The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 101 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Sadeghi: Nucleus is the first company to optimize embryos for IQ
“This is the first time a company has partnered with a couple who have optimized their embryos on the basis of intelligence.”
Mansoor: Kalshi's federal regulation allows sports trading across all 50 states
“It's the first time that sports, like, trading on sports is actually legal in all 50 states. Because we are regulated by the, you know, by the feds, like, at the federal level, not state by state. And the federal regulation, like, the law actually supersedes s…”
Liang: SambaNova 10kW SN40 rack outperformed 140kW Nvidia GPU racks
“And so by the time we released SN-Forty a couple years ago, it became incredibly popular, because instead of a 130, a 140 kilowatt rack of NVIDIA GPU, we were outperforming them with a 10 kilowatt SN-Forty rack.”
Taylor: Russia funded German environmental groups to shut down nuclear reactors
“This was sort of a theory for a long time, but it's actually proven now that this did happen in Europe over the last 10 years. So Russian groups funded far left environmental groups in Germany to shut the reactors down in order, you know, to make it so that Ge…”
Socher: You.com invented RAG at web scale before the term existed
“We realized just like with rag where we had invented rag already, we're doing it at a web scale, but it wasn't yet a term.”
Lamm: Woolly mice are second most genetically modified organisms behind dire wolves
“These are the second most genetically modified
Multicellular organisms on the planet after our direwolves.”
Lamm: Earth is forecasted to lose 50% of biodiversity within 25 years
“It's currently forecasted that we're going to lose up to 50% of all biodiversity in the next 25 years.”
Friedberg: CBO Projects Social Security Runs Out of Money in Five Years
“We have five years till Social Security is bankrupt. That's not my assessment. That's the CBO score. Like, that's what the CBO says is gonna happen. Congressional Budget Office. When you look at how much is going to get paid out and what the pay in rate is, so…”
Patel: EU countries block French data centers to protect nuclear power
“Paris is you know, they have all this spare power. One of the funny things is like, they're like, oh, okay, let's build a bunch of data centers. But then Spain, Italy, Belgium the Netherlands and Germany All freaked out because it's like, oh wait, all this spa…”
Tandon: General Catalyst bought Summa Health as it faced impending bankruptcy
“And part of that means going to Akron, Ohio, buying a system that was on track to go bankrupt in, in the next couple of years and transforming it with AI.”
Rangwalla: Samsung and SK Hynix Generate More Cash Flow Than Hyperscalers
“Samsung and Hynix together generate more cash flow than every hyperscaler.”
Opendoor's earnings livestream peaked at a record 55,000 viewers
“Our earnings was the most watched earnings in history. The last National Open House we did broke records for how many people watched it. No. Yeah, by a lot, but not by a lot. We should fact check this, but I think at one point we had 55,000 live viewers.”
Blania: World has the world's largest crypto wallet by user count
“And so now we actually, we have the largest wallet in the world in terms of users.”
Archer is the only major eVTOL manufacturer selling directly to airlines
“We're kind of the only game in town. Our competitor really wants to operate. And so if you want to buy aircraft, we're kind of the only game in town to really do that from.”
Peters: Nearly 85% of US health system revenue comes from drugs and surgery
“In America, close to 85% of health system revenue comes from two sources.
Do you know what those are?
Tell us.
Pharmaceuticals and surgery.”
Fiedler: All 20 of Coca-Cola's billion-dollar brands are declining year-over-year
“Coca-Cola has 20 brands that do over a billion dollars. Every single one of them is decreasing in sales year over year, and they haven't innovated at all.”
O'Shea: NYC Surpassed SF in New Founders Starting Companies Last Quarter
“Someone sent me a data report like a day or two ago that New York finally surpassed San Francisco in the number of new founders that have just started companies in the last quarter.”
Asparouhov: Post-2012 top Midas List VCs heavily skew toward operators
“And if you look at, you know, sort of top hundred on the Midas list, for VCs, they started their careers sort of pre-thousand-twelve called versus post-thousand-twelve. Pre-thousand-twelve, there was definitely a large number of investors that were pure sort o…”
Monroe-Anderson: China produces tens to hundreds of millions of drones annually
“China has been the biggest beneficiary because they've been supplying both sides of the war and probably making, I mean, tens of millions of drones per year easily, maybe in the hundreds of millions.”
Harrison: The DoD represents sub-1% of global R&D spending today
“Today it is sub one percent of global R&D.”
Bry: Skydio drones respond to 911 calls in most major cities
“Skydio drones are in most major cities responding to nine one calls today at sort of small scale, like maybe part of the city, some fraction of the incidents that they're dealing with.”
Data centers sign power contracts between 20 and 30 cents per kWh
“And if you think about data centers, they're signing contracts as, you know, on the mid range, 20 cents a kilowatt hour, up to 30 cents a kilowatt hour.”
Immerman: Under five public software and fintech companies grow 30%+
“If you were to scan public internet software fintech, there are fewer than five percent, sorry, there are fewer than five companies growing north of 30%.
This year.”
Raanan: Cyberstarts portfolio is over 50% of global private cybersecurity market cap
“Our portfolio company Companies are making up more than 50% of the worldwide market cap for private cyber security companies.”
Raanan: Wiz scaled quarterly sales from $1M to $24M in year one
“The first four quarters, if I'm Remembering correctly, they sold a million dollar, and then two million dollars, and then eight million dollars in the third quarter, and then twenty four million dollars in the fourth quarter.”
Franceschi: Brex will be third-largest US corporate card on day one
“And then you look on this on day one after closing, Brexit will be the third largest corporate card in the country.”
Franceschi: Incumbent ERP companies will not build autonomous AI agents
“You have existing incumbents in the finance space, like the ERP companies, for example, I don't think they're going to go do that.”
Maguire: Starlink scaled to a $1B run rate within 12 months
“And then after Starlink got to about a billion of revenue, which was very fast, it was about 12 months after they got their first dollar of revenue, they were at about a billion of run rate,”
Luckey: Marine Corps started hundreds of fires at Camp Pendleton last year
“The Marine Corps itself started hundreds of fires on their weapons training range last year alone, just at Camp Pendleton.”
US defense procurement relative to GDP is at an all-time low
“The procurement budget as a percentage of GDP, for example, is I think the lowest it's ever been.”
Tusk: NYC municipal recycling ends up in the same landfill as trash
“As someone who worked in New York City government for a long time, it all goes in the same landfill.”
O'Shea: Carta data shows concentrated venture funds outperform broad portfolios
“Turns out highly concentrated funds, typically like 20 companies per portfolio. Outperforms spray and pray, but spray and pray looks pretty good.”
Shadbolt: GlobalFoundries is the last remaining US tier-one pure-play foundry
“GF is really the last remaining pure play semiconductor, like tier one semiconductor foundry in the United States. So we offshored huge fractions of our semiconductor industry, as far as like a high volume, 300 millimeter foundry that is making chips for indus…”
Strachman: The American gap year did not exist before the Thiel Fellowship
“The American gap year did not exist when the fellowship started. It was not a thing. No one talked about taking gap years here, and now it's super common.”
Agrawal: ChatGPT Daily Time Spent Exceeds Mainstream Social Apps Like X
“On, in terms of time spent, you know, we've published this analysis. They are far and above time spent per user per day compared to any of the other apps AI apps today. Actually not just AI apps. I, you know, one of the analysis we did is they are now larger t…”
Maslin: Virtually 100% of Magnet-Making Equipment Comes from China
“If China manufactures, 94% of the global supply of these magnets, where do you think all of the equipment to make those magnets comes from? It's virtually a hundred percent.”
Nolan: Vogtle Nuclear Plant Was Cheaper Than Contemporary Offshore Wind
“If you look at nuclear historically, like you look at Vogel, which You know, it was over budget, over schedule. People still highlight it was still cheaper than offshore wind that was built around the same time.”
O'Shea: 50% of LPs have stopped allocating to venture capital
“Carta put out a report a couple months ago on different LP trends, and about 50% are not allocating into venture anymore, and so that, that's being cut away.”
Vasavada: 60% chance of a recession in late 2025 or early 2026
“If it's not this year, it would be late, like Q-three, Q-four it'll probably be early next year.
What do you think the current odds are on that?
I would say, 60% chance of a recession.”
Power: Fed will cut rates close to 2021 ZERP levels within 12 months
“I think that we have so much headroom in the federal reserve rate, that I think we're going to see dramatic cuts close to twenty-twenty-one ZERP levels over the next 12 months.”
O'Shea: Carta report shows 50% of LPs are exiting venture allocations
“Carta actually just put out a report, I covered it in Sorcery, that LPs are committing less to the category, about 50% are not going to be allocating to venture anymore.”
Jacob Peters: 8,000 chemicals in US food supply do not exist in Europe
“8000 chemicals exist in the U.S. Food supply. Jacob Peters: That don't exist in Europe.”
Every early-stage VC entering the Midas List since 2015 is an operator
“If you look at the post call, 2015 time frame, the people that make it onto the Midas list, which while an imperfect list is maybe the closest that we have to an objective ranking function of VCs the, you know, sort of the only ones that have made it down to t…”
Mansoor: Kalshi captured 7% of sports handle in its launch week
“I mean, I think we got like something like seven percent of the handle within seven days of launch which is huge. Like it's a testament to how big this could be. And I think we were fourth in handle.”
Socher: You.com was first to bring LLMs into search
“We're the first to bring LLMs into the search engine space and have some exciting patents some already given some pending on that”
Sadeghi predicts Nucleus will sequence 500,000 whole genomes by 2026
“I think we can actually, I think two years from now, we can get half a million samples. Two years from today, I think we could do that.”
Noone: Hardware engineers historically lacked code-based CAD automation tools
“And that code allows scripting, automation, scaling, things like equations and database lookups and logic, things that sound obvious to anyone who's done software before. Of course, you'd think that software could write a loop that changes the geometry of a fe…”