization.”
Shah: US adds two gigawatts of app-controllable devices each month
“But what's different today is that we are now adding two gigawatts a month of devices into our homes and small businesses that are, can be controlled by an app on your phone.”
Shah: Unmanaged electric vehicle charging will break the current grid
“And then the last thing I would say, it is very obvious to everyone that electric vehicles will break the current grid. It is not possible to do what we're currently doing, letting people just charge whenever they want, do whatever they want, whenever they wan…”
Shah: US transformer backlog stems from avoiding VPPs, not actual shortages
“This is why we have a three-year backlog on distribution transformers. It's not because we have a shortage of distribution transformers in this country. It's because everybody wants to fix the problem using 19 eighties approaches instead of virtual power plant…”