Prediction Not checkable as stated
Nolan: AI power demand by 2030 projected to match entire current US grid
“And I, you know, you look at some of these projections of AI power consumption over the next five years, and by 2030, it's predicted to basically consume all the, equivalent to all the power that's on the US grid today.”
Assertion Supported
Nolan: Only Russia currently produces commercial HALEU nuclear fuel
“If we need HALU, which is more enriched fuel for the factory built reactors, we need to get that fuel from Russia. Only Russia makes it today.”
Assertion Supported
Nolan: US produces under 0.1% of global enriched uranium today
“And so we're here now today with the U S doing less than .1% of global enrichment, effectively R and D capacity, not much commercial capacity, and just completely relying on foreign state backed entities. About 25% of enrichment in the U S comes from Russia an…”
Assertion Supported
Nolan: China doubled its grid since 2010 while US stayed flat
“And you look at China's grid in 2010,
U S and China were neck and neck.
Just that's where the two lines cross on the chart, 2010.
And since then China's doubled its grid while we stayed flat.
So now they have two X the energy production that we have, and it's …”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2039
Nolan: Next-gen nuclear capacity will scale in the 2030s, not 2020s
“I think we see the big ramp next decade. This decade is about proving out the technologies, getting them licensed, giving them early deployments, and then it's going to be time to scale in the 20 thirties.”
Opinion
Nolan: AGI Is Not Necessary to Scale Nuclear Energy
“I don't know that AGI specifically is really necessary. I think what we just have to do is just start building, and we have the technology in the nuclear industry already. The reactor designs are there, and it's just going to be a matter of deployment and cons…”
Assertion Contradicted
Nolan: Vogtle Nuclear Plant Was Cheaper Than Contemporary Offshore Wind
“If you look at nuclear historically, like you look at Vogel, which You know, it was over budget, over schedule. People still highlight it was still cheaper than offshore wind that was built around the same time.”
Opinion
Nolan: NRC staff are highly motivated and want more nuclear power
“We've actually seen that, you know, almost the opposite. So all the people we've interacted with on the NRC on various topics want more nuclear. They're extremely responsive, smart, fast, motivated.”
Insight
Nolan: Fuel drives costs for modular reactors, with enrichment being largest factor
“Once you make the reactor really affordable and you factory build your reactor, now your fuel drives the cost, and enrichment's the biggest segment of fuel costs, and so if you actually care about making nuclear not just the safest and cleanest form of baseloa…”
Insight
Nolan: SpaceX blended one-third aerospace incumbents with two-thirds Silicon Valley talent
“It was really a combination of two things. One was people from the industry, aerospace industry, who knew All the tricks, knew the science, knew the engineering but had a way of doing things that was more the incumbent way. And that was combined probably in a …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Nolan: DOE lab testing pathway will accelerate Gen-IV reactor deployment
“I think that's going to really accelerate the reactor development and deployment.”
Prediction Held up
Nolan: Turbines will likely be the bottleneck for expanding natural gas power
“Turbines will be the bottleneck most likely.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2030
Nolan: New Rules Will Enable NRC to Factor in Nuclear Benefits
“I think we're going to see these regulations actually change the way those people in the NRC are able to operate. Setting hard deadlines on things, giving them the freedom to factor in benefits of nuclear.”
Assertion Partly supported
Nolan: US supplied roughly 65% of global enriched uranium mid-century
“If you rewind to the fifties, sixties, seventies, US was most of the world's enrichment. We were 65% roughly, and we did that through a first generation technology called gaseous diffusion.”
Assertion Supported
Nolan: Russian uranium import waivers expire on January 1, 2028
“There's a Russian imports ban on, you know, in place now, but that ban actually goes into full effect when the waivers end on January first, 20, 28.”
Disclosure
General Matter considers Utah, Texas, Wyoming, and Washington for plant
“There's a bunch of states that are very nuclear friendly that we've been talking to. So you know, Utah, Texas, Wyoming, Washington are all really good candidates.”
Assertion Contradicted
Nolan: DOD executive order targets three site reactors next year
“And then you had the DOD executive order, which talked about deploying three reactors on DOD sites as early as next year.”
Assertion Supported
Nolan: General Matter Selected for DOE Enrichment Programs in LEU and HALEU
“Throughout the last year, we were selected for a couple large programs, really historic programs that the DOE has led around enrichment capacity, both on the low enriched side and on the HALU side.”
