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Amory Lovins

Co-founder & Chairman Emeritus, RMI · 1 appearance on the record.

computed by AI from the episodes · how this works → · full disclaimer →

founderscientistanalystauthoracademic@AmoryLovins ↗rmi.org/people/amory-lovins ↗Wikipedia ↗

Amory Lovins is an energy efficiency and integrative design pioneer who introduced the soft energy path and negawatt concepts. He has advised governments and corporations across more than 70 countries and authored over 30 books, including Natural Capitalism and Reinventing Fire.

12statements → 9claims → 7claims resolved → 14%fully supported → 3.83/5average certainty → 2.75/5average debate potential → ≈4.5/5argument clarity, estimated → 1said about them ↓

1 supported 3 partly supported 3 contradicted 2 not checkable as stated how the 9 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

3 predictions · 6 assertions · 3 insights · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 9 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 7 are resolved, and 2 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Amory argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported
Lovins: New Renewables Beat Existing Thermal Plant Operating Costs Globally
“And now, in ninety-odd percent of the world, it's cheaper to build new solar and wind power than to build a fossil-fueled or nuclear power plant, and in upwards of half the world, it's cheaper than just running those thermal plants, even if building them costs…”
Amory Lovins Apr 13, 2022 ▶ 8:18 The ‘profound change’ from today’s energy crisis

Their most notable contradicted claim

Assertion Contradicted
Lovins: Global peak fossil fuel use almost certainly occurred in 2019
“The result is that peak fossil fuel almost certainly occurred in 2019, globally.”
Amory Lovins Apr 13, 2022 ▶ 11:16 The ‘profound change’ from today’s energy crisis

Expressed certainty vs assessment result

none yet certainty 1
none yet certainty 2
0% certainty 3
42% certainty 4
none yet certainty 5

weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet

How they sound: not measured why? →

We measure speaking style by listening to the audio itself, and a fair number needs at least 2,000 words from one person on tape we have measured. There is too little of Amory Lovins on measured tape to publish a rate. This says nothing about how they speak.

Everything Amory Lovins said on the Green Blueprint that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Assertion Supported
Lovins: New Renewables Beat Existing Thermal Plant Operating Costs Globally
“And now, in ninety-odd percent of the world, it's cheaper to build new solar and wind power than to build a fossil-fueled or nuclear power plant, and in upwards of half the world, it's cheaper than just running those thermal plants, even if building them costs…”
Amory Lovins Apr 13, 2022 ▶ 8:18 The ‘profound change’ from today’s energy crisis
Assertion Contradicted
Lovins: Global peak fossil fuel use almost certainly occurred in 2019
“The result is that peak fossil fuel almost certainly occurred in 2019, globally.”
Amory Lovins Apr 13, 2022 ▶ 11:16 The ‘profound change’ from today’s energy crisis
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lovins: Russia's war will push global fossil fuel use into steep decline
“Putin's war really puts the last nails in that coffin, turning what was usually forecast as a bumpy plateau of fossil fuel use for most of the rest of this decade into a steep decline.”
Amory Lovins Apr 13, 2022 ▶ 11:27 The ‘profound change’ from today’s energy crisis
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lovins: European Purchases Of Russian Natural Gas Will Disappear By 2023
“It now looks like the purchases of Russian gas will be cut by two-thirds this year alone, and probably be gone by Next summer, at latest, next autumn”
Amory Lovins Apr 13, 2022 ▶ 14:32 The ‘profound change’ from today’s energy crisis
Assertion Partly supported
Lovins: Pipe friction optimization can save one-fifth of world electricity
“You have this order of magnitude energy saving sufficient to save about a fifth of the world's electricity or half the coal-fired electricity, and you recover your investment in typically under a year fixing old buildings and factories or instantly in new ones…”
Amory Lovins Apr 13, 2022 ▶ 19:04 The ‘profound change’ from today’s energy crisis
Insight
Lovins: Omitting Mechanical Heating Systems Makes Passive Solar Cheaper Overall
“But this is a passive solar banana farm because we don't have a heating system, and it's cheaper to build that way because you save more construction costs leaving out the heating system than you pay extra. For the efficiency techniques that got rid of the hea…”
Amory Lovins Apr 13, 2022 ▶ 7:01 The ‘profound change’ from today’s energy crisis
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lovins: Energy Efficiency and Demand Flexibility Resources Are 3x Larger Than Estimated
“The big surprise for many is that the efficiency resource and what you might call flexi-watts, using electricity timely in a way that doesn't inconvenience the user, those resources are about three times bigger than had been thought.”
Amory Lovins Apr 13, 2022 ▶ 15:14 The ‘profound change’ from today’s energy crisis
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lovins: At least half the global energy transition will come from efficiency
“I would expect, ah, probably half, maybe more, of the energy security, climate, health, and economic solution to our energy problems It's gonna come from efficient use, the rest from clean supply.”
Amory Lovins Apr 13, 2022 ▶ 16:31 The ‘profound change’ from today’s energy crisis
Assertion Partly supported
Lovins: Low-friction pipe design is absent from engineering textbooks and climate models
“And yet this is, this method is not yet in any Government study, industry forecast, climate model, standard engineering textbook. Why not? Because it's not a technology, which is what most policymakers look for. It's a design method”
Amory Lovins Apr 13, 2022 ▶ 19:22 The ‘profound change’ from today’s energy crisis
Assertion Partly supported
Lovins: Energy Used Per Dollar Of Real GDP Dropped 61% Since 1982
“Well, since then, we've actually cut the energy used to make a dollar of real GDP by 61%, and that barely scratches the surface of how much efficiency is available and worth buying.”
Amory Lovins Apr 13, 2022 ▶ 7:49 The ‘profound change’ from today’s energy crisis
Insight
Lovins: Commercial Boilers Reduce Heat Pump Installation Bottlenecks Over Single-Family Retrofits
“You will also relieve the installation bottlenecks not having enough skilled installers to put a bunch of heat pumps in quickly if you focus first on apartment houses, commercial buildings, the things that have big furnaces and boilers burning a lot of Russian…”
Amory Lovins Apr 13, 2022 ▶ 21:21 The ‘profound change’ from today’s energy crisis
Insight
Lovins: European LNG competition incentivizes Asia to conserve energy
“When Europe gets in a bidding war with Asia for cargoes of LNG in the short run, that means that Japan and China and so on see the same price as in Europe. So they are equally incentivized to save oil, gas, gas-fired electricity.”
Amory Lovins Apr 13, 2022 ▶ 23:48 The ‘profound change’ from today’s energy crisis

The other half of the tape: Amory Lovins's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 1 time in 1 episode on the Green Blueprint. every mention, with the transcript →

Who brings them up most Stephen Lacey 1

Every mention by year

tap a year for its mentions
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0112024episodes it came up in
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2024 1 mention in 1 episode

Appearances (1)

EpisodeDateSpeaking time
The ‘profound change’ from today’s energy crisis Apr 13, 2022 13m
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