The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 786 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Sadeghi: Nucleus is the first company to optimize embryos for IQ
“This is the first time a company has partnered with a couple who have optimized their embryos on the basis of intelligence.”
Mansoor: Kalshi's federal regulation allows sports trading across all 50 states
“It's the first time that sports, like, trading on sports is actually legal in all 50 states. Because we are regulated by the, you know, by the feds, like, at the federal level, not state by state. And the federal regulation, like, the law actually supersedes s…”
Mavrookas: Saronic Corsairs rescued downed Apache pilots and attacked Iranian port
“Corsairs, which you just saw, were actively being used in the Straits of Hormuz. Two examples that were made public were one, the Apache pilot rescue of two down pilots, And then a offensive attack on an Iranian port, which actually took out an Iranian submari…”
Liang: SambaNova 10kW SN40 rack outperformed 140kW Nvidia GPU racks
“And so by the time we released SN-Forty a couple years ago, it became incredibly popular, because instead of a 130, a 140 kilowatt rack of NVIDIA GPU, we were outperforming them with a 10 kilowatt SN-Forty rack.”
Feldman: xAI leased GPUs to Anthropic because Grok lacked usage
“They had available capacity because the Grok model wasn't used very much. So they had these GPUs that were sitting around and that's a bad idea. And so they sold a whole block of them or released a whole block of them to Anthropic.”
Slotowicz: OpenAI recently announced internal plans to go public
“OpenAI just announced that they're going to be going public.”
Fishner-Wolfson claims OpenAI and Anthropic have confidentially filed S-1s
“SpaceX is the big one to kind of start this, but, I mean, as you mentioned, like, OpenAI and Anthropic are both valid. They're S-one's confidentially, so it's gonna be a pretty interesting, you know, few quarters in the public markets.”
Rangwalla: Anthropic Grew ARR From $9B in December to $30B
“It was nine billion dollars at the end of December, and that number was thirty billion, right? So they added twenty billion, they're adding, you know, ten billion plus or minus a month, almost two and a half billion dollars a week.”
Immerman: Kalshi is number one across users, revenue, and volume
“And today they're number one across users, revenue, volume, any metric that, that anyone would care about.”
McGee: Tim Cook Pledged $275B in Apple Investment to China
“They do their own supply chain study, sort of Apple internally, and realize that they're investing fifty-five billion dollars a year into Chinese factories, and once they've sort of established this, and they realize, like, how much that could mean to local an…”
McGee: Apple Funded Supply Ecosystem That Powered Huawei and Xiaomi
“Apple trained all of their suppliers, and then the suppliers in turn supplied Huawei, Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo. So that's why Nokia couldn't keep up. It's that China had this amazing ecosystem built for the smartphone industry, all paid for by Apple.”
Taylor: Russia funded German environmental groups to shut down nuclear reactors
“This was sort of a theory for a long time, but it's actually proven now that this did happen in Europe over the last 10 years. So Russian groups funded far left environmental groups in Germany to shut the reactors down in order, you know, to make it so that Ge…”
Nucleus software analyzes embryo DNA to predict IQ, cancer risk, and traits
“So usually parents have a couple viable embryos, and now they can actually take the raw DNA files of them, upload to Nucleus, and we'll give you analysis on everything from cancers, to IQ, to eye color, to hair color, to schizophrenia risk.”
Socher: You.com invented RAG at web scale before the term existed
“We realized just like with rag where we had invented rag already, we're doing it at a web scale, but it wasn't yet a term.”
Sadeghi: Scientific research already links genetics directly to intelligence
“At the frontier of science, we do already have associations with genetics and intelligence, and we really believe in giving these insights to customers.”
Mavrookas: China built over 1,000 commercial ships in 2024 versus five in the US
“They built over a thousand commercial ships last year, and the United States built five. I think this was 20, 24. Five. Like one, two, three, four, Five. Large, ocean-going commercial vessels.”
Mavrookas: China outbuilds the United States in shipbuilding 230 to one
“China outbuilds the US 230 to one.”
Mavrookas: China launches ~30 warships annually versus 5 to 10 US ships
“We being the U.S. Launch about five to 10 military, meaning destroyer, cruiser, aircraft carrier, like straight naval vessel warship. China's probably doing about 30, so six to one, seven to one, somewhere in there.”
Mavrookas: US shipbuilding capacity currently sits at 100,000 gross tons
“That's our initial build out that 1.5 X's the United States shipbuilding capacity right now, which sits at a 100,000 gross tons.”
Mavrookas: Saronic achieved first ever autonomous combat search and rescue
“Take the Apache pilot rescue, for example, that was the first ever combat search and rescue done with an autonomous system.”
Beck: Branson poured $1.2B into Virgin Orbit before it went bankrupt
“And, you know, at that, at the time, our nearest competitor was Virgin Orbit, and that was funded by, you know, Sir Richard Branson. And in the end, I think Richard put 1.2 billion dollars into that company before it ultimately went bankrupt with a, you know, …”
Lamm: Woolly mice are second most genetically modified organisms behind dire wolves
“These are the second most genetically modified
Multicellular organisms on the planet after our direwolves.”
Lamm: Earth is forecasted to lose 50% of biodiversity within 25 years
“It's currently forecasted that we're going to lose up to 50% of all biodiversity in the next 25 years.”
Lamm: ViaGen cloning efficiency reached 80% versus 2% industry norm
“Well, Viagen had like cloning efficiencies at 80%, or most people are at two percent, right?”
Monroe-Anderson says 90% of Russian Shahed drones are intercepted midair
“Now that's really coming true, where, like, 90% of the DeepStrike Shawhead drones that Russia is using are getting taken out of the sky before they can even hit a target.”
Monroe-Anderson: China is supplying drone components to both Ukraine and Russia
“China is supplying drones and components to both sides. So to Ukraine and to Russia, and they have by far the strongest drone and just electronics industrial base.”
China completely dominates PCB precursor chemicals used in US defense systems
“Printed circuit boards, they use precursor materials. The manufacturing uses precursor materials that is completely dominated by China. So, even if you go to one of these board shops in America that, that specializes in, you know, ITAR, Exquisite, like, they c…”
Tony Kim: Chip companies have higher profit margins than software or pharmaceuticals
“They have the highest profitability of any company in the world of the sector is chip companies. They're higher margins than software, pharmaceuticals, industrials, telecom, anything.”
Tony Kim: China has 30 to 40 potential robotics IPOs this year
“I'm looking at the current pipeline. I see 30, 40 potential IPOs this year in China.”
Friedberg: CBO Projects Social Security Runs Out of Money in Five Years
“We have five years till Social Security is bankrupt. That's not my assessment. That's the CBO score. Like, that's what the CBO says is gonna happen. Congressional Budget Office. When you look at how much is going to get paid out and what the pay in rate is, so…”
Friedberg: US billionaires hold $8T of $183T wealth while bottom 50% hold $4T
“And I was surprised that the billionaires had eight trillion dollars of the 183, and the bottom 50% have four trillion. That's a bad statistic. But it's not as crazy as you would think. And even if you make it a fifty million dollar net worth, it's 23 trillion…”
Patel: EU countries block French data centers to protect nuclear power
“Paris is you know, they have all this spare power. One of the funny things is like, they're like, oh, okay, let's build a bunch of data centers. But then Spain, Italy, Belgium the Netherlands and Germany All freaked out because it's like, oh wait, all this spa…”
Liang: SambaNova serves 1.5T parameter models on one rack versus 10-20
“And so with sum it over, that minimum quantum is down to one rack. Right, where if you have other, other service providers, you just run, say, a DeepSeq model, which is now one and a half trillion parameters, just to run that, the minimum for some of the other…”
Feldman: Cerebras AI inference is 20x faster than competitors
“And we're the fastest, not by a little bit, but by 20 x.”
Miller: Monthly AI token spend will go well above $500M
“I'm very bullish that we're going to go well above that.”
Armstrong: 80% of Crypto Trading Volume Moved Offshore
“Like most people don't know that 80% of the trading volume went offshore for crypto because of the lack of clarity in the US.”
Armstrong: AI Agents Will Use Base Wallets to Form an Agentic Economy
“We're also going to see AI agents have their own financial accounts, and we're powering that with the base, like, MCP API so they can have their own self-custodial wallet now and start to have a true agentic economy, paying for goods and services, hiring other…”
Slotowicz: High-end private jets are appreciating in value for the first time
“These airplanes, you know, airplanes are equipment, right? They don't go up in value normally, but we're seeing them go up in value for the first time almost ever, especially in the higher end of the market.”
Slotowicz: FBO event landing slots can cost $20,000 to $40,000
“I mean, of course there's Superbowl and there's like all those, and sometimes those can get ridiculous. They could be in the twenties or thirties or 40,000 dollars just for a short slot to drop off or pick up.”
Weinberg: Lawyers cannot distinguish synthetic legal docs from human-written ones
“But the thing that happened with like the last generation of coding models is you can actually take sets of documents and create synthetic docs that are so good that the lawyers can't tell the difference between whether they're created, you know, by an actual …”
Facebook's early secondary policy inadvertently caused employees to quit to sell stock
“Facebook got big, and it turned out that the company kind of couldn't buy all their shares that were, that people were selling, because the dollar amount just got so big, and the volume got so high, and they basically started telling people, like, if you sell …”
Singerman claims a 12-year 3x venture fund loses to Vanguard
“A venture fund, like, three X's over the course of, like, 10 to 12 years, I don't even think that that beats the S&P. I'm pretty sure it, like, loses to a Vanguard no-load index fund.”
Tandon: General Catalyst bought Summa Health as it faced impending bankruptcy
“And part of that means going to Akron, Ohio, buying a system that was on track to go bankrupt in, in the next couple of years and transforming it with AI.”
Rangwalla: Samsung and SK Hynix Generate More Cash Flow Than Hyperscalers
“Samsung and Hynix together generate more cash flow than every hyperscaler.”
Adcock: Figure robots run entirely on Helix vision-language-action model
“You can't write code to make this work. So all of our robots here run on a neural network we call Helix. It's a vision language action model we designed here internally to tell the robot what to go do, to stay balanced, like how to move its joints basically fr…”
Adcock: No humanoid robot has demonstrated 7-10 failure-free autonomous hours daily
“I want to be able to put a robot into a home and be able to do, like, seven to 10 hours of work successfully without failures, with, like, to know, like, with no human intervention and do that every day forever. It's just, like, a hard problem. Nobody's ever s…”
Harrison: $1M in Ukrainian Drones Destroyed a Third of Russia's Bomber Fleet
“So in Ukraine, there was this, I think it was called Operation Spiderweb, where, ah, Ukraine snuck basically like under false floorboards of a truck. They snuck a million dollars of worth of drones into Russian territory. And then the drones basically took fli…”