The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone Dino Mavrookas (13)Keller Rinaudo Cliffton (4)Alex Immerman (4)Shaun Maguire (3)Pete Shadbolt (3)Doug Bernauer (3)David Ulevitch (3)Ben Lamm (3)Sir Peter Beck (2)Scott Nolan (2)Richard Socher (2)Pedro Franceschi (2)
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Cliffton: Zipline Will Scale to 1M Deliveries Daily in Next Few Years
“You know, Zipline is gonna scale to a million deliveries a day over the next couple years, and that is gonna require us to continue that rate of, like, 15% week-over-week growth for another several years straight, and that's so we're not currently looking to, …”
675 days left 2028-07-19
675 days left 2028-07-19
Johnston: SpaceX will reach a $10 trillion valuation within years
“My hottest take right now is that the SpaceX IPO is the, gonna be viewed historically as the most undervalued IPO of all time. I think they will tear through 10 trillion within, you know, certainly within the next couple of years, and then have almost unlimite…”
840 days left 2028-12-31
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2006 days left 2032-03-11
Raanan: An Israeli cybersecurity startup will reach a $50B valuation by 2032
“I'm pretty sure that in, in, in six years, maybe less, we'll see a fifty billion dollar and a hundred billion dollar cyber security company out of Israel. You know. I take it like take it like a fact, like, you know, the sun was, would rise tomorrow. You know,…”
2142 days left 2032-07-25
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Mavrookas: Port Alpha will create 10,000 jobs and $160B economic impact
“So what we're going to do at Port Alpha, you mentioned 10 years, over the next 10 years, we're going to create 10,000 jobs. We're going to invest billions of dollars. I mean, we're going to have a hundred and sixty billion dollar economic impact in Brownsville…”
4857 days left 2039-12-31
4902 days left 2040-02-14
McCormick: Supersonic Private and Commercial Flight Will Emerge Within 10 to 15 Years
“I think there's a path where we wake up in 1015 years, and, like, first it's supersonic private planes, and then supersonic commercial planes, and, like, that is a long path to kind of get there, but, like, the technology is there, and actually, like, just bat…”
5270 days left 2041-02-16
Blania: BCI will reach broad consumer applications within 15 years
“Like if you now look at a 15 year time horizon, I think it's going to be a couple of years of research, then a couple of years of medical applications and like hopefully bringing benefits to a lot of people that really need such a technology and then eventuall…”
5953 days left 2042-12-31
Power: Demographic decline will pressure Xi Jinping to act before 2037-2042
“We just have to last till about 2037, 20 42, and then kind of overnight China's working population will cut in half, and then they can try again in another thousand years. So that will put a lot of pressure in our opinion on Xi to actually do something, becaus…”
8875 days left 2050-12-31
Due for another look (1)
Ritter: Interest rates probably will not drop and may rise
“Interest rates are probably not going down. My bet is that they're Either going to kind of stay where they are, which is fine for kind of absolute, you know levels, but we have some potential policies coming that could drive up interest rates and basically inf…”
Closed calls (44) the full record →
Lamm: Earth is forecasted to lose 50% of biodiversity within 25 years
“It's currently forecasted that we're going to lose up to 50% of all biodiversity in the next 25 years.”
Immerman: Elon Musk has 90%+ odds of becoming world's first trillionaire
“Well, if that market existed today, I think it would probably be like 90% plus odds on Elon. He's like pretty close at this point. Depending on, you know, where his companies go out he's certainly the favorite. So I would definitely bet on him.”
Franceschi: Incumbent ERP companies will not build autonomous AI agents
“You have existing incumbents in the finance space, like the ERP companies, for example, I don't think they're going to go do that.”
Wright: Space Data Centers Are Inevitable to Power Lunar and Martian Bases
“This is actually a debate that we have in terms of how soon it's going to happen, but it's definitely going to happen. Data centers in space is coming, and it makes sense, right? If you think about and you know, a lot of this is public, but what SpaceX is talk…”
Ulevitch: All future autonomous vehicles will be electric
“Part of the shift to electric vehicles, obviously we have EVs today, but as we shift to more autonomous vehicles, all those vehicles are going to be electric as well.”
Serhant predicts a new Class A office development race in NYC
“I think now you're gonna have a Class A office race. So now, Ken Griffin, Vernado. Right? And those guys are going to do park, and I think it's 51st. They're just going to tear down all those buildings on 51st and just build a brand new tower to compete with t…”
Shadbolt: Quantum commercial adoption will precede cryptographic security risks
“You should get like an economic early warning sign essentially where you should see quantum computing companies Doing commercially impactful things, making money, and then eventually scaling towards systems that are big enough to be cryptographically relevant.”
Anthropic will inevitably reach AI Security Level 3, potentially by late 2025
“Whether security level three is going to be a thing. And I think the short answer is, yeah, it's just a question of time. And is it going to be this side of Christmas or after? I don't know yet”
Armstrong: AI Agents Will Use Base Wallets to Form an Agentic Economy
“We're also going to see AI agents have their own financial accounts, and we're powering that with the base, like, MCP API so they can have their own self-custodial wallet now and start to have a true agentic economy, paying for goods and services, hiring other…”
Maguire: SpaceX will deliver major direct-to-cell service by 2028
“And then I think in roughly twenty-twenty-eight, it's gonna be the year of direct to sell, and SpaceX talked about this publicly, but it's gonna take time, you know, they just acquired a bunch of spectrum, it takes time to get, you know, Antennas and phones op…”
Nolan: Turbines will likely be the bottleneck for expanding natural gas power
“Turbines will be the bottleneck most likely.”
AI will reason over three-hour screen recordings in two to three years
“I think it's inevitable that in about two or three years, we will have models that are multimodal, large context windows, are capable of reasoning over, say, three hours of a screen recording.”
Laffont: Top AI and tech unicorns will likely IPO within 24 months
“You know, some of them will probably go public in the next 12 to 24 months, so that'll be kind of one impact of it”
Goldstein: eVTOL aircraft will begin flying in US cities next year
“And so we came up with this concept around what they called the EIPP or eVTOL integration pilot program. And that was to allow these aircrafts to start flying in the cities in the U.S. As soon as next year. And so what they're going to do is they're actually g…”
Miller: Monthly AI token spend will go well above $500M
“I'm very bullish that we're going to go well above that.”
SpaceX will launch close to 200 times this year, says Fishner-Wolfson
“They're going to launch, I don't know what to me this year, but like something close to 200 times. Like no one else in the world is launching even 15, 20 times, right?”
Tony Kim: China has 30 to 40 potential robotics IPOs this year
“I'm looking at the current pipeline. I see 30, 40 potential IPOs this year in China.”
Bernauer predicts multiple nuclear entities will conduct fuel tests in 2026
“And I think others are going to do that same thing in that same year. So it won't even be just us. It'll be several different entities.”
Schimpf: Anduril will produce autonomous fighter jets in months
“We're making autonomous fighter jets. You know, like three years ago, we weren't believable to make autonomous fighter jets. Now we're doing it. And we're going to have them be produced in a production facility in like months from now.”
Fewer venture capital firms will raise opportunity or growth funds going forward
“I do think fewer people will raise opportunity funds or growth funds. I think that is likely.”