The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 120 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 120 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Mavrookas: Saronic will test a hypersonic missile before a manned Navy vessel
“We're actually going to be able to launch a hypersonic missile off of the back of Marauder, which is an autonomous ship, Before the Navy completes their first test of a hypersonic missile off of a manned vessel.”
Lamm: Colossal could birth an extinct species within 12 months
“The next 12 months, I'm looking forward to Colossal potentially having the next birthed extinct species.”
Jain: Open source models will dominate AI inferencing within two years
“Well, I think open source models are going to dominate AI inferencing. You know, you'll see in the next two years, we'll shift to where's almost no open source to where's going to be almost all open source.”
Cook: Keyboards and mice will be obsolete within five years
“We're gonna look back in five years and say, of course we're not using keyboards and mice anymore. Like, we've come up with a better way to interact with intelligence.”
Johnston: SpaceX will reach a $10 trillion valuation within years
“My hottest take right now is that the SpaceX IPO is the, gonna be viewed historically as the most undervalued IPO of all time. I think they will tear through 10 trillion within, you know, certainly within the next couple of years, and then have almost unlimite…”
Singerman predicts proposed wealth taxes will go national across the US
“Oh, that's definitely going national.”
Raanan: An Israeli cybersecurity startup will reach a $50B valuation by 2032
“I'm pretty sure that in, in, in six years, maybe less, we'll see a fifty billion dollar and a hundred billion dollar cyber security company out of Israel. You know. I take it like take it like a fact, like, you know, the sun was, would rise tomorrow. You know,…”
Siemiatkowski: Klarna cut headcount from 7,400 to 3,000 while doubling revenue
“Klana has gotten so much attention around our efficiency gains, and we've gone from 7400 people to 3000, while, you know, our revenue has doubled since then. So, our revenue per employee went from 450,000 dollars per employee to over a million now.”
Shadbolt: One-million-qubit quantum computer will outperform all global conventional compute
“A single million qubit quantum computer would outperform The net total of conventional computing on the entire planet. So you take all of the supercomputers on the planet, you take every AWS system, every Azure system, you add them all together, and we trash t…”
McGee: Jony Ive and OpenAI's AI Device Will Just Become an iPhone App
“I think it becomes an iPhone app.”
Agrawal: Humans Will Not Need to Work to Earn a Living by 2035
“I suspect in five to 10 years, we wouldn't have to work to earn a living anymore.”
Power: Demographic decline will pressure Xi Jinping to act before 2037-2042
“We just have to last till about 2037, 20 42, and then kind of overnight China's working population will cut in half, and then they can try again in another thousand years. So that will put a lot of pressure in our opinion on Xi to actually do something, becaus…”
Mavrookas: South Korean and Japanese shipbuilders source modules and labor from China
“Our allies, South Korea and Japan, the next two largest shipbuilders in the world, they're actually, on the commercial side, they're actually getting a lot of their modules from China. They're getting a lot of their labor from China.”
Mavrookas: Port Alpha will create 10,000 jobs and $160B economic impact
“So what we're going to do at Port Alpha, you mentioned 10 years, over the next 10 years, we're going to create 10,000 jobs. We're going to invest billions of dollars. I mean, we're going to have a hundred and sixty billion dollar economic impact in Brownsville…”
Tony Kim: Utility-scale, million-qubit quantum computers will arrive around 2030
“It's very interesting when you look at these long-dated technologies. All roads converge to 2030. It's like quantum computing, utility scale, logically error-corrected, million-qubit quantum computer, twenty-thirty.”
Friedberg predicts Ro Khanna will be HUD Secretary under President AOC
“I think he'll likely end up being secretary of housing and urban development. If AOC is elected president.”
Banister: Anduril will consolidate market share and become a top defense prime
“I do think that obviously Enduro is gonna consolidate a lot of it and become one of the top defense primes over time.”
Clements: 7x more CFOs are telling developers to increase AI token spending
“We did this survey of developers, and we asked them how many of them had a CFO who was telling them to spend less on Consumption versus more, and we actually found that seven times more companies are being told to, like, let it rip and spin more.”
Pincus: Multi-trillion tech companies will reach $10T to $20T valuations
“I think these two to five trillion dollar companies are going to be 10 to 20 trillion dollar companies or more.”
Mueller predicts Deneb will be the highest-performing hydrocarbon engine ever
“This engine will probably be the highest performing hydrocarbon engine ever flown because it's, it has a very high area ratio.”
Adcock: Figure will reach full lights-out manufacturing where robots build robots
“At some point here, it'll just be like it'll just be full lights out manufacturing. We'll have like robots only building robots and sending out to the world. Robots will be getting into boxes themselves. Other robots will be boxing them up and we'll be shippin…”
Exowatt targets 1 cent per kWh via mass-produced modular solar thermal units
“What's new really about our approach and our hypothesis is making this in a modular fashion, making this in a factory. And then scaling the production to millions and ultimately billions of these, which ultimately allows us to go down the cost curve and genera…”
Happi: Hyperscaler data center buildouts will keep scaling through 2030
“So I would say until 2030, there's no doubt that this is going to continue to scale at this rate. The question is like, what happens after 2030, and is it going to continue beyond that?”
Immerman: Rideshare market will grow by at least 10x in coming years
“And so the ride share market is going to grow by You know, at least in order of magnitude in the coming years.”
Immerman: Top 1% venture outcome will reach $40B in 8-10 years
“Every five years, that, that top one percent outcome doubles. And so, if you were to fast forward another, you know, eight to 10 years, That's forty billion is the top one percent outcome.”
Lin: Top companies will reach $10 trillion valuations within ten years
“Today we have companies that are worth four and a half to five trillion dollars. If you give it another five to 10 years, those companies continue to compound. It will be worth 10 trillion or more.”
Maguire: SpaceX Starship will fly reliably and reusably in 2026
“I think Elon and the company have gained a lot of confidence that Starship is going to be flying like reliably and reusable this year in 20, 26. Like that's my strong sense.”
Schimpf: Europe will spend 4x US defense procurement over next five years
“Europe is going to spend something like
Four times the amount of procurement that the U S is over the next five years.”
Schimpf: Europe will outspend US procurement fourfold over next five years
“Europe is going to spend something like four times the amount of procurement that the U.S. Is over the next five years.”
Bhargava predicts multiple $100B AI-native compounders in public markets by 2035
“And so we think there'll be plenty of these hundred billion dollar AI native compounders in the public markets 10 years from now,”
Ulevitch predicts China will sever U.S. battery supply chain in conflict
“If they all come from China, and we ever get into a real conflict with China, whether it's an economic conflict or an actual kinetic conflict, like, They're going to cut us off.”
Barton predicts Meta will 3x in market cap in five years
“Like, I think Facebook is going to be, you know, a three X in five years.”
Chaddha: AI startups will capture 90% of VC funding within a year
“I think it's going to be 90% in a year.”
Shadbolt: Quantum computers will solve simulations impossible on classical supercomputers
“Our conventional supercomputers suck at predicting the properties of these microscopic things. And that happens to be exactly the set of problems where a quantum computer is perfectly suited and where we will solve problems that can never be solved by any conv…”
Altman: AI will do tens of millions of US jobs by 2030
“I think AI will be doing tens of millions of jobs in the US by then that are currently being done by a person.”
Startups will soon jump directly from seed rounds to Series C
“Like, yes, you'll probably have to raise again, but it'll just be interesting, and I think we'll see multiple examples of, like, a company raised a seed, and then a company raised, like, a Series C.”
Tunguz: AI inference costs will drop by another 1,000x
“I think you've seen a thousand X reduction in overall inference costs in the last three years. I think we'll probably see another thousand X reduction.”
Guo: Passes will reach a billion-dollar valuation just by acquiring creators
“If we're being very blunt, like, I think we will reach, like, a billion dollars doing nothing more except getting new creators, but obviously, like, we have bigger ambitions than that, right?”
Socher: AI agents will outnumber human web surfers within years
“I think in the next few years, we're going to see more AI agents surfing the web for people than we'll have people surfing the web.”
Radiant microreactors meet NRC radiation limits outside a 35-foot perimeter
“We are down at one megawatt, so enough power for 1000 homes. And we can mass produce these in a factory, deliver them to a site, and with no infrastructure just outside of a 35 foot fence line, you can operate them and be at the NRC public dose limit for a rea…”
Power: Global reserve currency status will flip in 20-30 years
“We are 20 or 30 years away from the reserve currency flipping, which happens roughly every a 120 years.”
Mavrookas: China controls 57% of global shipbuilding capacity
“China has 57% of total global shipbuilding capacity.”
Mavrookas: China built 1,000+ commercial ships in 2024 versus five US ships
“They built over a thousand commercial ships last year, and the United States built five. I think this was 20, 24. Five. Like one, two, three, four, Five large ocean going commercial vessels.”
Mavrookas: Port Alpha's 800-acre footprint makes it largest US shipyard
“Just that footprint alone will make it the largest shipyard in the country.”
Mavrookas: Saronic will bring online 150,000 gross tons of capacity within years
“We're going to bring online a 150,000 gross tons of capacity within a few years.”