Assertion Supported
Boyle: Over 80% of US Coal Plants Cost 30% More Than Renewables
“You know, some coal plants are kind of close at the margin to the cost of new renewables, but a lot of the coal plants, more than 80%, are at least 30% more expensive to operate on a going-forward basis than the new renewables.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Boyle: Renewables sector will stop talking about inflation in a couple years
“When it comes to production, I tend to think that we're not going to be talking a ton about inflation in the renewable sector in a couple of years, and like I said before, the value of these projects is, is there in spades.”
Assertion Supported
China to add 150 GW solar in 2023, 1 TW by 2026
“China in particular is adding clean energy at an absolutely mind-boggling pace. They're expected to add a 150 gigawatts of solar in twenty-twenty-three. That's roughly five times what the U.S. Is projected to add, and they're projected to top a terawatt of tot…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Boyle: Coal demand will drop faster than IEA projects due to China
“The sheer investment happening in China is enough to make me bullish that, at least when it comes to coal, we're likely to see a steeper drop off than the IEA expects.”
Assertion Supported
Boyle: Over 99% of US Coal Plants Cost More Than New Renewables
“99, or over 99% of coal-fired power plants are more expensive on a going-forward cost, basically, than new renewables.”
Assertion Supported
Boyle: Coal Replacement Savings Can Fund 137 GW of Battery Storage
“There's enough savings in this equation to pay for a 137 gigawatts, which is about 60% of the nameplate coal fleet capacity.”
Insight
Boyle: 'Used and useful' regulation penalizes utilities for early coal retirements
“That's profit that's built into shareholder expectations. Now you're asking them to shut that down. That creates a lot of uncertainty. Is the regulator going to continue allowing me to earn on an asset that's no longer operating? Like the regulatory standard i…”
Assertion Supported
Grid operators blocked Ameren from retiring its Rush Island coal plant
“Now contrast that with the Rush Island plant in the Ameren service territory. So that power plant Ameren decided they wanted to retire it in September of last year, partially due to the expense of adding Pollution controls to comply with EPA regulations, and t…”
Insight
Boyle: Reusing retired coal interconnection rights fast-tracks new renewable energy projects
“One of the things we wanted to highlight with this report, again, with the local renewables, is you can potentially reuse the interconnection rights that utilities have at these coal plants and transfer them to new renewables that can get ahead of the queue an…”
Assertion Supported
Boyle: Clean Energy O&M Jobs Fall Far Short of Coal Plant Jobs
“The renewable projects, they bring a lot of short-term employment opportunities associated with construction, but the long-term operation and maintenance jobs that come with new clean energy projects don't really come close to the amount of jobs that are suppo…”
Assertion Partly supported
Boyle: Utility-scale renewable PPA prices rose only ~10% in early 2023
“In, in the first half of 2023, average utility PPA prices didn't budge much in the utility scale sector, about 10% on average.”
Assertion Supported
Corporate renewable PPA prices jumped up to 50% since 2021
“Corporate purchases in the level 10 database rose significantly, up as much as 50% in some markets since 2021.”
Assertion Supported
A 300 bps interest rate cut reduces solar LCOE by 20%
“We found, for example, if you reduce interest rates, 300 basis points from seven percent today to four percent, you can reduce the levelized cost of a typical utility scale solar plant by about 20%, or about six dollars per megawatt hour.”
Assertion Supported
Texas is poised to surpass California in utility-scale solar deployment
“You can look at what renewables are doing in Texas, which is arguably the most free electricity market in the country and they're adding so much solar that they're about to or perhaps even have passed California in terms of utility scale solar deployment with …”
Assertion Supported
Boyle: Clean energy investment now exceeds fossil spending by widening margin
“In the IEA's report, you can see how in the last few years, the spending, And the investment in clean energy technologies is starting to exceed fossil investment by a widening margin.”
Assertion Supported
Boyle: New renewable projects in former coal communities are highly cost-effective
“Some of the most cost-effective projects now are right in those same communities that are seeing transition away from coal as a potentially detrimental economic impact”
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2033
Boyle: Inflation Reduction Act incentives guarantee renewable cost advantages through 2033
“You know, I don't know where things are gonna go, but I think the fact that the Inflation Reduction Act incentives are durable for the next 10 years mean that the trend we've observed is, is not going anywhere fast.”
Opinion
Boyle is skeptical of using rail battery storage for grid response
“Potentially A way to move storage from one place to another and provide emergency demand response. That concept I'm not totally bought in on, but who knows? Maybe we'll be moving batteries on trains and using it for the grid.”
Assertion Supported
Boyle: Only One US Coal Plant in Wyoming Is Cheaper Than Renewables
“Yes, it's a coal plant in Wyoming, and the margins are quite small but it's one of the newest plants and most efficient as well.”
Assertion Supported
Boyle: New grid energy projects face four-to-five-year interconnection queue delays
“Projects are waiting four to five years, maybe longer if they're getting into the queue now.”
