Assertion Not checkable as stated
Immerman: Waymo remains significantly ahead of Tesla on safety metrics
“But when you take a step back and compare the data, whether it's disengagements, reported accidents in Austin, Waymo is still significantly ahead today, and we feel really good about their position.”
Assertion Partly supported
Immerman: Kalshi is number one across users, revenue, and volume
“And today they're number one across users, revenue, volume, any metric that, that anyone would care about.”
Assertion Supported
Immerman: OpenAI and Anthropic added revenue equal to half of public cloud
“If you look at OpenAI and Anthropic alone, the two, those two companies added as much revenue last year as half of the public cloud universe, excluding the mag seven.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2031
Immerman: Rideshare market will grow by at least 10x in coming years
“And so the ride share market is going to grow by You know, at least in order of magnitude in the coming years.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2036
Immerman: Top 1% venture outcome will reach $40B in 8-10 years
“Every five years, that, that top one percent outcome doubles. And so, if you were to fast forward another, you know, eight to 10 years, That's forty billion is the top one percent outcome.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Immerman: a16z can almost guarantee viral launches for founders
“We can go to an early stage founder and almost guarantee That their launch is going to go viral.”
Assertion Supported
Immerman: Flock Safety solves over 2,800 cases daily, 15% of US crime
“Flock solves over 2800 cases every day.
That's 15% of reported crime in America.”
Assertion Contradicted
Immerman: Under five public software and fintech companies grow 30%+
“If you were to scan public internet software fintech, there are fewer than five percent, sorry, there are fewer than five companies growing north of 30%.
This year.”
Assertion Supported
Immerman: Waymo reached 25% San Francisco market share, beating Lyft
“They, in San Francisco, it got to 25% market share really quickly with very few cars. You know, Surpassing Lyft and being a formidable competitor to Uber.”
Assertion Partly supported
Immerman: Revolut has reached 40% ROE, surpassing Nubank
“And that has resulted in Revolut already having, like, 40% ROEs, which are higher than a new bank.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2031
Immerman: Larry Page will be the world's second trillionaire
“Would probably put my money today on Larry Page quarter trillion. Google, Google, or should say Alphabet has like woken up. They own, you know, close to a hundred percent of search. They own a hundred percent of deep mind. They own like mid teens percentage of…”
Disclosure
Immerman: a16z joined Waymo's $16B Series D at $126B valuation
“Waymo raised sixteen billion dollars at a hundred twenty six billion dollar valuation. It was their Series D. We're really excited to be a major participant there. We've participated in all four of their external rounds dating back to the Series A.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Immerman: Waymo is scaling to over 20 new cities this year
“They're scaling to over 20 new cities this year.”
Assertion Supported
Immerman: Meta, Salesforce, Deutsche Telekom, and Revolut build on ElevenLabs
“Fast forward to today, the enterprise business has customers like Meta and Salesforce and Deutsche Telekom. They announced Revolut last week. These are massive companies that are building agents on top of their platform.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Immerman: A lot of Kalshi's volume comes from sports
“And today a lot of Cal shoes volume does come from sports. There's no hiding that.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Immerman: Stablecoins will increasingly power worker payouts in coming years
“I think like you fast forward you know, a few more years and we're going to see increasingly payouts to all types of workers coming that way. And eventually Consumers having it.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Immerman: 150 companies hit $100M revenue annually today versus 15 in 2009
“Today, we believe that's like 10 x larger, like a 150 every year.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Immerman: No books by a16z partners were ghostwritten
“None of these books were ghostwritten.”
Prediction Held up
Immerman: Elon Musk has 90%+ odds of becoming world's first trillionaire
“Well, if that market existed today, I think it would probably be like 90% plus odds on Elon. He's like pretty close at this point. Depending on, you know, where his companies go out he's certainly the favorite. So I would definitely bet on him.”
Disclosure
Immerman: Roughly 50% of a16z Growth investments are early-stage portfolio follow-ons
“Of the companies you named and of our portfolio at large, roughly 50% Of our investments, our follow-ons to our early stage winners companies breaking out.”
Disclosure
Immerman: a16z early-stage team met 90% of companies a16z Growth backs
“90% of the companies we're investing in out of our growth fund, our early stage team has met.”
Assertion Supported
Immerman: Ride hailing represents under 1% of US vehicle miles
“Ride hailing in that aggregate large number I just shared, is less than one percent of vehicle miles in the US.”
Assertion Partly supported
Immerman: Revolut has 10 revenue streams, none exceeding 20% of total
“So Revolut has, you know, 10 different revenue streams. Not a single one is more than 20% of revenue, so incredibly diversified as we mentioned.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Immerman: a16z Growth portfolio companies average over 100% growth
“Our portfolio is growing, you know, on average over a hundred percent.”
