The Calls

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Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.

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3469days to next prediction date

Everyone Dino Mavrookas (13)Keller Rinaudo Cliffton (4)Alex Immerman (4)Shaun Maguire (3)Pete Shadbolt (3)Doug Bernauer (3)David Ulevitch (3)Ben Lamm (3)Sir Peter Beck (2)Scott Nolan (2)Richard Socher (2)Pedro Franceschi (2)

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today 2026202720282029 OctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep 1 call beyond 2029 →

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3469 days left 2036-03-13

Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2036

Immerman: Top 1% venture outcome will reach $40B in 8-10 years

“Every five years, that, that top one percent outcome doubles. And so, if you were to fast forward another, you know, eight to 10 years, That's forty billion is the top one percent outcome.”

Alex Immerman Mar 13, 2026 ▶ 40:48 Inside a16z Growth: Waymo, Stripe, ElevenLabs, Revolut, Coinbase, Kalshi · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea

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Prediction Held up

Immerman: Elon Musk has 90%+ odds of becoming world's first trillionaire

“Well, if that market existed today, I think it would probably be like 90% plus odds on Elon. He's like pretty close at this point. Depending on, you know, where his companies go out he's certainly the favorite. So I would definitely bet on him.”

Alex Immerman Mar 13, 2026 ▶ 47:07 Inside a16z Growth: Waymo, Stripe, ElevenLabs, Revolut, Coinbase, Kalshi · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea

The Calls

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