McKinsey partner Anna Orthofer explains to Stephen Lacey why climate technologies that appear commercially viable in Europe or the US are not yet viable across unsubsidized global markets.
Assertion Supported
Orthofer: Only 10% of net-zero abatement potential is fully mature today
“And when we do that, we actually find that only about 10% of the abatement potential that, that we need to get to net zero is in this in global deployment or a sort of fully mature category which is a lot less, I think, than we would have hoped.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2039
Orthofer: Max 30% of abatement needs commercially viable by late 2030s
“Despite sort of huge cost down historically and projected, we will not get to more than 20 or 30% of all abatement needs being sort of fully in the money or fully sort of commercially mature by the end of the 20 thirties, which I guess is a rather, was for me …”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2038
Orthofer: Green hydrogen cost parity delayed 5 to 8 years past 2030
“If I look back at our forecast from 20 20, for when we would achieve cost parity between green hydrogen and grey hydrogen, we said this would be by the end of this decade. I think by now we've moved that out by five to eight years, depending on geography, just…”
Assertion Supported
Orthofer: Forecasts consistently overestimate fusion, hydrogen, and CCS progress
“So there's some sets of technologies that we consistently overestimated, and those are the technologies that are always just around the corner, but somehow they haven't panned out to the extent that we predicted. And those are things like nuclear fusion or thi…”
Assertion Supported
Orthofer: Forecasters consistently underestimate solar and battery deployment speed
“I think the second thing is indeed to what extent we keep underestimating the speed at which solar and batteries to some extent also wind, but to a less extent have achieved cost savings and actually are deployed.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Orthofer: Electrolyzer stack costs could fall up to 70% by 2034
“Where the electrolyzer stack can represent about currently about half of the costs that can come down a lot, right? And we see 50, 60, 70% cost down Potential over the next decade through many, through better manufacturing, through efficiency improvements and …”