Opinion
Biden administration delayed Starliner rescue to deny Elon Musk a political win
“The Biden administration clearly turned that down because they didn't want to give SpaceX a political, an Elon, a political win against Boeing in the midst of the, you know, campaign was campaigning for Trump.”
Opinion
Asparouhov calls progressive San Francisco liberals among the most racist people
“Progressive SF liberals are actually some of the most racist people that I've ever met, you know, on the planet.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Forty-seven of the top fifty defense startups will fail within fifteen years
“A significant number of the logos that are talked about today and the, you know, sort of top 50 in this field. You know, 47 of those are going to be companies that are completely irrelevant. Yeah. 15 years from today.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Only Anduril, Palantir, and SpaceX have delivered defense tech at scale
“Other than those three, there isn't really, like, a, like, unicorn VC-backed company that, like, has actually delivered things at scale for the Warfighter that doesn't really exist.”
Opinion
Asparouhov is skeptical of non-pharma microgravity manufacturing startups
“There have been a couple of companies come up, starting to try to tackle non-pharmaceutical product areas in, you know, microgravity manufacturing. And to me, I just find it quite confusing because they always phrase it as like, well, Varda is going to go to t…”
Opinion
'Gundo bro' culture is off-putting to women and limits talent pools
“I find some of the, like, you know, sort of you know, gundo bros or gundo boys, you know, culture you know, a bit off-putting to, you know, people that are not of the male gender, and it's something that I've, you know, heard validated, you know, sort of acros…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Asparouhov: Western Europe will resemble a second-world region in ten years
“Still you continue to extrapolate that trend for another 10 years. And like Western Europe is going to look like a second world country while Eastern Europe actually just sort of rises to the top.”
Assertion Partly supported
Asparouhov: NASA paid SpaceX half of Boeing's price for identical workload
“The entire structure of the contract is kind of insane in that they literally just, you know, gave SpaceX the same workload, but said the price for you doing it is going to be half of Boeing.”
Opinion
Relativity Space faces difficult turnaround due to burnt billions and demotivated team
“I think, you know, realistically, that seems like a really difficult hole to dig yourself out of where you're, you know, sort of billions of dollars. The team's probably somewhat, you know, sort of demotivated.”
Assertion Partly supported
US space startups bypass domestic regulators by obtaining German spectrum licenses
“A lot of space companies will actually go to Germany, because you can actually get a license from the German regulator of spectrum, and that is valid in the United States. That's probably a broken state of the world to be in.”
Disclosure
Asparouhov: FAA delay forced Varda into eight-month hold and extra dilution
“Software companies don't have to deal with the FAA, putting them on hold for eight months. During those eight months, I had employees, we had Bern, we had an office, right? Like, you know, that's got to come out of somewhere, mostly ends up coming out of the f…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
The defense tech market will support only one or two next-generation primes
“There's not going to be, like, five Andrels. Like, there's probably going to be an Andrel. There may be, like, a number two. That's probably about it, you know, in that sphere of, like, next generation Defense Prime.”
Opinion
Asparouhov: SpaceX is already the next-generation space defense prime
“The next generation space defense prime is SpaceX. They're the largest space defense prime. They have the largest contracts in that field. They are the long tail winner.”
Opinion
Asparouhov: Few Interesting Aerospace Defense Seed Rounds Remain as Winners Are Picked
“And that trend, you know, there's just not that many interesting seed rounds to do anymore because a lot of the winners have been picked.”
Insight
Venture capitalists achieve better investment performance when treating it as a hobby
“I think that it is a better you'll perform better if it's a hobby, so you know, take that as you wish.”
Assertion Contradicted
Asparouhov: Post-2012 top Midas List VCs heavily skew toward operators
“And if you look at, you know, sort of top hundred on the Midas list, for VCs, they started their careers sort of pre-thousand-twelve called versus post-thousand-twelve. Pre-thousand-twelve, there was definitely a large number of investors that were pure sort o…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Aerospace venture opportunity window may be closed for five to seven years
“There's a world now where we don't necessarily invest in aerospace for another, you know, sort of 10 years. And so, you know, sometimes, you know, some of these movements, I think, you know, can sometimes be a bit mistimed where, you know, I think the, you kno…”
Opinion
Asparouhov: Focus on robotics and minerals over aerospace and defense
“We should be focusing on other aspects of, you know, rare earth, you know, minerals production you know, industrial automation, you know, robotics, much more so than I would say actually aerospace defense. There's probably not that many more interesting compan…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Asparouhov: Humans Raised on the Moon Probably Cannot Survive on Earth
“If you like grow up on the moon, you probably just like can't come to earth because literally just your entire body system will just collapse because it has just not been built around a full one G.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Varda Space will achieve multiple launches and landings per quarter by 2026
“There is going to be a launch or landing for every board meeting this year. By next year, it's going to be, there's going to be a launch and landing between every board meeting. And by the end of that year, it's going to be multiple launches and landings, you …”
Insight
Asparouhov: Venture capital bubbles are a feature that lowers leaders' cost of capital
“There being bubbles in venture is a feature, not a bug in that it is both the way that you can significantly lower the cost of capitals for the leaders of those, you know, sort of fields”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Asparouhov: Trump administration may pursue punitive antitrust actions against big tech
“I think you may see Antitrust actions that were, you know, sort of just as punitive in the Biden regime towards tech happening in the Trump regime towards big tech.”
Disclosure
Ramp and Sword Health drive virtually all of Asparouhov's venture capital returns
“Basically, you know, ramp plus sword drive everything and, you know, the rest of everything that I've worked on is effectively a rounding error in comparison.”
Disclosure
Asparouhov: Goal is to meet only 30 founders annually
“My goal is ideally only meet with, you know, 30 founders per year, but make sure that one of those 30 is that, you know, sort of
.1%, you know, sort of founder.”