Jan 9, 2024 · 29m · green-blueprint
The terawatt era of PV: ‘Solar will be the gas of today’
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In this episode of The Carbon Copy, host Stephen Lacey and Wood Mackenzie's Michelle Davis discuss the solar industry's transition into the multi-terawatt era, examining supply chain dominance, grid interconnection barriers, trade policy, and storage integration.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 5.4 Guest teaching 5.4 Guest disagreement 1.1 The hosts pushing back 1.1
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 24:11 Davis pushes back on VPP hyperbole
Davis directly challenges popular industry optimism surrounding VPPs by pointing out that residential battery storage volume remains too small in most states to alter utility plant decisions.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 24:11 Lacey questions universal VPP transition claimsLacey presses Davis on whether high-profile claims from advocates like Jigar Shah that every solar company will become a VPP company are overstated.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 15:10 Davis details the domestic cell manufacturing voidDavis educates listeners on the critical gap between module assembly and cell manufacturing, demonstrating why domestic content bonus targets remain difficult to achieve.
The host holds their own ▶ 3:00 Lacey synthesizes global solar installation forecastsLacey demonstrates strong command of industry forecasting data by comparing BNEF and Wood Mackenzie figures and parsing out unassigned country buffer assumptions.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global PV Forecasts and the Growth S-Curve | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | Lacey demonstrates solid market knowledge by comparing BNEF and Wood Mackenzie forecasts, while Davis provides expert insight into the S-curve inflection point and regional grid bottlenecks. | |
| Post-COVID Market Dynamics and Shifting Procurement Strategies | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | Lacey outlines post-COVID supply chain disruptions and historical installation figures, while Davis contextualizes the impact of low interest rates on residential solar momentum. | |
| China's Manufacturing Dominance and Module Price Floors | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | Lacey queries the structural dominance of China and module price oversupply, leading Davis to break down cost floors and the inevitable market correction. | |
| The Inflation Reduction Act's Impact on Domestic PV | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | Lacey makes a sharp distinction between battery manufacturing momentum and solar cell incentives under the IRA, prompting Davis to explain the lack of domestic cell manufacturing capacity. | |
| Navigating U.S. Interconnection Backlogs and Growth Rates | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | Lacey lists key headwinds including California net metering changes and interconnection queues, while Davis explains why low-teens growth represents natural industry maturation. | |
| Technological Transitions: N-Type Cells and Storage Attachment | 5 | 6 | 2 | 2 | Lacey probes Jigar Shah's claim about solar companies turning into VPPs, prompting Davis to temper expectations with empirical data on low battery attachment rates outside key states. | |
| Global Wildcards: Trade Risks and Solar Cannibalization | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | Lacey invites Davis to weigh long-term risks, and she details supply chain vulnerabilities under import bans like UFLPA and the cannibalization risk of negative midday pricing. |
Statements from this episode (20)
Lacey: 1.5 terawatts of solar is four times global nuclear capacity
“A terawatt and a half of capacity is four times greater than global nuclear capacity.”
Davis: Solar will make up 40% of US generating capacity by 2050
“According to our outlooks, by twenty-fifty, 40% of the generating capacity, just like electricity generating capacity in, in the U.S. Will be solar.”
Davis: Solar will basically be the energy industry in two decades
“Solar is not just sort of one of the fastest growing, most important renewable energy technologies. It's one of the fastest growing, most important energy technologies, period. Like it will be basically The energy industry in the next couple of decades. Like, …”
Lacey: BloombergNEF projects over 700 GW annual solar additions by 2030
“In its recent solar PV outlook, Bloomberg New Energy Finance projects well over 700 gigawatts of installations per year by 2030.”
Lacey: Wood Mackenzie forecasts 370 GW yearly solar installations by 2030
“Now, Wood Mac expects about 370 gigawatts yearly by then.”
Davis: Global solar growth rates to slow, remaining flat in China
“But then, you know, this year and next year we're sort of hitting, we're kind of like hitting past that inflection point and growth rates are actually going to slow in many different markets. China being one of them. So growth's actually flat over the next sev…”
Davis: Grid capacity constraints are slowing solar growth in key markets
“And I would argue that in all three of those markets, you're seeing slowing growth because of grid capacity constraints.”
Davis: Low pandemic interest rates drove record US residential solar installations
“So I would actually argue that the pandemic, because the, because low interest rates have been such a big factor in fueling affordable loans for residential solar, the pandemic in, at least in the United States, actually helped drive more residential solar tha…”
Davis: China holds over 80% of solar module component manufacturing capacity
“China has over 80% of the manufacturing capacity for every component, important component, in a solar module.”
Davis: China will maintain solar manufacturing dominance despite global factory buildouts
“Even if all the different announcements, whether in China or in the rest of the world, come to fruition, the share that China makes up isn't really going to change that much. Like, maybe a couple percentage points as other Countries around the globe build out …”
Davis: Chinese solar module prices will floor at 12-15 cents in 2024
“Well, in terms of pricing trends just for Chinese modules, we do expect some further declines throughout twenty-twenty-four. Depending on what module technology you're talking about modules can be, you know, 15 to 18 cents, and we expect that they might go dow…”
Davis: Solar module prices will start to rise slightly by 2025
“And so by, you know, 20, 25 or so, we do anticipate that the pricing will start to go up a little bit more. Not a whole lot. But basically 20, 24 should be the floor for some of those module prices.”
Davis: The US currently has no meaningful domestic solar cell manufacturing
“There's no real, there's no cell manufacturing in the U.S. To speak of.”
Davis: The IRA will boost US solar installations by 40%
“When the IRA was first passed in August of, you know, we modified our forecasts, and we anticipated that over the next five years, the IRA would increase installations in the U.S. By, like, 40%. Pretty, you know, pretty big impact from a very historic piece of…”
Davis: Only 50 GW of 120 GW announced US capacity will materialize
“Again, like I said, we don't anticipate all of that. 120 gigawatts of module manufacturing is going to get built. We expect it'll be more like, you know, 50 or so over the next you know, four or five years.”
Davis: Corporate and utility buyers drive the majority of US solar procurement
“The primary drivers of utility scale solar procurement, at least, are corporate buyers signing contracts and voluntary procurement on the part of utilities. That's where the majority of utility scale solar, or how the majority of utility scale solar is procure…”
Davis: The United States solar market will grow 10% in 2024
“So in 2024, overall, we're forecasting that the U.S. Market is going to grow 10%.”
Davis: Solar manufacturing will shift predominantly to N-type modules by 2028
“So we're going to witness over the course of the next three, four years A pretty big shift from mostly P-type modules, which is just, you know, a cell technology that's mostly the older technology, to predominantly N-type modules, and particularly technologies…”