The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 3,713 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 120 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Reses: Claims of systematic industry 'debanking' are an absolute crock
“Okay, I don't believe there was debanking. I think it's a crock of shit. I think it's an absolute crock of shit.”
Adcock claims Figure's internal AI team was running circles around OpenAI
“It got to a point where we were just like, our team internally that was designing these models were running circles around OpenAI. We were just way better at this. And we were better about testing on the robots, training the models, like all, all of it.”
Rabois: Opendoor should cut headcount from 1,400 to 200–300 max
“There's 1400 employees. There should be like more like 200 or 300 max”
Sadeghi: Nucleus is the first company to optimize embryos for IQ
“This is the first time a company has partnered with a couple who have optimized their embryos on the basis of intelligence.”
Biden administration delayed Starliner rescue to deny Elon Musk a political win
“The Biden administration clearly turned that down because they didn't want to give SpaceX a political, an Elon, a political win against Boeing in the midst of the, you know, campaign was campaigning for Trump.”
Mavrookas: Saronic will test a hypersonic missile before a manned Navy vessel
“We're actually going to be able to launch a hypersonic missile off of the back of Marauder, which is an autonomous ship, Before the Navy completes their first test of a hypersonic missile off of a manned vessel.”
Lamm: Colossal could birth an extinct species within 12 months
“The next 12 months, I'm looking forward to Colossal potentially having the next birthed extinct species.”
Armstrong: The New York Times is a political propaganda arm
“In my view, the New York Times is more of like a political propaganda arm than it is doing any real journal, journalism at this point.”
Brett Adcock says he terminated Figure's AI collaboration agreement with OpenAI
“And so I fired him.”
Goldstein: Competitor weaponized the government by framing Archer engineer as a spy
“If, in America, I didn't think it was possible for a competitor to weaponize the government to come after you. And we saw that. It was unbelievable. It was you know, one of my engineers was set up to look like he was like a Chinese spy, and it was totally fake…”
Michael: Pete Hegseth is already the greatest Defense Secretary in our lifetimes
“Pete Hegsus, I think, is going to be, and is already, probably the greatest Secretary of War in our lifetimes.”
Karp: No expert class has been right about anything in 20 years
“I can't think of any expert class that's been right about anything substantive in the last 20 years.”
Vasavada: GPs expensing private jets to investment funds is a scam
“And then what a lot of GPs do or a lot of managers do is they actually expense these planes or the operating costs from their fund. Which is, I feel like a complete scam, but you can basically deduct The cost of operating an aircraft from the actual fund, whic…”
Sadeghi: Patients, not doctors, should use genetic data to select embryos
“We believe that every piece of information from cancer to IQ to schizophrenia belongs very thoughtfully in the hands of the patient, and the patient is the one, not the doctor, that the patient is the one that should pick their embryo.”
Mansoor: Kalshi's federal regulation allows sports trading across all 50 states
“It's the first time that sports, like, trading on sports is actually legal in all 50 states. Because we are regulated by the, you know, by the feds, like, at the federal level, not state by state. And the federal regulation, like, the law actually supersedes s…”
Asparouhov calls progressive San Francisco liberals among the most racist people
“Progressive SF liberals are actually some of the most racist people that I've ever met, you know, on the planet.”
Mavrookas: Saronic Corsairs rescued downed Apache pilots and attacked Iranian port
“Corsairs, which you just saw, were actively being used in the Straits of Hormuz. Two examples that were made public were one, the Apache pilot rescue of two down pilots, And then a offensive attack on an Iranian port, which actually took out an Iranian submari…”
Beck: Large VC firms are often the worst at space diligence
“Cause you see so many, you see a company that's just objectively terrible. And they just continue to get funding. There's just new investor after new investor and after new investor, but sometimes, sometimes like the really big firms that you think are really …”
Beck: Many SPAC-Era Companies Went Public Because They Were 'Crap'
“I think a lot of public, a lot of companies went public during that SPAC time because they were just crap companies and they couldn't raise capital privately. So their only option was to be a public company.”
Lamm: Colossal intends to release extinct and gene-edited species into the wild
“So our goal for our extinct species are genetically modified gene drives and even cloning of endangered species. All of that is to go into the wild, but we have to have government and indigenous and global support.”
Arora Rejects AI Job Loss Fears Due to Talent Shortages
“We're gonna need more AI-ready people, so I don't buy the jobs argument. We have so many things to do, there's not enough people to do it.”
Engineers Must Experiment With AI on Personal Time to Be Hired
“How am I gonna know that if you know how to use OpenClaw? Well, how am I gonna know you understand what an agent is? If you're not playing with it already, you're not sitting, going back home from work saying, I can't wait to get my hands on the new developmen…”
Foroughi: Non-AI-native legacy companies must replace nearly everyone to successfully adapt
“Technically you almost have to replace near everyone and rebuild the culture up to be able to deal with the world as it is today, but that's not really possible for most companies. And so there's no clear answer for how those companies can get there.”
Monroe-Anderson: Many defense tech startup products may be completely useless
“Maybe my hottest take is that a lot of the defense tech, maybe the majority of defense tech products that are being put out right now by startups are not very effective and maybe even like completely useless.”
Monroe-Anderson: Neros was only PBAS winner to meaningfully deliver
“We ended up getting selected. They selected two other companies as well but we were the only ones to really deliver in a meaningful way”
GPS-reliant drone swarm demos fail completely under real battlefield conditions
“Intro, you know, 10, a hundred drones swarming together and going and hitting a target. It's all happening on ranges with GPS, which is not a real thing in the battlefield. And a lot of companies are demoing stuff that just does not actually hold up in realist…”
Monroe-Anderson: Very few defense tech startups have deployed meaningful equipment in Ukraine
“And there's very few defense tech startups that have a meaningful amount of equipment deployed in Ukraine. Like you can just go down the list and see.”
Wu: AI will be capable of performing all pure human knowledge work
“I've always felt that there's, in terms of just pure knowledge work, there's, there is nothing that humans do that AIs can't do, you know, partly because Humans are, humans, you know, our brains are just computers, you know, like the AIs are too, right?”
Tony Kim: AI compute requires $10 trillion in CapEx over five years
“So this is the irony of it all, that we're, the trillion dollars of CapEx this year, and the 10 trillion over the next five years that are coming,
Is to move data centimeters and millimeters.
That's AI.”
Friedberg: California is functionally bankrupt with a $30B–$40B budget deficit
“Well, if the ballot initiatives and the tax policy and the battle that's going on in the state for spending and taxation is any indication, I, you know, think it's probably true. The current budget from the governor is Something on the order of 30 to forty bil…”
Friedberg predicts the US faces tyranny or anarchy within two years
“Because otherwise you are going to have tyranny slash anarchy, which are both basically the same happening over the next couple of years in the United States.”
Friedberg: Social Security should be replaced with equity-invested 401(k) accounts
“Like, every American, instead of having a social security account, they should have the equivalent of a four or one K where they own stocks, and when they retire, they get all those stocks.”
Friedberg: Tax unrealized gains, raise capital gains to 40%, cut income taxes
“When billionaires borrow against their unrealized capital gains, they should pay capital gains tax. Capital gains tax should be 40%, not 15% or 18% or 20%. They should pay the same as labor. In fact, labor should pay less. Income tax should be much lower. Capi…”
Friedberg: Government Pension Plans Will Ultimately Bankrupt US States
“These pension plans are poison. The fundamental problem with these pension plans is that they will ultimately end up bankrupting the states, or they will become Ponzi schemes where people get screwed because they're expecting retirement benefits and they don't…”
Friedberg: Ending federal student loans solves 90% of education cost inflation
“Education, I think, is probably the easiest, which is if you end the federal student loan program, I think you solve 90% of the problem in education.”
Patel: Open-source AI is dying as Chinese labs shift to licensing
“The theme here is that all, like, there's multiple Chinese model labs who are telling all the inference guys, hey, yeah, yeah, our next model's not gonna be open source, we're gonna license it to you. So open is, is dying quickly, unfortunately.”
Patel: Strict token budgeting is a 'loser mentality' that stalls productivity
“I love token maxing. I think anyone who doesn't token max is going to get left behind. I think all this token budgeting stuff is, is loser mentality. If you're token budgeting hardcore, then your people are not going to learn the new workflows and then they're…”
Jain: Open source models will dominate AI inferencing within two years
“Well, I think open source models are going to dominate AI inferencing. You know, you'll see in the next two years, we'll shift to where's almost no open source to where's going to be almost all open source.”
Cook: Keyboards and mice will be obsolete within five years
“We're gonna look back in five years and say, of course we're not using keyboards and mice anymore. Like, we've come up with a better way to interact with intelligence.”
Grinberg: 90% of AI tokens will use open models within 12 months
“My hottest take is that in the next 12 months, 90% of tokens will be going to open models.”
Johnston: SpaceX will reach a $10 trillion valuation within years
“My hottest take right now is that the SpaceX IPO is the, gonna be viewed historically as the most undervalued IPO of all time. I think they will tear through 10 trillion within, you know, certainly within the next couple of years, and then have almost unlimite…”
Liang: SambaNova 10kW SN40 rack outperformed 140kW Nvidia GPU racks
“And so by the time we released SN-Forty a couple years ago, it became incredibly popular, because instead of a 130, a 140 kilowatt rack of NVIDIA GPU, we were outperforming them with a 10 kilowatt SN-Forty rack.”
Liang: Groq and Cerebras can only run small models fast
“Or you look at services like Rock Cerebus that run fast, you can only run the small models, right?”
Liang: Nvidia GPUs are a commodity offering very limited cost advantage
“People forget, as much as NVIDIA costs, it's commodity. Right? Because what you offer is the same as what your neighbor offers and your differentiation is, I can save you a little bit of money because maybe I got a discount from NVIDIA, right? Or maybe I got a…”
Feldman: xAI leased GPUs to Anthropic because Grok lacked usage
“They had available capacity because the Grok model wasn't used very much. So they had these GPUs that were sitting around and that's a bad idea. And so they sold a whole block of them or released a whole block of them to Anthropic.”
Feldman: Nvidia uses investments to pressure clouds and builders against rival chips
“There are ways for NVIDIA to use their balance sheet to limit competition, right? That if they invest in, in a NeoCloud, right? The NeoCloud is less likely to use a non-NVIDIA chip. If they invest in a model builder there's pressure not to use other people's c…”
Banister: OpenAI and Anthropic's closed, centralized AI approach is the wrong path
“It became incredibly centralized and closed source. And you're seeing that happen with open AI and Anthropic. It's the wrong path because everyone needs to have their own models. Everyone needs to be able to be able to compete and you don't want one company wi…”