Yayoi Sekine of BloombergNEF assesses the technological challenges and development timelines facing solid-state battery startups such as QuantumScape.
Prediction Partly held up
BNEF's Sekine: Average battery prices will fall 6% to $133/kWh in 2024
“Our, like our expectation at BNF is that prices will drop this year. So drop about six percent. So we averaged last year, just as a pricing point, we averaged at about 139 dollars per kilowatt hour on a volume average basis. So that includes all segments that …”
Assertion Supported
Sekine: Global battery manufacturing capacity reached 3x demand in 2023
“When you have three X
Battery like manufacturing capacity relative to total demands in the global market, which is where we are where we were in 2023, you kind of expect there to be some shakeup because not every company is able to ramp up a gigawatt hour fact…”
Prediction Held up
Sekine: Global battery manufacturing overcapacity will worsen through 2025
“If we are to simply look at the overall capacity that's expected to come online based on company announcements between now and 2025, that factor that I mentioned three X of battery capacity relative to demand today or in 2023, that actually becomes worse over …”
Assertion Contradicted
Sekine: $100B+ committed to US EV and battery supply chains in 2023
“Even though last year we saw a record number of, like, commitments towards clean energy supply chains in general in the US,
Most of which were for EVs EVs and batteries, so about more than a hundred billion dollars committed towards EV and batteries supply cha…”
Assertion Supported
Sekine: Most seasonal energy storage investment is in hydrogen
“The very, very long, long duration energy storage, the stuff that we might call seasonal energy storage. I think the more, the activity that we see more more investment around that is actually around hydrogen and that, that economy.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Sekine: Gigawatt-hour scale battery projects will likely become standard by 2030
“I think the fully formed ones are probably around gigawatt hour scale projects. We see a couple of examples of those today, but I think expecting them to be the norm of how company, like a lot of large scale projects might go forward. I imagine that's going to…”