The Calls

⏳ Open 📼 The record

Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.

1open predictions
0due for another look
1closed calls →
3395days to next prediction date
Everyone Ramez Naam (5)Dacia Leone (5)Stephen Lacey (4)Rick Needham (4)John O'Donnell (4)Jigar Shah (4)Tadeu Carneiro (3)Steve Cotton (3)Saritha Paruri (3)Katherine Hamilton (3)Yayoi Sekine (2)Will Hazlip (2)
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Next up (1)

3395 days left 2035-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2035
US industrial emissions will surpass power and transport by 2035
“The industrial sector is set to overtake power generation and transportation as the biggest source of planet warming emissions in the U.S. By twenty-thirty-five.”
Stephen Lacey Oct 26, 2023 ▶ 1:26 Tackling the tough stuff: steel, cement, and chemicals

Closed calls (1) the full record →

Prediction Held up
Lacey: Solar and wind will constitute ~92% of 2030 renewable additions
“So solar is probably going to make up about two-thirds of the target here, and solar is just the least cost resource in many areas of the world, so it will continue to dominate. Solar and wind together will make up about 92% of this tripling target, but solar …”
Stephen Lacey Nov 29, 2023 ▶ 14:37 How to triple renewables by 2030
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