McKinsey Partner Anna Orthofer shares projected findings on the pace of cost declines and commercial maturity across key climate technologies.
Assertion Supported
Orthofer: Only 10% of net-zero abatement potential is fully mature today
“And when we do that, we actually find that only about 10% of the abatement potential that, that we need to get to net zero is in this in global deployment or a sort of fully mature category which is a lot less, I think, than we would have hoped.”
Insight
Orthofer: Western observers overestimate global commercial viability of climate tech
“And I think we tend to overestimate a little bit the share of technologies that are really fully viable because we do tend to be based in, in, in geographies where we have a lot of support systems. And because we tend to work with companies who are early adopt…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2038
Orthofer: Green hydrogen cost parity delayed 5 to 8 years past 2030
“If I look back at our forecast from 20 20, for when we would achieve cost parity between green hydrogen and grey hydrogen, we said this would be by the end of this decade. I think by now we've moved that out by five to eight years, depending on geography, just…”
Assertion Supported
Orthofer: Forecasts consistently overestimate fusion, hydrogen, and CCS progress
“So there's some sets of technologies that we consistently overestimated, and those are the technologies that are always just around the corner, but somehow they haven't panned out to the extent that we predicted. And those are things like nuclear fusion or thi…”
Assertion Supported
Orthofer: Forecasters consistently underestimate solar and battery deployment speed
“I think the second thing is indeed to what extent we keep underestimating the speed at which solar and batteries to some extent also wind, but to a less extent have achieved cost savings and actually are deployed.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Orthofer: Electrolyzer stack costs could fall up to 70% by 2034
“Where the electrolyzer stack can represent about currently about half of the costs that can come down a lot, right? And we see 50, 60, 70% cost down Potential over the next decade through many, through better manufacturing, through efficiency improvements and …”