Feb 22, 2023 · 23m · green-blueprint
Stunning new data on coal vs renewables
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
Host Stephen Lacey and Energy Innovation's Michael Boyle discuss research showing that 99% of US coal plants are now more expensive to run than building new renewables, examining the financial, regulatory, and grid strategies needed to accelerate coal retirements.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 6.0 Guest teaching 5.7 Guest disagreement 0.4 The hosts pushing back 1.0
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 20:15 Confronting allegations of misleading analysis
Boyle describes the strongest friction he encounters, acknowledging utility stakeholders who accuse his team of hiding reliability constraints behind simple cost headlines.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 8:00 Pressing on utility inactionLacey directly challenges the core paradox, pressing Boyle to explain why utilities refuse to retire uneconomic plants if the economics are so overwhelmingly favorable.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 6:38 Financing battery storage from coal cost headroomBoyle educates the audience on the mathematics of replacement savings, proving that cost margins can fully fund storage capacity up to 60 percent of the entire coal fleet.
The host holds their own ▶ 14:02 Demonstrating command of coal debt data and IRA programsLacey demonstrates deep sector expertise by citing the specific 176 billion dollar debt overhang across legacy coal plants and referencing federal loan office solutions.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Coal Decline and the 2022 Cost Crossover | 6 | 6 | 0 | 1 | Host Stephen Lacey frames the historical trajectory of coal generation and prompts Boyle on the escalating percentage of uneconomic coal plants. Boyle provides specific data points from the latest Energy Innovation report showing 99% of plants are costlier than new renewables. | |
| Inflation Reduction Act Incentives and Renewable Cost Dynamics | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | Lacey demonstrates familiarity with Inflation Reduction Act provisions, including 10-year tax credit extensions and energy community bonuses. Boyle explains how siting renewables locally near retiring coal assets maximizes tax credits and economic competitiveness. | |
| Financing Battery Storage with Coal Replacement Savings | 6 | 6 | 0 | 1 | Lacey questions why utilities persist in running coal despite the cost crossover, highlighting business model friction. Boyle details how replacement cost headroom can fund four-hour battery storage and explains the regulatory 'used and useful' standard keeping legacy assets alive. | |
| Overcoming Grid Reliability Obstacles and Interconnection Backlogs | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | Lacey brings up two major hurdles: grid reliability concerns and clogged interconnection queues. Boyle breaks down contrasting utility case studies (North Valmy vs. Rush Island) and explains how reusing existing coal interconnection rights circumvents queue delays. | |
| Financial Solutions: Securitization and Federal Loan Programs | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | Lacey cites the exact 176 billion dollar debt burden sitting on coal assets and mentions the IRA loan programs. Boyle explains state-level securitization mechanisms alongside the DOE Loan Programs Office financing tools under Jigar Shah. | |
| Community Impacts, Job Shifts, and Local Tax Bases | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | Lacey raises community transition worries and notes the potential 590 billion dollar local investment opportunity. Boyle candidly distinguishes between short-term construction jobs and fewer long-term operations roles while stressing municipal tax base preservation. | |
| Utility Industry Reactions and Post-Coal Grid Outlook | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | Lacey asks how regulatory and utility officials at NARUC respond to the headline report findings. Boyle describes the spectrum of pushback, ranging from accusations of hiding reliability issues to genuine collaborative planning. |
Statements from this episode (13)
Lacey: US Renewables and Hydro Generated More Electricity Than Coal in 2022
“In twenty-twenty-two, wind, solar, and hydro collectively generated more electricity than the nation's coal plants.”
Boyle: Over 99% of US Coal Plants Cost More Than New Renewables
“99, or over 99% of coal-fired power plants are more expensive on a going-forward cost, basically, than new renewables.”
Boyle: Only One US Coal Plant in Wyoming Is Cheaper Than Renewables
“Yes, it's a coal plant in Wyoming, and the margins are quite small but it's one of the newest plants and most efficient as well.”
Boyle: New renewable projects in former coal communities are highly cost-effective
“Some of the most cost-effective projects now are right in those same communities that are seeing transition away from coal as a potentially detrimental economic impact”
Boyle: Over 80% of US Coal Plants Cost 30% More Than Renewables
“You know, some coal plants are kind of close at the margin to the cost of new renewables, but a lot of the coal plants, more than 80%, are at least 30% more expensive to operate on a going-forward basis than the new renewables.”
Boyle: Coal Replacement Savings Can Fund 137 GW of Battery Storage
“There's enough savings in this equation to pay for a 137 gigawatts, which is about 60% of the nameplate coal fleet capacity.”
Boyle: 'Used and useful' regulation penalizes utilities for early coal retirements
“That's profit that's built into shareholder expectations. Now you're asking them to shut that down. That creates a lot of uncertainty. Is the regulator going to continue allowing me to earn on an asset that's no longer operating? Like the regulatory standard i…”
Grid operators blocked Ameren from retiring its Rush Island coal plant
“Now contrast that with the Rush Island plant in the Ameren service territory. So that power plant Ameren decided they wanted to retire it in September of last year, partially due to the expense of adding Pollution controls to comply with EPA regulations, and t…”
Boyle: New grid energy projects face four-to-five-year interconnection queue delays
“Projects are waiting four to five years, maybe longer if they're getting into the queue now.”
Boyle: Reusing retired coal interconnection rights fast-tracks new renewable energy projects
“One of the things we wanted to highlight with this report, again, with the local renewables, is you can potentially reuse the interconnection rights that utilities have at these coal plants and transfer them to new renewables that can get ahead of the queue an…”
Lacey: US coal plants hold around $176B in outstanding debt
“Collectively, these coal plants hold about a hundred and seventy six billion dollars in debt, and there are a lot of efforts to figure out how to, what to do with this debt, and the federal government has created some programs in the Inflation Reduction Act to…”
Boyle: Clean Energy O&M Jobs Fall Far Short of Coal Plant Jobs
“The renewable projects, they bring a lot of short-term employment opportunities associated with construction, but the long-term operation and maintenance jobs that come with new clean energy projects don't really come close to the amount of jobs that are suppo…”
Boyle: Inflation Reduction Act incentives guarantee renewable cost advantages through 2033
“You know, I don't know where things are gonna go, but I think the fact that the Inflation Reduction Act incentives are durable for the next 10 years mean that the trend we've observed is, is not going anywhere fast.”