Nov 3, 2023 · 51m · green-blueprint
Inflation plagues clean energy. How bad is it?
Stephen Lacey · 15m spoken Michael Boyle · 15m spoken Katherine Hamilton · 9m spoken Maria Gallucci · 6m spoken
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In this episode of 'The Carbon Copy,' host Stephen Lacey and an expert panel examine how inflation, interest rate hikes, and supply chain bottlenecks are straining clean energy projects—especially offshore wind—alongside an in-depth analysis of the IEA's forecast that global fossil fuel demand will peak before 2030.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 4.4 Guest teaching 4.1 Guest disagreement 0.3 The hosts pushing back 0.0
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 26:40 Pushing back on the renewable unprofitability narrative
Boyle firmly rejects the framing that inflation makes renewables unviable, pointing to record merchant solar deployment in Texas without subsidies or mandates.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 39:42 Host pushes panel for pessimistic takeawaysLacey steers the discussion away from purely optimistic talking points, demanding the panelists provide grounded cautionary assessments of the climate gap.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 18:50 Quantifying interest rate sensitivity on solar LCOEBoyle delivers precise modeling data demonstrating that a 300 basis point rate reduction cuts levelized solar costs by 20% ($6/MWh).
The host holds their own ▶ 46:40 Host outlines frontier technology solutions in offshore windLacey demonstrates detailed domain expertise regarding digital twins for floating foundations and heavy-lift drones being deployed by Orsted.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latitude Media and Canary Media Newsletter Promotion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | The segment consists of promotional announcements for Latitude and Canary Media newsletters followed by casual, lighthearted banter about personal inflation costs like beer, eggs, and candy. | |
| Episode Roadmap: Clean Energy Inflation and Peak Fossil Fuels | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | Host Stephen Lacey provides detailed framing on how inflation complicates IRA goals, citing Orsted write-downs, battery pack prices, and IEA levelized cost data. Catherine Hamilton adds industry color regarding three-year transformer lead times and underwater PPAs. | |
| Power Sector Price Data and Market Competitiveness | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | Michael Boyle educates the room using Lawrence Berkeley National Lab and LevelTen PPA data, showing utility scale contract prices held steady while corporate PPAs jumped. Hamilton concurs on wind developer cost structure adjustments. | |
| The Offshore Wind Crisis: Cancellations and Contract Disputes | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | Maria Gallucci walks through the offshore wind crisis, detailing contract cancellations by Avangrid and Shell/Ocean Wind and why the Biden 30-gigawatt by 2030 target is slipping out of reach. | |
| Systemic Consequences of Offshore Wind Delays and State Collaboration | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | Boyle emphasizes the systemic necessity of offshore wind scaling, while Lacey and Gallucci highlight ripple effects including delayed Rhode Island export cables and idle port infrastructure. | |
| Monetary Policy, Trade Barriers, and Basel III Financial Uncertainty | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | Boyle explains the direct mechanics of monetary policy on levelized solar costs (showing a 300 bps rate cut drops LCOE by 20%), while Hamilton informs the panel about proposed Basel III capital risk multipliers on clean energy financing. | |
| Emerging Technologies and Proactive Policy Solutions | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | Lacey asks about industrial decarbonization start-ups, while Boyle and Hamilton outline policy levers including FERC interconnection reform and domestic manufacturing incentives. | |
| Long-Term Decarbonization Trajectory and Market Resilience | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | Lacey asks whether inflation will permanently impair decarbonization targets. Boyle counters pessimistic narratives by pointing to Texas deploying massive solar volume purely on market economics without state mandates. | |
| Analyzing the IEA World Energy Outlook Peak Fossil Fuel Forecast | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | Lacey introduces the IEA World Energy Outlook peak fossil fuels projection. Hamilton clarifies that peaking means reaching a 73% fossil plateau rather than immediate rapid decarbonization. | |
| Capital Realignment, China's Clean Energy Boom, and OPEC Pushback | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | Boyle provides data on clean energy capital outstripping fossil investments and cites China deploying 150 GW of solar and 40 GW offshore wind farms. Hamilton dismisses OPEC's critical op-ed as predictable self-preservation. | |
| Sectoral Transitions: Electric Vehicles, Solar Scale, and Coal Lessons | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | Gallucci covers EV sales projections to 2040, Hamilton highlights solar PV manufacturing scale, and Boyle offers analysis on structural coal decline and the necessity of community-led transition policies. | |
| Climate Targets Reality Check and Long-Term Optimism | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | Lacey queries the panel for cautionary notes. The panel balances realism around the 1.5C target and stranded fossil assets with long-term policy momentum. | |
| The Forecast: FERC Reliability Hearings and Battery Locomotives | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | Boyle forecasts the upcoming FERC reliability conference regarding EPA power plant rules, and Gallucci previews commercial 7 MWh battery-electric rail locomotives. | |
| The Forecast: Federal AI Guidelines and Offshore Wind Drones | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | Hamilton highlights the Biden AI executive order, prompting Lacey to showcase Latitude Media's own research into power sector AI use cases, heavy-lift offshore wind drones, and digital twins. |
Statements from this episode (24)
Ørsted cancels two NJ offshore wind projects, taking $5.5B write-down
“Just today, right before we started recording, the Danish developer Orsted said it would ditch two offshore wind farms off the coast of New Jersey because of rising financing and construction costs, and it'll take maybe a five and a half billion dollar write d…”
FirstLight Power faces three-year wait times for electrical transformers
“And First Light Power, for example, is a hydropower operator and developer, and they said transformers. Three years to get a transformer in place.”
Boyle: Utility-scale renewable PPA prices rose only ~10% in early 2023
“In, in the first half of 2023, average utility PPA prices didn't budge much in the utility scale sector, about 10% on average.”
Corporate renewable PPA prices jumped up to 50% since 2021
“Corporate purchases in the level 10 database rose significantly, up as much as 50% in some markets since 2021.”
Gallucci: Avangrid and Shell paid fines to exit Massachusetts wind projects
“We saw Avangrid in Massachusetts. They paid fifty million dollars in fines to walk away from the Commonwealth Wind project, and Shell and Ocean Wind did the same to walk away from another major project near Martha's Vineyard,”
Gallucci: New York regulators rejected offshore wind PPA renegotiation requests
“In New York, developers recently asked the state if they would consider renegotiating these PPAs. The state's Public Service Commission denied that, and so now these companies are kind of considering what to do,”
Gallucci: Rhode Island Regulators Halt Transmission Review Calling Wind Project 'Hypothetical'
“The developers wanted to run this export cable beneath Rhode Island state waters, and the regulator said there's no reason for them to go through the trouble of reviewing this proposed cable because of the offshore wind project is quote unquote hypothetical ri…”
A 300 bps interest rate cut reduces solar LCOE by 20%
“We found, for example, if you reduce interest rates, 300 basis points from seven percent today to four percent, you can reduce the levelized cost of a typical utility scale solar plant by about 20%, or about six dollars per megawatt hour.”
Hamilton: Federal Subsidies Will Lead to Mass Battery Manufacturing by Major OEMs
“They have not had a liquid market, really. They're not a lot of big, huge OEMs just churning, churning out batteries, and there will be as a result. Of all of this funding, and I think that will change the equation, too, because in addition to interconnection,…”
Boyle: Renewables sector will stop talking about inflation in a couple years
“When it comes to production, I tend to think that we're not going to be talking a ton about inflation in the renewable sector in a couple of years, and like I said before, the value of these projects is, is there in spades.”
Texas is poised to surpass California in utility-scale solar deployment
“You can look at what renewables are doing in Texas, which is arguably the most free electricity market in the country and they're adding so much solar that they're about to or perhaps even have passed California in terms of utility scale solar deployment with …”
Global coal and gas power plant additions have fallen by 50%
“Internal combustion engine sales are down they're below where they were before COVID additions of coal and gas plants are down 50%, sales of residential gas boilers is down, heat pumps are up, there's a real momentum toward electrification.”
Hamilton: Fossil Fuels Will Still Comprise 73% of Energy After 2030 Peak
“When we talk about a peak, that means after 2030, we'll still be at about 73% fossil. It just means we will then start the decline.”
Boyle: Clean energy investment now exceeds fossil spending by widening margin
“In the IEA's report, you can see how in the last few years, the spending, And the investment in clean energy technologies is starting to exceed fossil investment by a widening margin.”
China to add 150 GW solar in 2023, 1 TW by 2026
“China in particular is adding clean energy at an absolutely mind-boggling pace. They're expected to add a 150 gigawatts of solar in twenty-twenty-three. That's roughly five times what the U.S. Is projected to add, and they're projected to top a terawatt of tot…”
Boyle: Coal demand will drop faster than IEA projects due to China
“The sheer investment happening in China is enough to make me bullish that, at least when it comes to coal, we're likely to see a steeper drop off than the IEA expects.”
Gallucci: IEA Projects 650M Electric Cars on the Road by 2040
“So in, in 2020, there were about ten million electric cars on the road, and by 2040, IEA says we could have six hundred fifty million electric cars on the road.”
Gallucci: IEA Finds EVs on Course for 40% of Car Sales by 2030
“The IEA says that electric vehicles are on course to make up 40% of all new car sales by 2030, up from just 15% of sales today.”
Hamilton: Renewables Set to Make Up 80% of New Power Capacity by 2030
“Renewables are set to contribute about 80% of new power capacity by 2030, with PV, solar PV alone, counting for more than half.”
Hamilton: 70% Solar PV Manufacturing Usage Meets Net Zero Targets
“Using 70% of that anticipated solar PV manufacturing capacity would bring deployment to the levels projected in the net zero scenarios.”
Gallucci: Wabtec deploying 7 MWh commercial battery electric locomotive in Australia
“This is what the company Wabtec says is the world's first Battery electric locomotive that will operate a commercial scale. It's going to be deployed at a mining site in Australia, and it will have a seven megawatt hour battery.”
Boyle is skeptical of using rail battery storage for grid response
“Potentially A way to move storage from one place to another and provide emergency demand response. That concept I'm not totally bought in on, but who knows? Maybe we'll be moving batteries on trains and using it for the grid.”
There will not be a standalone 'AI-only' category in climate tech
“It's sort of a subcategory where you're going to see a lot of AI integration into existing products, but there's not going to be this like AI only category and climate tech. It's going to be a part of many of the other existing climate tech categories”
Lacey: Ørsted deployed a drone carrying 150-pound cargo to offshore wind sites
“And Orsted Just this month deployed a first-of-its-kind drone that will be able to carry cargo up to a 150 pounds to offshore wind sites, and they're using this to more safely and efficiently get stuff to their developments”