Michelle Davis of Wood Mackenzie gives a realistic forecast for how many announced US solar module manufacturing facilities will actually be completed.
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2050
Davis: Solar will make up 40% of US generating capacity by 2050
“According to our outlooks, by twenty-fifty, 40% of the generating capacity, just like electricity generating capacity in, in the U.S. Will be solar.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Davis: Solar will basically be the energy industry in two decades
“Solar is not just sort of one of the fastest growing, most important renewable energy technologies. It's one of the fastest growing, most important energy technologies, period. Like it will be basically The energy industry in the next couple of decades. Like, …”
Prediction Partly held up
Davis: Global solar growth rates to slow, remaining flat in China
“But then, you know, this year and next year we're sort of hitting, we're kind of like hitting past that inflection point and growth rates are actually going to slow in many different markets. China being one of them. So growth's actually flat over the next sev…”
Opinion
Davis: Grid capacity constraints are slowing solar growth in key markets
“And I would argue that in all three of those markets, you're seeing slowing growth because of grid capacity constraints.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Davis: China will maintain solar manufacturing dominance despite global factory buildouts
“Even if all the different announcements, whether in China or in the rest of the world, come to fruition, the share that China makes up isn't really going to change that much. Like, maybe a couple percentage points as other Countries around the globe build out …”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Davis: Chinese solar module prices will floor at 12-15 cents in 2024
“Well, in terms of pricing trends just for Chinese modules, we do expect some further declines throughout twenty-twenty-four. Depending on what module technology you're talking about modules can be, you know, 15 to 18 cents, and we expect that they might go dow…”