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The Calls

⏳ Open 📼 The record

Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.

1open predictions
0due for another look
1closed calls →
4857days to next prediction date
Everyone Dino Mavrookas (13)Keller Rinaudo Cliffton (4)Alex Immerman (4)Shaun Maguire (3)Pete Shadbolt (3)Doug Bernauer (3)David Ulevitch (3)Ben Lamm (3)Sir Peter Beck (2)Scott Nolan (2)Richard Socher (2)Pedro Franceschi (2)
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today 2026202720282029 OctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep 1 call beyond 2029 →

Next up (1)

4857 days left 2039-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2039
Nolan: Next-gen nuclear capacity will scale in the 2030s, not 2020s
“I think we see the big ramp next decade. This decade is about proving out the technologies, getting them licensed, giving them early deployments, and then it's going to be time to scale in the 20 thirties.”
Scott Nolan Jul 30, 2025 ▶ 22:18 Peter Thiel’s $50M Bet on U.S. Uranium Enrichment, General Matter · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea

Closed calls (1) the full record →

Prediction Held up
Nolan: Turbines will likely be the bottleneck for expanding natural gas power
“Turbines will be the bottleneck most likely.”
Scott Nolan Jul 30, 2025 ▶ 23:35 Peter Thiel’s $50M Bet on U.S. Uranium Enrichment, General Matter · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
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