Dr. Sue Natale explains why scientific estimates of permafrost carbon release remain uncertain compared to emissions from temperate regions.
Assertion Supported
Natale: Most climate models omit permafrost or ignore abrupt thaw and wildfires
“Many of the models either don't include permafrost at all. The very few that do don't account for these abrupt ground collapses that are happening. They don't account for the impact of wildfire and permafrost, which can greatly accelerate thaw.”
Prediction Held up
Natale: Permafrost thaw will reach 30% to 70% by 2100
“There's a, there's an Kind of a range of possibilities for how much permafrost will thaw, say, by 2100, and number of different, based on a number of different models, but the range always stays somewhere between 30 to 70%, something like that, and I think abo…”
Assertion Supported
Natale: Permafrost stores 1.5 trillion tons of carbon, double atmospheric levels
“It's about 1.5 trillion tons of carbon. So every tree and every forest on the planet, it's three times more carbon than that that's stored in permafrost. And almost twice as much carbon stored in permafrost than is in the atmosphere.”
Assertion Supported
Natale: 15% of Northern Hemisphere Land Area Underlain by Permafrost
“15% of the northern hemisphere land areas underlain by permafrost.”
Assertion Partly supported
Natale: Viable Seeds Thousands of Years Old Discovered in Permafrost
“They found seeds from permafrost that are still viable, that are thousands of years old.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Natale: Arctic Communities First Noticed Permafrost Thaw Through Collapsing Ice Cellars
“People who live on permafrost were, you know, the first ones really noticing what's happening because their ice cellars were, weren't functioning, right? And they were starting to collapse and the food, food was going bad and just, you know, meat that the peop…”