Feb 8, 2024 · 32m · green-blueprint
Pricing and tech trends shaping the global battery storage market
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
Host Stephen Lacey and BNEF's Yayoi Sekine examine the macroeconomic trends, pricing deflation, manufacturing oversupply, regional policies, and emerging battery chemistries reshaping the global energy storage landscape toward 2030.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 4.1 Guest teaching 1.9 Guest disagreement 0.0 The hosts pushing back 0.0
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 4:32 Sekine reframes the EV demand narrative
Sekine gently pushes back against popular perceptions of an EV slump, clarifying that EV sales set records even if growth fell short of aggressive industry projections.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 12:41 Lacey queries IRA market vulnerabilityLacey challenges the assumption that IRA incentives will entirely protect US domestic manufacturing from a severe market shakeout.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 20:30 Sekine clarifies regional LDES definitionsSekine educates listeners on how long-duration thresholds diverge internationally, contrasting China's 4-hour rule, BNEF's 6-hour benchmark, and DOE's 10-hour standard.
The host holds their own ▶ 7:59 Lacey frames battery dynamics using solar historyLacey draws direct parallels between current battery manufacturing dynamics and the historic consolidation of global solar cell manufacturers.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tracking the Meteoric Rise of Global Battery Storage | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | Lacey demonstrates strong industry knowledge in the intro, quoting historical capacity figures from 2016 through projected 2030 terawatt-hour benchmarks. Sekine engages collaboratively, explaining how forecasting models continually adapt to sudden Chinese deployment surges. | |
| Battery Cost Deflation and Forecasting Near-Term Price Trajectories | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | Lacey prompts Sekine to break down near-term cost deflation and its practical implications for project developers and automakers. Sekine provides detailed methodology on how BNEF tracks metal prices to forecast battery pack price drops. | |
| Manufacturing Oversupply, Industry Shakeout, and Policy Incentives | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | Lacey draws an informed historical parallel to the previous decade's solar manufacturing shakeout and questions IRA incentive impacts. Sekine validates the analogy, outlining the mechanics of operating gigafactories amidst three-to-one capacity-to-demand imbalances. | |
| Regional Grid Storage Trends Across the US, China, and Europe | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | Lacey methodically guides the regional comparison between the US, China, and Europe. Sekine explains regional market drivers, highlighting provincial renewable integration mandates in China and residential subsidy schemes in Europe. | |
| Long Duration Energy Storage Definitions and Grid Applications | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | Lacey asks about durations and grid use cases for long duration energy storage. Sekine educates on how definitions differ across institutions like the DOE, China, and BNEF, and distinguishes diurnal cycling from seasonal hydrogen storage. | |
| Electric Vehicle Chemistry Shifts and Advanced Battery Technologies | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | Lacey and Sekine discuss chemistries like LFP, cell-to-pack integration, silicon-doped anodes, and solid-state timelines. Lacey interjects with an astute observation about US consumer demand for heavy, long-range vehicles. | |
| Strategic Industry Storylines and Technological Horizons Toward 2030 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | Lacey closes by asking for 2030 horizon storylines. Sekine outlines the rise of gigawatt-hour scale projects, sodium-ion chemistries, and renewable co-location in a concise, forward-looking summary. |
Statements from this episode (12)
Sekine: Global battery cell capacity grew ~40% to 2.6 TWh in 2023
“In the end of twenty-twenty-three, we have about 2.6 terawatt hours of commission capacity confirmed globally. We haven't tallied out tallied up all the capacity just yet, but it's likely to be more than three terawatt hours in terms of total lithium-ion batte…”
BNEF's Sekine: Average battery prices will fall 6% to $133/kWh in 2024
“Our, like our expectation at BNF is that prices will drop this year. So drop about six percent. So we averaged last year, just as a pricing point, we averaged at about 139 dollars per kilowatt hour on a volume average basis. So that includes all segments that …”
Sekine: Battery racks comprise 50% to 60% of turnkey stationary storage costs
“In the stationary storage space the battery racks are the biggest portion of the storage system costs can range between 50 to 60% of a total turnkey energy storage system.”
Sekine: Global battery manufacturing capacity reached 3x demand in 2023
“When you have three X
Battery like manufacturing capacity relative to total demands in the global market, which is where we are where we were in 2023, you kind of expect there to be some shakeup because not every company is able to ramp up a gigawatt hour fact…”
Sekine: Global battery manufacturing overcapacity will worsen through 2025
“If we are to simply look at the overall capacity that's expected to come online based on company announcements between now and 2025, that factor that I mentioned three X of battery capacity relative to demand today or in 2023, that actually becomes worse over …”
Sekine: $100B+ committed to US EV and battery supply chains in 2023
“Even though last year we saw a record number of, like, commitments towards clean energy supply chains in general in the US,
Most of which were for EVs EVs and batteries, so about more than a hundred billion dollars committed towards EV and batteries supply cha…”
Sekine: US accounted for ~30% of 2023 global battery deployments
“So in the case of the US, which is about 30% of the total market in terms of deployments in 2023 on a gigawatt hour terms.”
Sekine: China drove roughly 45% of global energy storage in 2023
“So it represents about 45% of the total global market in gigawatt hour terms. In gigawatt terms, it's actually higher. It's almost half the global market.”
Sekine: Over 20 Chinese provinces mandate storage on new renewables
“So essentially in China, about like more than 20, I want to say 26 provinces in China have mandates for if you want to build a new solar project or a new wind project, you need to attach batteries to it.”
Sekine: Most seasonal energy storage investment is in hydrogen
“The very, very long, long duration energy storage, the stuff that we might call seasonal energy storage. I think the more, the activity that we see more more investment around that is actually around hydrogen and that, that economy.”
BNEF: Mass commercialization of solid-state batteries expected post-2030
“Our view is in terms of mass commercialization, that's probably, like, around, like, post- twenty-thirty, with a lot of investment actually going into that now.”
Sekine: Gigawatt-hour scale battery projects will likely become standard by 2030
“I think the fully formed ones are probably around gigawatt hour scale projects. We see a couple of examples of those today, but I think expecting them to be the norm of how company, like a lot of large scale projects might go forward. I imagine that's going to…”