The Calls

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Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.

2open predictions

0due for another look

1closed calls →

1569days to next prediction date

Everyone Ramez Naam (5)Dacia Leone (5)Stephen Lacey (4)Rick Needham (4)John O'Donnell (4)Jigar Shah (4)Tadeu Carneiro (3)Steve Cotton (3)Saritha Paruri (3)Katherine Hamilton (3)Yayoi Sekine (2)Will Hazlip (2)

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today 2026202720282029 OctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep 2 calls beyond 2029 →

Next up (2)

1569 days left 2030-12-31

Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030

Naam: Total fossil fuel use and emissions will peak by 2030

“And I think we'll have peak total fossil fuels and peak emissions sometime later in this decade, ah, towards 2030.”

Ramez Naam Jul 20, 2023 ▶ 21:02 What’s the next big trend in clean energy?

2300 days left 2032-12-31

Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2032

Naam: IRA spending will reach trillions due to uncapped subsidies

“It's not four and fifty billion dollars of federal spending a year. It's like trillions. Because the IRA is not a pool of money. It's a per unit subsidy. And forecasters always do what? On unit forecasts, they always underestimate it, right? So the actual size…”

Ramez Naam Jul 20, 2023 ▶ 14:42 What’s the next big trend in clean energy?

Closed calls (1) the full record →

Prediction Held up

Naam: Odds of limiting global warming to 1.5°C are minuscule

“But the bad news is we have missed 1.5 degrees C, and I don't know how to say this anymore clearly, because there are people that will tell you that we might hit it. The odds of that are minuscule.”

Ramez Naam Jul 20, 2023 ▶ 37:56 What’s the next big trend in clean energy?

The Calls

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Closed calls (1) the full record →

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