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Dr. Sue Natale

Senior Scientist, Woodwell Climate Research Center · 1 appearance on the record.

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scientistacademicwoodwellclimate.org ↗Wikipedia ↗

She investigates the effects of climate change, including permafrost thaw and carbon-climate feedbacks, on northern ecosystems and global climate dynamics. Through the Permafrost Pathways initiative, she collaborates with Arctic Indigenous communities and policymakers to expand permafrost monitoring and guide climate adaptation.

9statements → 9claims → 7claims resolved → 86%fully supported → 4/5average certainty → 1.22/5average debate potential → ≈4.5/5argument clarity, estimated →

6 supported 1 partly supported 0 contradicted 2 not checkable as stated how the 9 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

1 prediction · 8 assertions · every statement was checked. The prediction and assertions are the 9 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 7 are resolved, and 2 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Dr. argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported
Natale: Most climate models omit permafrost or ignore abrupt thaw and wildfires
“Many of the models either don't include permafrost at all. The very few that do don't account for these abrupt ground collapses that are happening. They don't account for the impact of wildfire and permafrost, which can greatly accelerate thaw.”
Dr. Sue Natale Jul 13, 2022 ▶ 12:04 The climate wild card: permafrost

How they sound: not measured why? →

We measure speaking style by listening to the audio itself, and a fair number needs at least 2,000 words from one person on tape we have measured. There is too little of Dr. Sue Natale on measured tape to publish a rate. This says nothing about how they speak.

Everything Dr. Sue Natale said on the Green Blueprint that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Assertion Supported
Natale: Most climate models omit permafrost or ignore abrupt thaw and wildfires
“Many of the models either don't include permafrost at all. The very few that do don't account for these abrupt ground collapses that are happening. They don't account for the impact of wildfire and permafrost, which can greatly accelerate thaw.”
Dr. Sue Natale Jul 13, 2022 ▶ 12:04 The climate wild card: permafrost
Prediction Held up
Natale: Permafrost thaw will reach 30% to 70% by 2100
“There's a, there's an Kind of a range of possibilities for how much permafrost will thaw, say, by 2100, and number of different, based on a number of different models, but the range always stays somewhere between 30 to 70%, something like that, and I think abo…”
Dr. Sue Natale Jul 13, 2022 ▶ 17:44 The climate wild card: permafrost
Assertion Supported
Natale: Permafrost stores 1.5 trillion tons of carbon, double atmospheric levels
“It's about 1.5 trillion tons of carbon. So every tree and every forest on the planet, it's three times more carbon than that that's stored in permafrost. And almost twice as much carbon stored in permafrost than is in the atmosphere.”
Dr. Sue Natale Jul 13, 2022 ▶ 1:19 The climate wild card: permafrost
Assertion Supported
Natale: 15% of Northern Hemisphere Land Area Underlain by Permafrost
“15% of the northern hemisphere land areas underlain by permafrost.”
Dr. Sue Natale Jul 13, 2022 ▶ 3:55 The climate wild card: permafrost
Assertion Partly supported
Natale: Viable Seeds Thousands of Years Old Discovered in Permafrost
“They found seeds from permafrost that are still viable, that are thousands of years old.”
Dr. Sue Natale Jul 13, 2022 ▶ 5:05 The climate wild card: permafrost
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Natale: Arctic Communities First Noticed Permafrost Thaw Through Collapsing Ice Cellars
“People who live on permafrost were, you know, the first ones really noticing what's happening because their ice cellars were, weren't functioning, right? And they were starting to collapse and the food, food was going bad and just, you know, meat that the peop…”
Dr. Sue Natale Jul 13, 2022 ▶ 5:16 The climate wild card: permafrost
Assertion Supported
Natale: The Arctic is warming at least three times faster than global average
“It's, you know, warming at least three times faster than the rest of the planet in the Arctic”
Dr. Sue Natale Jul 13, 2022 ▶ 6:14 The climate wild card: permafrost
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Natale: Arctic residents must now relevel houses multiple times per year
“People who live on permafrost raise their houses every year, To keep them level. And now we're having to raise them multiple times of year.”
Dr. Sue Natale Jul 13, 2022 ▶ 6:57 The climate wild card: permafrost
Assertion Supported
Natale: Arctic emissions monitoring lags far behind lower latitudes with huge Siberian gaps
“We have much more limited monitoring of greenhouse gas emissions and carbon cycling in the Arctic than we do in other areas in lower latitudes in the continuous U.S., and even the work that's done in the Arctic. There are many areas that are gaps, and so much …”
Dr. Sue Natale Jul 13, 2022 ▶ 10:37 The climate wild card: permafrost

Appearances (1)

EpisodeDateSpeaking time
The climate wild card: permafrost Jul 13, 2022 13m
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