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Jul 13, 2022 · 19m · green-blueprint

The climate wild card: permafrost

Dr. Sue Natale · 13m spoken Stephen Lacey · 4m spoken
0:00 / 0:00

gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions

Host Stephen Lacey speaks with Dr. Sue Natale about the massive, undercounted climate risk of thawing Arctic permafrost and explores how scientific research is working to integrate this subterranean wildcard into global climate models and policy.

How this conversation actually went

Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. How this is scored →

The hosts as informed peer 3.3 Guest teaching 4.8 Guest disagreement 0.0 The hosts pushing back 0.0
05100:0010:003:42–8:10 · The hosts as informed peer 3/10 Fieldwork Realities and the Physical Anatomy of Permafrost The host guides the conversation by framing questions around acute community impacts and physical damage. Dr. Natale delivers extensive domain knowledge on fieldwork perils, ice wedges, and structural housing issues in Arctic communities.8:10–12:34 · The hosts as informed peer 3/10 The Biological Mechanisms of Permafrost Carbon Release The host prompts Dr. Natale on why permafrost is overlooked in global climate accounting and asks for updated carbon budget estimates. Dr. Natale thoroughly educates on microbial decomposition, satellite visibility limitations compared to forests, and pan-Arctic monitoring gaps.12:34–15:00 · The hosts as informed peer 4/10 The Permafrost Pathways Project: Science and Policy Integration The host demonstrates specific background knowledge by detailing the newly announced 41 million dollar Permafrost Pathways grant. Dr. Natale breaks down the initiative's core pillars of monitoring, modeling, and direct policy engagement.15:01–18:43 · The hosts as informed peer 3/10 Addressing the Knowledge Deficit Among Lawmakers The host shares personal reflections on climate feedback loops and asks how scientists grapple with policymaker inaction. Dr. Natale provides an insightful breakdown of the 30% versus 70% thaw mitigation scenarios to illustrate actionable optimism.3:42–8:10 · Guest teaching 5/10 Fieldwork Realities and the Physical Anatomy of Permafrost The host guides the conversation by framing questions around acute community impacts and physical damage. Dr. Natale delivers extensive domain knowledge on fieldwork perils, ice wedges, and structural housing issues in Arctic communities.8:10–12:34 · Guest teaching 6/10 The Biological Mechanisms of Permafrost Carbon Release The host prompts Dr. Natale on why permafrost is overlooked in global climate accounting and asks for updated carbon budget estimates. Dr. Natale thoroughly educates on microbial decomposition, satellite visibility limitations compared to forests, and pan-Arctic monitoring gaps.12:34–15:00 · Guest teaching 4/10 The Permafrost Pathways Project: Science and Policy Integration The host demonstrates specific background knowledge by detailing the newly announced 41 million dollar Permafrost Pathways grant. Dr. Natale breaks down the initiative's core pillars of monitoring, modeling, and direct policy engagement.15:01–18:43 · Guest teaching 4/10 Addressing the Knowledge Deficit Among Lawmakers The host shares personal reflections on climate feedback loops and asks how scientists grapple with policymaker inaction. Dr. Natale provides an insightful breakdown of the 30% versus 70% thaw mitigation scenarios to illustrate actionable optimism.3:42–8:10 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Fieldwork Realities and the Physical Anatomy of Permafrost The host guides the conversation by framing questions around acute community impacts and physical damage. Dr. Natale delivers extensive domain knowledge on fieldwork perils, ice wedges, and structural housing issues in Arctic communities.8:10–12:34 · Guest disagreement 0/10 The Biological Mechanisms of Permafrost Carbon Release The host prompts Dr. Natale on why permafrost is overlooked in global climate accounting and asks for updated carbon budget estimates. Dr. Natale thoroughly educates on microbial decomposition, satellite visibility limitations compared to forests, and pan-Arctic monitoring gaps.12:34–15:00 · Guest disagreement 0/10 The Permafrost Pathways Project: Science and Policy Integration The host demonstrates specific background knowledge by detailing the newly announced 41 million dollar Permafrost Pathways grant. Dr. Natale breaks down the initiative's core pillars of monitoring, modeling, and direct policy engagement.15:01–18:43 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Addressing the Knowledge Deficit Among Lawmakers The host shares personal reflections on climate feedback loops and asks how scientists grapple with policymaker inaction. Dr. Natale provides an insightful breakdown of the 30% versus 70% thaw mitigation scenarios to illustrate actionable optimism.3:42–8:10 · The hosts pushing back 0/10 Fieldwork Realities and the Physical Anatomy of Permafrost The host guides the conversation by framing questions around acute community impacts and physical damage. Dr. Natale delivers extensive domain knowledge on fieldwork perils, ice wedges, and structural housing issues in Arctic communities.8:10–12:34 · The hosts pushing back 0/10 The Biological Mechanisms of Permafrost Carbon Release The host prompts Dr. Natale on why permafrost is overlooked in global climate accounting and asks for updated carbon budget estimates. Dr. Natale thoroughly educates on microbial decomposition, satellite visibility limitations compared to forests, and pan-Arctic monitoring gaps.12:34–15:00 · The hosts pushing back 0/10 The Permafrost Pathways Project: Science and Policy Integration The host demonstrates specific background knowledge by detailing the newly announced 41 million dollar Permafrost Pathways grant. Dr. Natale breaks down the initiative's core pillars of monitoring, modeling, and direct policy engagement.15:01–18:43 · The hosts pushing back 0/10 Addressing the Knowledge Deficit Among Lawmakers The host shares personal reflections on climate feedback loops and asks how scientists grapple with policymaker inaction. Dr. Natale provides an insightful breakdown of the 30% versus 70% thaw mitigation scenarios to illustrate actionable optimism.

speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)

0:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%0:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%3:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%3:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%6:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%6:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%9:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%9:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%12:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%12:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%15:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%15:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%18:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%18:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 12:04 Critique of climate models omitting permafrost

In a completely collaborative episode, this represents Dr. Natale's sharpest critique as she forcefully points out that global climate models omit permafrost processes and that climate change is outpacing the science.

 Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 9:08 Challenging why permafrost is overlooked

Lacey pushes on the disconnect between the massive physical risk and why permafrost remains absent from major global climate discussions.

 Biggest teaching moment ▶ 9:17 Why permafrost is invisible to conventional climate accounting

Dr. Natale explains to Lacey that unlike aboveground forests, underground permafrost cannot easily be detected by satellite imagery or standard remote sensing.

 The host holds their own ▶ 12:33 Host articulates the Permafrost Pathways framework

Lacey demonstrates command of the subject by detailing the scope, timeline, and exact $41 million funding structure of the Permafrost Pathways initiative.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
ChapterTopicThe hosts as informed peerGuest teachingGuest disagreementThe hosts pushing backWhy
Fieldwork Realities and the Physical Anatomy of Permafrost 3500 The host guides the conversation by framing questions around acute community impacts and physical damage. Dr. Natale delivers extensive domain knowledge on fieldwork perils, ice wedges, and structural housing issues in Arctic communities.
The Biological Mechanisms of Permafrost Carbon Release 3600 The host prompts Dr. Natale on why permafrost is overlooked in global climate accounting and asks for updated carbon budget estimates. Dr. Natale thoroughly educates on microbial decomposition, satellite visibility limitations compared to forests, and pan-Arctic monitoring gaps.
The Permafrost Pathways Project: Science and Policy Integration 4400 The host demonstrates specific background knowledge by detailing the newly announced 41 million dollar Permafrost Pathways grant. Dr. Natale breaks down the initiative's core pillars of monitoring, modeling, and direct policy engagement.
Addressing the Knowledge Deficit Among Lawmakers 3400 The host shares personal reflections on climate feedback loops and asks how scientists grapple with policymaker inaction. Dr. Natale provides an insightful breakdown of the 30% versus 70% thaw mitigation scenarios to illustrate actionable optimism.

Statements from this episode (9)

Assertion Supported
Natale: Permafrost stores 1.5 trillion tons of carbon, double atmospheric levels
“It's about 1.5 trillion tons of carbon. So every tree and every forest on the planet, it's three times more carbon than that that's stored in permafrost. And almost twice as much carbon stored in permafrost than is in the atmosphere.”
Dr. Sue Natale Jul 13, 2022 ▶ 1:19
Assertion Supported
Natale: 15% of Northern Hemisphere Land Area Underlain by Permafrost
“15% of the northern hemisphere land areas underlain by permafrost.”
Dr. Sue Natale Jul 13, 2022 ▶ 3:55
Assertion Partly supported
Natale: Viable Seeds Thousands of Years Old Discovered in Permafrost
“They found seeds from permafrost that are still viable, that are thousands of years old.”
Dr. Sue Natale Jul 13, 2022 ▶ 5:05
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Natale: Arctic Communities First Noticed Permafrost Thaw Through Collapsing Ice Cellars
“People who live on permafrost were, you know, the first ones really noticing what's happening because their ice cellars were, weren't functioning, right? And they were starting to collapse and the food, food was going bad and just, you know, meat that the peop…”
Dr. Sue Natale Jul 13, 2022 ▶ 5:16
Assertion Supported
Natale: The Arctic is warming at least three times faster than global average
“It's, you know, warming at least three times faster than the rest of the planet in the Arctic”
Dr. Sue Natale Jul 13, 2022 ▶ 6:14
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Natale: Arctic residents must now relevel houses multiple times per year
“People who live on permafrost raise their houses every year, To keep them level. And now we're having to raise them multiple times of year.”
Dr. Sue Natale Jul 13, 2022 ▶ 6:57
Assertion Supported
Natale: Arctic emissions monitoring lags far behind lower latitudes with huge Siberian gaps
“We have much more limited monitoring of greenhouse gas emissions and carbon cycling in the Arctic than we do in other areas in lower latitudes in the continuous U.S., and even the work that's done in the Arctic. There are many areas that are gaps, and so much …”
Dr. Sue Natale Jul 13, 2022 ▶ 10:37
Assertion Supported
Natale: Most climate models omit permafrost or ignore abrupt thaw and wildfires
“Many of the models either don't include permafrost at all. The very few that do don't account for these abrupt ground collapses that are happening. They don't account for the impact of wildfire and permafrost, which can greatly accelerate thaw.”
Dr. Sue Natale Jul 13, 2022 ▶ 12:04
Prediction Held up
Natale: Permafrost thaw will reach 30% to 70% by 2100
“There's a, there's an Kind of a range of possibilities for how much permafrost will thaw, say, by 2100, and number of different, based on a number of different models, but the range always stays somewhere between 30 to 70%, something like that, and I think abo…”
Dr. Sue Natale Jul 13, 2022 ▶ 17:44
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